Pierce's Picks - Week 16

It's been an eventful season and it's winding down. The playoff pictures are mostly clear, but there's still plenty of excitement to be had.

I went a rough 8-8 last week, taking my season mark to 142-82.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Carolina (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)

Saturday Night -
Dallas (5-9) @ Arizona (4-10)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (12-2) @ Buffalo (4-10)
NY Jets (10-4) @ Chicago (10-4)
Baltimore (10-4) @ Cleveland (5-9)
San Francisco (5-9) @ St. Louis (6-8)
Detroit (4-10) @ Miami (7-7)
Washington (5-9) @ Jacksonville (8-6)
Tennessee (5-9) @ Kansas City (9-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (8-6) @ Oakland (7-7)
Houston (5-9) @ Denver (3-11)
San Diego (8-6) @ Cincinnati (3-11)
Seattle (6-8) @ Tampa Bay (8-6)
NY Giants (9-5) @ Green Bay (8-6)

Sunday Night -
Minnesota (5-9) @ Philadelphia (10-4)

Monday Night -
New Orleans (10-4) @ Atlanta (12-2)

That's a great Monday Night matchup there, but I'm not betting against the Falcons in their dome, no way. Meanwhile, I'm starting to feel bad for the Vikings - that's a nice run on national TV they've got going, at a time when the team has really just fallen to pieces. I'm amused by the NFL Network's various attempts to sell the Panthers/Steelers game... ouch. I'm not seeing a lot of upsets this week, I think most teams are plotted on their course. I do like the Jets over the Bears, though, as they regain their swagger. I also like Green Bay over the Giants with Aaron Rodgers playing. I think the Rams put the nail in the 49ers season (finally) as they march to 8-8 and the NFC West title. I also like the Lions to notch a 3rd-straight win against a Dolphins team incapable of winning on their own turf, although I admit I like them better with Drew Stanton than Shaun Hill right now, who reportedly took 1st-team reps in practice today. I like Oakland to upset the Colts, though... I don't buy the Colts and I think a team with upfront toughness like the Raiders has a legitimate shot to pound them. I'm tempted to pick Denver over Houston, as I think Tebow will gut that team to at least one win while he's starting, but... that defense is horrible and I expect the Texans to shred 'em no matter what Tebow does.

The Draft Race is on. Carolina has the inside track on the 1st overall pick and I think they'll hold onto it. It'll be interesting to see, though, if Denver and Cincinnati remain the 2/3 or if they win a game or two and let the 4-win teams have a track at the top 3.

My hat's off to Devin Hester of the Bears - 14 KR/PR TDs in 5 seasons is actually a bit misleading... he didn't score any KR/PR TDs in two of those five seasons when the Bears tried to convert him to a full-time WR (and subsequently didn't make the playoffs). So in reality, that's 14 KR/PR TDs in 3 seasons as a full-time returner. What a talent. And what humility - I saw his post-game press conference and he wanted to make sure his 10 special teams teammates got as much glory as he did. It was really something to see him get choked up when a reporter asked him how he felt about those guys. As electric as a guy like DeSean Jackson is, it's clear right there that he's got nothing on Hester in the character department. Congratulations to Hester - who will undoubtedly add much, much more to that current record total.

Pierce's Picks - Week 15

Last week was an impressive 13-3, improving my season mark to 134-74.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
San Francisco (5-8) @ San Diego (7-6)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-8) @ Cincinnati (2-11)
Washington (5-8) @ Dallas (4-9)
Houston (5-8) @ Tennessee (5-8)
Jacksonville (8-5) @ Indianapolis (7-6)
Kansas City (8-5) @ St. Louis (6-7)
Buffalo (3-10) @ Miami (7-6)
Detroit (3-10) @ Tampa Bay (8-5)
Arizona (4-9) @ Carolina (1-12)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Baltimore (9-4)
Philadelphia (9-4) @ NY Giants (9-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (11-2) @ Seattle (6-7)
NY Jets (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (10-3)
Denver (3-10) @ Oakland (6-7)

Sunday Night -
Green Bay (8-5) @ New England (11-2)

Monday Night -
Chicago (9-4) @ Minnesota (5-8)

Where to begin... I'd like Kansas City if Matt Cassel were healthy, but he's not, so St. Louis gets a big win there in their quest to win the worst division in football. The Jets/Steelers matchup looked good a couple weeks ago, but you have to believe the Steelers defense has a field day with the Jets. If Green Bay can't put Aaron Rodgers on the field, they don't hold a candle to the Patriots and their slim playoff hopes are snuffed out. I think the Lions have a fair shit at breaking their road losing streak against a bruised and banged-up Bucs defense, but I'm still not betting on them on the road. The Vikings look abysmal and I don't see that improving, sadly, especially not outside in the cold, as they should be Monday Night. Jacksonville against Indianapolis for the division should be a fun game, but I like the Jags to get over the hump against a Colts team missing too many parts to function efficiently. Miami plays poorly at home, Buffalo could play spoiler there. I think Dallas gets revenge for their most humiliating loss earlier this season against Washington. I think Cincinnati picks up another win because, as dysfunctional as that team is, Jake Delhomme is simply awful and I can't bet on a team playing him to win again, ever. Which is sad, because I won my first fantasy football championship with him as my quarterback. If Colt McCoy were playing, I'd like the Browns in this one, but he's not, so it's all Bengals. Big game for the NFC East this weekend too, as it comes down to this - and I like the Giants. They almost beat Philadelphia last time, if not for an unfortunate Eli Manning fumble. I think they win at home and take the division.

Also, I'm going to say it here first, my first draft prediction for 2011 - Andrew Luck of Stanford will not declare and will be quarterbacking Stanford next season.

Pierce's Picks - Week 14

Last week was 11-5, putting me at 121-71 on the season thusfar.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Indianapolis (6-6) @ Tennessee (5-7)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Cleveland (5-7) @ Buffalo (2-10)
Green Bay (8-4) @ Detroit (2-10)
NY Giants (8-4) @ Minnesota (5-7)
Cincinnati (2-10) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Tampa Bay (7-5) @ Washington (5-7)
Atlanta (10-2) @ Carolina (1-11)
Oakland (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (6-6) @ San Francisco (4-8)
St. Louis (6-6) @ New Orleans (9-3)
New England (10-2) @ Chicago (9-3)
Miami (6-6) @ NY Jets (9-3)
Denver (3-9) @ Arizona (3-9)
Kansas City (8-4) @ San Diego (6-6)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (8-4) @ Dallas (4-8)

Monday Night -
Baltimore (8-4) @ Houston (5-7)

Big win if the Patriots can beat the Bears in Soldier Field, I think. Do the Jets bounce back against Miami? I think so. Dallas is a possible trap for Philly, as are the Lions for the Packers, but I think the better team wins in both. KC/SD could be a very good game... Indy's season goes down in flames if they lose to Tennessee. St. Louis could make a statement with a win against the Saints. Lots of losing teams at home against winning teams... there will be some upsets, but it's hard to see where.

Pierce's Picks - Week 13

I gambled on my Lions last week and the other traditional Thanksgiving team, the Cowboys, last week, against my better judgment, and paid for it with two losses. As a result, I went 9-7 last week.

On the season, that means I'm 110-66.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Houston (5-6) @ Philadelphia (7-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (8-3) @ Cincinnati (2-9)
Chicago (8-3) @ Detroit (2-9)
San Francisco (4-7) @ Green Bay (7-4)
Jacksonville (6-5) @ Tennessee (5-6)
Denver (3-8) @ Kansas City (7-4)
Cleveland (4-7) @ Miami (6-5)
Buffalo (2-9) @ Minnesota (4-7)
Washington (5-6) @ NY Giants (7-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Oakland (5-6) @ San Diego (6-5)
Atlanta (9-2) @ Tampa Bay (7-4)
Carolina (1-10) @ Seattle (5-6)
St. Louis (5-6) @ Arizona (3-8)
Dallas (3-8) @ Indianapolis (6-5)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (8-3) @ Baltimore (8-3)

Monday Night -
NY Jets (9-2) @ New England (9-2)

What a slate of primetime games this week. Well, not so much HOU/PHI (really, Houston's defense against Philly's offense? Go go Eagles for fantasy this week!). But that BAL/PIT and that NYJ/NE game... both of those are huge. Possibly the four best teams in the NFL there and both games will have huge impacts on those division races. Can't ask for better primetime games than that at this stage of the season. If Minnesota beats Buffalo, I'll buy into them a little right now, but Buffalo is one scrappy team and they keep pushing everyone they play to the max. I have more respect for them than the Vikings right now, so we'll see if they make good on it. I don't like the Lions to win, but the Bears should be wary of that as a trap game... I want to believe it, but that Patriots game left a really bad taste in my mouth. I could see Seattle losing to the Panthers, possibly, too. Also, Colts beware, but I expect them to play angry after the Chargers embarrassed them. Tennessee won't win another game until they have a credible QB starting again.