Pierce's Pick - Super Bowl XLV

I called the big game correctly, so I'm 6-4 on the playoffs. So, without further ado...

Sunday, February 6th, 2011, at 6:30pm ET -
Super Bowl XLV
The Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC 2-seed) @ The Green Bay Packers (NFC 6-seed)

It took me about a week to decide who to pick for this game. This is one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls I can remember and I honestly believe the best team from both conferences is playing. The Steelers are #1 in points-allowed defense. The Packers are #2. Both have franchise quarterbacks. Both have experienced receiving corps featuring a aged veteran, a younger speedster, and a cast of lesser-known skill receivers. Both have battled injury all season. Both have an iconic playmaker in the secondary. Both have monsters in the linebacking corps. These teams are closely matched.

The differences come here: the Steelers have Super Bowl experience and, perhaps more importantly, rings. The Steelers have backups at every position on the offensive line. The Packers have an unknown at running back. Rodgers posts godly number inside. The Steelers don't match up as well against 4 or 5 receiver sets. Rodgers hasn't performed on a stage this big before.

As far as football logic goes, I ask myself a simple question - given that I expect a close game, if it comes down to one team trailing by 4 with 2 minutes left, from their own 20, do I trust Ben against the Packer defense or Rodgers against the Steeler defense to make the game-winning drive? And in football logic, I would take the experienced, ringed hand of Roethlisberger in that situation normally.

But I don't see Ben with 3 rings in 7 years. I don't see Tomlin with 2 in 4. It's easy to go with experience, but sometimes hunger trumps that. This is a Packer team with swagger, a team that's overcome a lot to get where it is, playing with a chip on its shoulder. Like the Steelers, they can play whatever game they need to in order to win. Have I mentioned Rodgers posts godly numbers indoors?

I like both teams. I think both are built to be good for a long time - perhaps enough so that they'll meet again like this. I think both build properly - by developing young players through the draft and avoiding big free agent moves. Both are long-standing franchises of good reputation. Both are franchises beloved by the blue-collar working man. They're gritty teams, punch-you-in-the-mouth, we-play-in-the-cold teams that it's hard not to respect, if nothing else. But I'm playing my gut this weekend. My gut says Green Bay wins, that these two teams match up well enough across the board that, ultimately, it becomes a game of willpower and hunger and I think in that category, Green Bay wins.

The Lombardi Trophy goes home to Green Bay on Sunday.