Three Game 7s! Excellent! Surprising ones, too. But the East has wrapped up and the semifinals start tonight with the first Phoenix/Nashville game, and start in earnest tomorrow with two games (Wash/NY and STL/LA).
I went 3-1 in my Eastern picks, only whiffing on Boston, but every series went much longer than I expected, other than the unceremonious ousting of the Penguins by the Flyers. The East turned out to be much tougher than I expected, top-to-bottom.
Eastern Conference Semifinals -
New York (1-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
This is the series I'm really for this round. While I like the potential between St. Louis and Los Angeles for a defensive struggle, this is a series that's packed across the ice - great goaltending, solid defense, potentially explosive offense. The Rangers kept their poise after Ottawa took them to the brink; Washington did the same against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Without the pressure of a high seed or a wildly successful regular season, is this the year for the Caps? They seem to have a certain swagger, but it's hard to trust their playoff legs. Washington is a sexy pick here, and for good reason, but New York's stability is hard to question. Holtby's a great story but can he keep it going? I expect this series to be close and to go the distance. The difference between going home and advancing might be one bad bounce.
New York in 7.
Philadelphia (5-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
I expected both teams to win and be here; I didn't expect the Devils to take so long to do it. The Flyers are rested and coming off an emotional series domination of their in-state rival. They're physical, riding high, and forcing teams to play their way. The Devils left Florida push them to the brink. I don't think the Flyers will be so kind. Bryzgalov barely outplayed Fleury in Pittsburgh, though; he has to be better to beat Brodeur.
Philadelphia in 6.
The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Boston (2-seed)
This just had the feeling of a tumultuous, unfulfilling season for Boston, ever since that Tim Thomas/White House stuff got built up. There's no run here, but Boston's core should remain. The real question going forward will be to stick with Thomas or not, since he's been painted as a somewhat divisive figure on the team. The Bruins don't have a lot of cap room, but they also don't have a lot of expiring contracts, with Rolston being the biggest one that stands out. No reason to worry too much here.
Florida (3-seed)
I don't see how this season can't be considered a huge success. In Dave Tallon's first year as GM, he took an annual bottom-feeder and won the division. They've got a handful of expiring contracts, but plenty of cap space to throw around. This team can continue to build and should, in theory, build on their success, also. Their biggest problem will be finding reasons to avoid relocation.
Pittsburgh (4-seed)
On the flip-side from Florida, Penguins fans can't consider this season anything other than a raging disappointment. After a slow start early, the Pens fired up and Malkin carried them to a strong 4-seed finish. Crosby returned, galvanizing hype and making them the top pick for the Cup. So much for that. Out-muscled, out-hustled, and out-played by the Flyers, they looked ill-prepared and weak in one of the ugliest playoff series I've seen in awhile. They suddenly have a huge problem in goal, where Marc-Andre Fleury spent the playoffs doing his best impression of Swiss cheese. However, the Pens' core players are locked up for next year, so there's no reason to believe they won't compete at a high level again. But this postseason was particularly crushing to them, and we'll have to see how it affects their psyche when the puck drops again in October.
Ottawa (8-seed)
After being absent from the playoffs for some years, Ottawa returned this year to give the 1-seed Rangers a shocking run for their money. They're comfortable with the cap, and while they've got some expiring contracts, their core guys are set for next year. They're in a very similar position as Florida - good cap room, most contracts set, lots of room to maneuver for next year. Just a matter of how they spend what they've got and how the success of this season affects them going forward.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
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The Western Conference Semifinals
We'll have to wait a couple more days, at least, for the finish of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, but the West's picture is all set for the next round. I thought the teams in the West were a lot closer than the teams in the East, so this comes as a surprise for me. But then again, the playoff adage is coming to be truer and truer - just get in, as they say. That's what Ottawa's doing, for example. I'm going to look ahead to the two semifinal matchups and then take a minute to reflect on each losing team's future.
I went 1-3 in picking the Western Quarterfinals, with my lone correct pick (and it was correct down to number of games) being the Preds in 5 over my hometown Red Wings.
Western Conference Semifinals -
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
I might be looking forward to this series more than any other coming up, regardless of what happens in the East. Both play a stifling defensive game and both have hot goaltenders. Goals will be at a premium in this series, and it's hard not to imagine at least a couple overtime thrillers. I didn't pick either team to advance, expecting playoff inexperience to hamper St. Louis, and Los Angeles to be ousted by a heated-up Vancouver team. We saw how that went. Neither team is brimming with playoff experience, but that seems to be a running theme throughout this year. I still don't buy into St. Louis entirely as a playoff team, but that logic didn't get me far in the first round. Los Angeles, though, really impressed me with their put-down of the Canucks. I think this series can go either way, but Los Angeles won't be facing Roberto Luongo this time, and the Blues are healthier than the Canucks were. It's hard to see the Kings working the same magic on Halak and Elliot.
St. Louis in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Nashville (4-seed)
People are going to bill this as a huge goalie battle, and in truth, it is. But make no mistake - Mike Smith has been the hotter goaltender of the two, if only because Nashville's defense left nothing but scraps to the Red Wings. Rinne rarely had to make the kind of breathtaking stops that Mike Smith did in Game 6 against the Blackhawks. Someone can take that and say it means Smith is to be counted on more, but I see it as meaning that Nashville probably has the superior defense; Rinne will hold his own when he has to. Both teams have reasons to be hungry - Nashville's core could get split up this offseason, and Phoenix might see the departure of captain Shane Doan. As good a story as Phoenix's first playoff series win as a franchise post-Winnipeg is, I don't see it happening again. If Nashville can play Phoenix the way they played Detroit, it'll be another short series.
Nashville in 5.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Vancouver (1-seed)
Tough one, here. Vancouver was supposed to win; was poised to win. Had me convinced. But this postseason might become a blessing in disguise for a Canucks team that will be good again next year - they now know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they can't win with Roberto Luongo. The regular season maestro and playoff choker probably coughed up his last playoff loss in Vancouver, as the team should now realize that there's no way they can let Cory Schneider leave in free agency. In this goaltender-driven league (look around at the surviving playoff teams), someone will trade for Luongo, although Vancouver might have to give him up for pennies on the dollar.
Detroit (5-seed)
Another tough one. Detroit set a record with 23 straight home wins this season, but didn't carry that momentum into the playoffs. Detroit was the best team in February, but that rarely translates. Injuries bogged them down the stretch, and they faced a team built precisely to counter what they do. The Red Wings looked like a dinosaur on the ice, unable to adapt or offer an alternative game plan to the one Nashville was so methodically taking apart. They say the Red Wings are too old, but that discounts the maturing young guys like Helm, Abdelkader, and Miller, as well as rising young players like Nyquist, Mursak, and Brendan Smith. The Wings have some age, but they're well-balanced as always. Brad Stuart is gone, making room to acquire a top blue-liner and promote some from within. Lidstrom will stay or he won't; he looked old this postseason and if he does return, it would be reasonable to trim down his minutes in the regular season. But the Wings have more cap room than they've ever had in the post-lockout era, so there's no reason they can't return to prominence next year.
Chicago (6-seed)
Chicago flip-flopped all season long, going through periods of surges and droughts. At one point in December or January, they had lost 9 or 10 in a row and the talking heads were calling for Coach Q's head. It's hard to say what went wrong against Phoenix. Mike Smith decisively outplayed Corey Crawford, who was inconsistent all season long, and much can be hung there. But the Hawks didn't look themselves, either, perhaps victims of inconsistent penalty calls and suspensions. Andrew Shaw's 3-game suspension for (unintentionally, it seemed to me) running into Mike Smith was excessive and might have put the Hawks on their heels more than people realize. It was clear to me, though, that a great deal of spirit left the team when Marian Hossa got laid out. Hossa's a more integral part of that offense than people realize; a strong, quiet presence as important as Toews or Kane. His absence was palpable to me in Game 6. This is still a good team, but they're still recovering from all of the hemorrhaging they did after winning the Cup in 2010. Their defense lacks depth and Crawford might not be the guy. Similar futures await without some changes.
San Jose (7-seed)
Out of the two teams who got their seedings on the last day of the season, I expected San Jose's playoff experience to advance them over a much more raw Kings team. Yet, the Sharks got soundly ejected by the Blues, whereas the Kings delivered the stunner of the quarterfinals thusfar. I didn't see much of the Sharks series, I have to admit, but I expected more from them. But the Sharks had been playing playoff hockey for weeks and may very well have slowed down against a Blues team ready to pounce on any mistakes made. Obviously some work must be done for this team to be better, but I really don't see them being vastly inferior to Los Angeles, or having the problems Chicago does. They'll be back.
But on the plus side for all four of these teams? None of them are Pittsburgh. Who knew we'd be saying that after the first round of the playoffs? More on that when the Eastern Quarterfinals wrap up.
I went 1-3 in picking the Western Quarterfinals, with my lone correct pick (and it was correct down to number of games) being the Preds in 5 over my hometown Red Wings.
Western Conference Semifinals -
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
I might be looking forward to this series more than any other coming up, regardless of what happens in the East. Both play a stifling defensive game and both have hot goaltenders. Goals will be at a premium in this series, and it's hard not to imagine at least a couple overtime thrillers. I didn't pick either team to advance, expecting playoff inexperience to hamper St. Louis, and Los Angeles to be ousted by a heated-up Vancouver team. We saw how that went. Neither team is brimming with playoff experience, but that seems to be a running theme throughout this year. I still don't buy into St. Louis entirely as a playoff team, but that logic didn't get me far in the first round. Los Angeles, though, really impressed me with their put-down of the Canucks. I think this series can go either way, but Los Angeles won't be facing Roberto Luongo this time, and the Blues are healthier than the Canucks were. It's hard to see the Kings working the same magic on Halak and Elliot.
St. Louis in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Nashville (4-seed)
People are going to bill this as a huge goalie battle, and in truth, it is. But make no mistake - Mike Smith has been the hotter goaltender of the two, if only because Nashville's defense left nothing but scraps to the Red Wings. Rinne rarely had to make the kind of breathtaking stops that Mike Smith did in Game 6 against the Blackhawks. Someone can take that and say it means Smith is to be counted on more, but I see it as meaning that Nashville probably has the superior defense; Rinne will hold his own when he has to. Both teams have reasons to be hungry - Nashville's core could get split up this offseason, and Phoenix might see the departure of captain Shane Doan. As good a story as Phoenix's first playoff series win as a franchise post-Winnipeg is, I don't see it happening again. If Nashville can play Phoenix the way they played Detroit, it'll be another short series.
Nashville in 5.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Vancouver (1-seed)
Tough one, here. Vancouver was supposed to win; was poised to win. Had me convinced. But this postseason might become a blessing in disguise for a Canucks team that will be good again next year - they now know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they can't win with Roberto Luongo. The regular season maestro and playoff choker probably coughed up his last playoff loss in Vancouver, as the team should now realize that there's no way they can let Cory Schneider leave in free agency. In this goaltender-driven league (look around at the surviving playoff teams), someone will trade for Luongo, although Vancouver might have to give him up for pennies on the dollar.
Detroit (5-seed)
Another tough one. Detroit set a record with 23 straight home wins this season, but didn't carry that momentum into the playoffs. Detroit was the best team in February, but that rarely translates. Injuries bogged them down the stretch, and they faced a team built precisely to counter what they do. The Red Wings looked like a dinosaur on the ice, unable to adapt or offer an alternative game plan to the one Nashville was so methodically taking apart. They say the Red Wings are too old, but that discounts the maturing young guys like Helm, Abdelkader, and Miller, as well as rising young players like Nyquist, Mursak, and Brendan Smith. The Wings have some age, but they're well-balanced as always. Brad Stuart is gone, making room to acquire a top blue-liner and promote some from within. Lidstrom will stay or he won't; he looked old this postseason and if he does return, it would be reasonable to trim down his minutes in the regular season. But the Wings have more cap room than they've ever had in the post-lockout era, so there's no reason they can't return to prominence next year.
Chicago (6-seed)
Chicago flip-flopped all season long, going through periods of surges and droughts. At one point in December or January, they had lost 9 or 10 in a row and the talking heads were calling for Coach Q's head. It's hard to say what went wrong against Phoenix. Mike Smith decisively outplayed Corey Crawford, who was inconsistent all season long, and much can be hung there. But the Hawks didn't look themselves, either, perhaps victims of inconsistent penalty calls and suspensions. Andrew Shaw's 3-game suspension for (unintentionally, it seemed to me) running into Mike Smith was excessive and might have put the Hawks on their heels more than people realize. It was clear to me, though, that a great deal of spirit left the team when Marian Hossa got laid out. Hossa's a more integral part of that offense than people realize; a strong, quiet presence as important as Toews or Kane. His absence was palpable to me in Game 6. This is still a good team, but they're still recovering from all of the hemorrhaging they did after winning the Cup in 2010. Their defense lacks depth and Crawford might not be the guy. Similar futures await without some changes.
San Jose (7-seed)
Out of the two teams who got their seedings on the last day of the season, I expected San Jose's playoff experience to advance them over a much more raw Kings team. Yet, the Sharks got soundly ejected by the Blues, whereas the Kings delivered the stunner of the quarterfinals thusfar. I didn't see much of the Sharks series, I have to admit, but I expected more from them. But the Sharks had been playing playoff hockey for weeks and may very well have slowed down against a Blues team ready to pounce on any mistakes made. Obviously some work must be done for this team to be better, but I really don't see them being vastly inferior to Los Angeles, or having the problems Chicago does. They'll be back.
But on the plus side for all four of these teams? None of them are Pittsburgh. Who knew we'd be saying that after the first round of the playoffs? More on that when the Eastern Quarterfinals wrap up.
Friday, April 20, 2012
The Demise of the 2011-12 Red Wings
Of all traditions in sports, the post-series handshake in the NHL has to be one of my favorites. After being vanquished in a tough series, it's always heartening to see smiles and handshakes, shows of respect to one another. Nick Lidstrom sharing extra words with Suter and Weber. Zetterberg and Weber sharing a civil handshake. Jimmy Howard and Pekka Rinne having a handshake and brief man-hug. Lidstrom and Babcock both having extra words to Barry Trotz. Beautiful moment from a tight series; an obvious show that both teams have great respect for one another.
Now, congratulations to Nashville. They've slain their Goliath, putting down the divisional rival Red Wings, the team that was their standard to beat. They put the NHL's primary current dynasty on their butts and made them the first team out this year. Not only that, but they did it convincingly. For those who watched all five games, did you ever suspect at any point that Nashville would lose the series? I predicted a Nashville victory in 5, but I didn't expect Detroit to spend a lot of it looking deflated. Nashville ground them down and wore on them all series long. The pressure from their top guys was relentless. Have you seen such a stifling defense? The praise of this victory is going to Rinne, who had an impressive save percentage from it, but that was courtesy of a defense that rarely let Detroit have a good shooting lane. The Red Wings are a team that doesn't dump the puck on net often as it is, rather content to cycle the puck until the right shot opens up. With Nashville, the right shot never opened up. Many of the pucks that came Rinne's way were easy saves.
Did you see those sweet Datsyuk highlights, though? No? Oh, right, that's because there weren't any. Yet another mark of that Nashville defense - they controlled the Red Wings' top players. Datsyuk was under such pressure from Fisher or Suter so often that he never got to play wizard on them. The Wings looked tired. How many shots did they not get because their reactions seemed a split-second too slow? Meanwhile, Nashville was all over everything. Trotz said it perfectly early in Game 5 - they weren't going to try to beat the Red Wings at their game, they were going to make the Red Wings play theirs. It worked. They didn't try to play a puck possession game or prevent the Red Wings from doing so. They responded to it with a perfect defense, clogging the shooting and passing lanes and leaving the Wings very little reward for their effort.
The biggest thing the Wings were missing in this game was a grinding element. Babcock even acknowledged after Game 1 that they really didn't have the personnel to exact revenge on Shea Weber for his WWE-style tactics on Zetterberg. Bertuzzi apparently disagreed, but in truth, Babcock was right. The Wings are a finesse team. They have been for a long time. But they also used to keep about a line's worth of grinders - guys like McCarty or Maltby or Draper. Guys who could go out and wear out the opposition, or punch them in the mouth when need be. To be fair, Helm is the new (faster!) Draper, a grinder in the mold of those guys, although a much more significant playoff "x-factor" because of his breakaway speed. Eaves, even fills in that role some. Abdelkader can do that, too, as he led the Wings in fighting penalties this year, but he can't do it alone, and he's still a pretty young kid up against some pretty big Nashville guys. The Wings can finesse their way past a lot of teams, but it was clear from the start of this series that the Predators would have none of that, indeed, were built and schemed specifically to not allow that.
So where do the Wings go from here? There's been talk already among the Detroit media of "blowing the team up" or "shaking things up significantly." That's pretty premature, if you ask me. For one, the Wings were lacking two significant playmakers in Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves. While two injuries shouldn't make or break a series, it leaves a mark, and as some NHL pundits have mentioned, the winning team is often the least injured team. Beyond that, the Red Wings are an older, veteran team, and perhaps Father Time is catching up with them some. Perhaps the new parity of the NHL is catching up more now, as well, as other teams are closing the talent gap more, with several years of planning and modeling paying dividends now. Perhaps some of everything.
As far as shaking things up, well, some of that will happen naturally. There's no certainty that Nick Lidstrom will be back; he'll be 42 in a week and while he still plays at a high level, he's starting to slow down, especially at the end of the year. Brad Stuart is almost certain to be gone; he wants to be on the West Coast, nearer his family and home, and if he offers teams from those areas a discount on his market price, well, he'll find a home there. Tomas Holmstrom is 39 and has acknowledged the wear and tear on his body from the game he loves; he's an unrestricted free agent.
Ken Holland knows these things. There's a reason they traded for Kyle Quincey, who will hopefully be better in a full season wearing the Winged Wheel. Assume that Lidstrom and Stuart both leave; without acquiring any new players, the Wings' starting six defensemen would likely be Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Quincey, Jakub Kindl, and Brendan Smith. Not a bad set. Not what we'd be used to, but honestly not bad. Brendan Smith is considered the top prospect in the Wings' farm, and he showed in a brief stint with the Wings this year that he belongs on the roster. Kindl and Quincey both need work, but that comes from playing. I expect the Wings to go out and acquire another defensemen or two to have depth and competition, but given the above, don't expect a big splash. That's not how the Wings do things. People griped at ho-hum nature of the Ian White acquisition in last year, but he's been huge for the Wings this year and fit into their system perfectly. As for Holmstrom, his departure would only clear the way for some of the other young Wings to rise up - both Gustav Nyquist and Jan Mursak impressed me during their time with the team this year and both, I feel, should be on the roster to start next season.
The Red Wings are entering a period of transition, insofar as the Red Wings transition. If it's not this year, I am certain next year will be Lidstrom's last. The "C" will be passed on (to Zetterberg, I'm sure). A new group of veterans will guide a new group of young players. Just as Yzerman, Draper, and Lidstrom brought up a group of upstarts named Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall, so will those guys bring up more. It's how the Wings do things. Maybe then they'll find that ever-important, never-quantifiable "hunger" to bring another Cup to Hockeytown.
Now, congratulations to Nashville. They've slain their Goliath, putting down the divisional rival Red Wings, the team that was their standard to beat. They put the NHL's primary current dynasty on their butts and made them the first team out this year. Not only that, but they did it convincingly. For those who watched all five games, did you ever suspect at any point that Nashville would lose the series? I predicted a Nashville victory in 5, but I didn't expect Detroit to spend a lot of it looking deflated. Nashville ground them down and wore on them all series long. The pressure from their top guys was relentless. Have you seen such a stifling defense? The praise of this victory is going to Rinne, who had an impressive save percentage from it, but that was courtesy of a defense that rarely let Detroit have a good shooting lane. The Red Wings are a team that doesn't dump the puck on net often as it is, rather content to cycle the puck until the right shot opens up. With Nashville, the right shot never opened up. Many of the pucks that came Rinne's way were easy saves.
Did you see those sweet Datsyuk highlights, though? No? Oh, right, that's because there weren't any. Yet another mark of that Nashville defense - they controlled the Red Wings' top players. Datsyuk was under such pressure from Fisher or Suter so often that he never got to play wizard on them. The Wings looked tired. How many shots did they not get because their reactions seemed a split-second too slow? Meanwhile, Nashville was all over everything. Trotz said it perfectly early in Game 5 - they weren't going to try to beat the Red Wings at their game, they were going to make the Red Wings play theirs. It worked. They didn't try to play a puck possession game or prevent the Red Wings from doing so. They responded to it with a perfect defense, clogging the shooting and passing lanes and leaving the Wings very little reward for their effort.
The biggest thing the Wings were missing in this game was a grinding element. Babcock even acknowledged after Game 1 that they really didn't have the personnel to exact revenge on Shea Weber for his WWE-style tactics on Zetterberg. Bertuzzi apparently disagreed, but in truth, Babcock was right. The Wings are a finesse team. They have been for a long time. But they also used to keep about a line's worth of grinders - guys like McCarty or Maltby or Draper. Guys who could go out and wear out the opposition, or punch them in the mouth when need be. To be fair, Helm is the new (faster!) Draper, a grinder in the mold of those guys, although a much more significant playoff "x-factor" because of his breakaway speed. Eaves, even fills in that role some. Abdelkader can do that, too, as he led the Wings in fighting penalties this year, but he can't do it alone, and he's still a pretty young kid up against some pretty big Nashville guys. The Wings can finesse their way past a lot of teams, but it was clear from the start of this series that the Predators would have none of that, indeed, were built and schemed specifically to not allow that.
So where do the Wings go from here? There's been talk already among the Detroit media of "blowing the team up" or "shaking things up significantly." That's pretty premature, if you ask me. For one, the Wings were lacking two significant playmakers in Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves. While two injuries shouldn't make or break a series, it leaves a mark, and as some NHL pundits have mentioned, the winning team is often the least injured team. Beyond that, the Red Wings are an older, veteran team, and perhaps Father Time is catching up with them some. Perhaps the new parity of the NHL is catching up more now, as well, as other teams are closing the talent gap more, with several years of planning and modeling paying dividends now. Perhaps some of everything.
As far as shaking things up, well, some of that will happen naturally. There's no certainty that Nick Lidstrom will be back; he'll be 42 in a week and while he still plays at a high level, he's starting to slow down, especially at the end of the year. Brad Stuart is almost certain to be gone; he wants to be on the West Coast, nearer his family and home, and if he offers teams from those areas a discount on his market price, well, he'll find a home there. Tomas Holmstrom is 39 and has acknowledged the wear and tear on his body from the game he loves; he's an unrestricted free agent.
Ken Holland knows these things. There's a reason they traded for Kyle Quincey, who will hopefully be better in a full season wearing the Winged Wheel. Assume that Lidstrom and Stuart both leave; without acquiring any new players, the Wings' starting six defensemen would likely be Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Quincey, Jakub Kindl, and Brendan Smith. Not a bad set. Not what we'd be used to, but honestly not bad. Brendan Smith is considered the top prospect in the Wings' farm, and he showed in a brief stint with the Wings this year that he belongs on the roster. Kindl and Quincey both need work, but that comes from playing. I expect the Wings to go out and acquire another defensemen or two to have depth and competition, but given the above, don't expect a big splash. That's not how the Wings do things. People griped at ho-hum nature of the Ian White acquisition in last year, but he's been huge for the Wings this year and fit into their system perfectly. As for Holmstrom, his departure would only clear the way for some of the other young Wings to rise up - both Gustav Nyquist and Jan Mursak impressed me during their time with the team this year and both, I feel, should be on the roster to start next season.
The Red Wings are entering a period of transition, insofar as the Red Wings transition. If it's not this year, I am certain next year will be Lidstrom's last. The "C" will be passed on (to Zetterberg, I'm sure). A new group of veterans will guide a new group of young players. Just as Yzerman, Draper, and Lidstrom brought up a group of upstarts named Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall, so will those guys bring up more. It's how the Wings do things. Maybe then they'll find that ever-important, never-quantifiable "hunger" to bring another Cup to Hockeytown.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview
Not long ago, I considered a Red Wings vs. Penguins Stanley Cup rematch to pretty much be locked and set, the way those teams played in February and early March. But since then, so much has changed. The Red Wings struggled to win anywhere after their 23-game-long winning streak at home was snapped by Vancouver, and the Penguins, well, they dropped some easy ones along the way to taking the 4-seed in the East.
So who now? Is there any team really running away with anything? It's hard to say. Vancouver seems to be surging at the right time, taking the 1-seed in the West and the President's Trophy in the eleventh hour from St. Louis and New York. Nashville, likewise, looks like a team that's got the right mentality going into the playoffs and doesn't seem afraid of anyone or anything. In the East, well, assuming they don't kill each other, it's hard not to like the winner of the Penguins/Flyers series. But can anyone count out Washington, who resurrected their playoff hopes in the last couple weeks to top Buffalo and ultimately take the 7-seed?
It's time, folks. The best time of year on the sports calendar - the NHL playoffs.
The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -
NY Rangers (1-seed) vs. Ottawa (8-seed)
Ottawa limped into the playoffs, losing their last 3 games and being helped along by Buffalo's equally inept performance down the stretch. A team that looked like a surer bet earlier now looks shaky at best and are facing a matchup against the best team in the East. While the Rangers haven't been as good as the Penguins at times, they've been the most consistent team in the East and their point total reflects that. Lundquist's out-of-his-mind play has buoyed this team all season long, but they're good enough everywhere else to capitalize on that (which is why they're a 1-seed and not an 8-seed like Los Angeles). There's no reason to think the Rangers start slowing down now.
New York in 5.
Boston (2-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
Tough call. Washington is being sneaky good hear at the end, knowing that years of playoff berths and no success are starting to cause disharmony. Boston's been a poster-child for disharmony at times this season, thanks to Tim Thomas, but otherwise have played well. Their 2-seed berth isn't as indicative of their performance this season, though, as their 5th-highest point total in the East. However, while that might sway my opinion of them against better teams, I think the defending Cup champions' playoff savvy and consistency will give them the edge over a streaky Washington team.
Boston in 5.
Florida (3-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
Florida didn't exactly go screaming down the stretch, nearly coughing up the division lead to to Washington in the last week. New Jersey, meanwhile, suddenly came on, even threatening Pittsburgh and Philly's epic matchup by infringing on the 4- or 5-seed. But the Devils finished a point behind Philly and end up with an easier matchup against the lagging Panthers, who finished eight points behind New Jersey, but who won their division. Like St. Louis, Florida's success was inspirational, but surprising. Like St. Louis, they don't have the playoff experience to conquer a team better-suited for postseason play.
New Jersey in 4.
Pittsburgh (4-seed) vs. Philadelphia (5-seed)
The best series of the round and, for good reason, the most hyped. That brawl just set it up and now here we go. These are good teams that hate each other and that is the best kind of rivalry the NHL can have. Better yet, Philadelphia has owned Pittsburgh all year in the Penguins' own building. Have the Pens been coasting? Against almost anyone else, I'd take the Pens, but the only time they beat Philly in Pittsburgh was a meaningless game at the end of the season. When you can't get it done at home, I don't expect you to get it done.
Philadelphia in 7.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals -
Vancouver (1-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
Los Angeles snuck into the playoffs despite a great season out of Jonathon Quick. Beyond that, though, you have to wonder how good this team is. When outstanding goaltending only gets you the 8-seed, you have concerns, and those concerns are likely to get exploited by a 1-seed team... especially when that 1-seed is peaking. Vancouver seems the most primed for the playoffs of all the Western teams to me. I'll even go as far as to say it might their year (at least to represent the West in the Finals). They're just deeper than Los Angeles. Barring a (semi-typical) postseason meltdown by Luongo, I expect Vancouver to roll.
Vancouver in 5.
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. San Jose (7-seed)
St. Louis is the biggest question mark of the playoffs to me. Can their stalwart defense and unreal netminding continue as the intensity ratchets up in postseason play? San Jose's been on the verge of not being in the playoffs for some time and are going to be ready to go, having had to beat Los Angeles on the last day of the season to finish in the 7-seed. The Sharks are better than they look, even when they're not breaking up plays from the bench. I think their postseason mettle shows over the relatively inexperienced Blues. St. Louis struck me all season as that occasional "early exit after winning the President's Trophy" team that comes around every few years.
San Jose in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Chicago (6-seed)
I was certain Detroit would lose to Chicago and take the 6-seed, setting up a third-straight first-round series with Phoenix. Instead, Phoenix draws Chicago, who beat the Wings in shootout to end their season. Chicago's had a remarkably up-and-down season but appear to be peaking at the right time. With Toews out, their ceiling is limited, but they should be able to dispatch the Pacific division champs, who finished with a lower point total than they did.
Chicago in 6.
Nashville (4-seed) vs. Detroit (5-seed)
I want to believe. I want to think that the veteran savvy of the Red Wings and the return of some injured starters will propel them through this series and beyond. But... I can't. Nashville is playing like a team with a chip on its shoulder, like a team that has the confidence to prove it belongs in the upper echelon of teams. This is a team that knows they have to get through Detroit to get anywhere and they've built to do just that. This year, they accomplish the feat.
Nashville in 5.
So who now? Is there any team really running away with anything? It's hard to say. Vancouver seems to be surging at the right time, taking the 1-seed in the West and the President's Trophy in the eleventh hour from St. Louis and New York. Nashville, likewise, looks like a team that's got the right mentality going into the playoffs and doesn't seem afraid of anyone or anything. In the East, well, assuming they don't kill each other, it's hard not to like the winner of the Penguins/Flyers series. But can anyone count out Washington, who resurrected their playoff hopes in the last couple weeks to top Buffalo and ultimately take the 7-seed?
It's time, folks. The best time of year on the sports calendar - the NHL playoffs.
The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -
NY Rangers (1-seed) vs. Ottawa (8-seed)
Ottawa limped into the playoffs, losing their last 3 games and being helped along by Buffalo's equally inept performance down the stretch. A team that looked like a surer bet earlier now looks shaky at best and are facing a matchup against the best team in the East. While the Rangers haven't been as good as the Penguins at times, they've been the most consistent team in the East and their point total reflects that. Lundquist's out-of-his-mind play has buoyed this team all season long, but they're good enough everywhere else to capitalize on that (which is why they're a 1-seed and not an 8-seed like Los Angeles). There's no reason to think the Rangers start slowing down now.
New York in 5.
Boston (2-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
Tough call. Washington is being sneaky good hear at the end, knowing that years of playoff berths and no success are starting to cause disharmony. Boston's been a poster-child for disharmony at times this season, thanks to Tim Thomas, but otherwise have played well. Their 2-seed berth isn't as indicative of their performance this season, though, as their 5th-highest point total in the East. However, while that might sway my opinion of them against better teams, I think the defending Cup champions' playoff savvy and consistency will give them the edge over a streaky Washington team.
Boston in 5.
Florida (3-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
Florida didn't exactly go screaming down the stretch, nearly coughing up the division lead to to Washington in the last week. New Jersey, meanwhile, suddenly came on, even threatening Pittsburgh and Philly's epic matchup by infringing on the 4- or 5-seed. But the Devils finished a point behind Philly and end up with an easier matchup against the lagging Panthers, who finished eight points behind New Jersey, but who won their division. Like St. Louis, Florida's success was inspirational, but surprising. Like St. Louis, they don't have the playoff experience to conquer a team better-suited for postseason play.
New Jersey in 4.
Pittsburgh (4-seed) vs. Philadelphia (5-seed)
The best series of the round and, for good reason, the most hyped. That brawl just set it up and now here we go. These are good teams that hate each other and that is the best kind of rivalry the NHL can have. Better yet, Philadelphia has owned Pittsburgh all year in the Penguins' own building. Have the Pens been coasting? Against almost anyone else, I'd take the Pens, but the only time they beat Philly in Pittsburgh was a meaningless game at the end of the season. When you can't get it done at home, I don't expect you to get it done.
Philadelphia in 7.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals -
Vancouver (1-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
Los Angeles snuck into the playoffs despite a great season out of Jonathon Quick. Beyond that, though, you have to wonder how good this team is. When outstanding goaltending only gets you the 8-seed, you have concerns, and those concerns are likely to get exploited by a 1-seed team... especially when that 1-seed is peaking. Vancouver seems the most primed for the playoffs of all the Western teams to me. I'll even go as far as to say it might their year (at least to represent the West in the Finals). They're just deeper than Los Angeles. Barring a (semi-typical) postseason meltdown by Luongo, I expect Vancouver to roll.
Vancouver in 5.
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. San Jose (7-seed)
St. Louis is the biggest question mark of the playoffs to me. Can their stalwart defense and unreal netminding continue as the intensity ratchets up in postseason play? San Jose's been on the verge of not being in the playoffs for some time and are going to be ready to go, having had to beat Los Angeles on the last day of the season to finish in the 7-seed. The Sharks are better than they look, even when they're not breaking up plays from the bench. I think their postseason mettle shows over the relatively inexperienced Blues. St. Louis struck me all season as that occasional "early exit after winning the President's Trophy" team that comes around every few years.
San Jose in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Chicago (6-seed)
I was certain Detroit would lose to Chicago and take the 6-seed, setting up a third-straight first-round series with Phoenix. Instead, Phoenix draws Chicago, who beat the Wings in shootout to end their season. Chicago's had a remarkably up-and-down season but appear to be peaking at the right time. With Toews out, their ceiling is limited, but they should be able to dispatch the Pacific division champs, who finished with a lower point total than they did.
Chicago in 6.
Nashville (4-seed) vs. Detroit (5-seed)
I want to believe. I want to think that the veteran savvy of the Red Wings and the return of some injured starters will propel them through this series and beyond. But... I can't. Nashville is playing like a team with a chip on its shoulder, like a team that has the confidence to prove it belongs in the upper echelon of teams. This is a team that knows they have to get through Detroit to get anywhere and they've built to do just that. This year, they accomplish the feat.
Nashville in 5.
Monday, April 9, 2012
Opening Weekend - Wow!
I hadn't quite seen an opening set of games like that before. If this is a season of destiny for the Tigers, well, it certainly got a storybook beginning.
I caught parts of the Thursday game - the first two or three innings and the ninth. I had to leave just as Verlander started to get that Look. You know, the one where he's found his groove. I got back in time to see that Valverde blew the save and the Tigers come back up to bat.
I watched all of both weekend games.
Here's what I learned:
1) Verlander looks dominant.
This guy doesn't seem to have skipped a beat. He'll have bad days, but he looks like he's ready to win another AL Cy Young.
2) Valverde's blown save is a blessing in disguise.
Mark my words on this - having the pressure of no blown saves in 52 attempts, in more than a calendar year, was not something we wanted on Papa Grande. By blowing the first save of the year, everyone can laugh it off, Valverde can relax, and he'll be fine the rest of the way.
3) Cabrera and Fielder really are two of the best hitters in the game.
Cabrera looks ready to go. One of the Fox Sports Detroit announcers said this might be the year he wins an MVP. If he plays with this intensity all year, I agree. Fielder, likewise, looks dialed in and ready go. What's amazing is how relaxed both look. And it's not just the HRs - both of them just know how to get it done, like Fielder's single in the 11th yesterday.
4) The clubhouse chemistry seems top-notch.
Everyone seems really relaxed. Given, they're winning. But still, no one seems like they feel like they need to hold the team on their shoulders. Everyone seems to be comfortable relying on each other. And they all look like they're having fun. A happy clubhouse with a team that stacked? Scary.
5) Is there a weak spot in the lineup?
Nope. There just isn't. If Austin Jackson halves his strikeout numbers and keeps hitting (not at a .560 clip, but at, say, a .300 clip) it'll make this team even more dangerous. And who are you pitching around past that? Boesch? Young? Avila? Peralta? Raburn? The only weak spot is the 9-hole and it's still better than many.
6) Don't overreact to the Fister injury.
It's early in the season and the guy pulled a rib muscle. Later in the year, this might not even be a DL trip. But right now? No reason not to play it safe.
7) Don't overreact to Scherzer's first outing.
Guy had a bad game, probably got overconfident from the big lead. It's one game and he was relatively solid last season. Like Porcello, though, he's going to have bad days.
8) The bullpen is much improved.
Sure, they gave up some runs. But this bullpen is vastly improved over the 2011 incarnation... and that's without Al Alburquerque. This is not the glaring weak point it was last year.
9) Boston isn't as good as people think.
This is a very mediocre Boston team. Trouncing them doesn't mean the same thing it would have meant two or three years ago.
10) Tampa Bay will provide a better test to gauge this team by.
One of the best pitching teams against one of the best hitting teams. Tampa is a better team than Boston this year (by a lot). Let's see how the Tigers hit against that squad.
There's still a lot of season left, but it's hard not to be encouraged by the most exciting Opening Weekend ever, right? And after two walk-off wins and one dominant shutout, why not? Let's enjoy it and see how the Tampa set goes.
I caught parts of the Thursday game - the first two or three innings and the ninth. I had to leave just as Verlander started to get that Look. You know, the one where he's found his groove. I got back in time to see that Valverde blew the save and the Tigers come back up to bat.
I watched all of both weekend games.
Here's what I learned:
1) Verlander looks dominant.
This guy doesn't seem to have skipped a beat. He'll have bad days, but he looks like he's ready to win another AL Cy Young.
2) Valverde's blown save is a blessing in disguise.
Mark my words on this - having the pressure of no blown saves in 52 attempts, in more than a calendar year, was not something we wanted on Papa Grande. By blowing the first save of the year, everyone can laugh it off, Valverde can relax, and he'll be fine the rest of the way.
3) Cabrera and Fielder really are two of the best hitters in the game.
Cabrera looks ready to go. One of the Fox Sports Detroit announcers said this might be the year he wins an MVP. If he plays with this intensity all year, I agree. Fielder, likewise, looks dialed in and ready go. What's amazing is how relaxed both look. And it's not just the HRs - both of them just know how to get it done, like Fielder's single in the 11th yesterday.
4) The clubhouse chemistry seems top-notch.
Everyone seems really relaxed. Given, they're winning. But still, no one seems like they feel like they need to hold the team on their shoulders. Everyone seems to be comfortable relying on each other. And they all look like they're having fun. A happy clubhouse with a team that stacked? Scary.
5) Is there a weak spot in the lineup?
Nope. There just isn't. If Austin Jackson halves his strikeout numbers and keeps hitting (not at a .560 clip, but at, say, a .300 clip) it'll make this team even more dangerous. And who are you pitching around past that? Boesch? Young? Avila? Peralta? Raburn? The only weak spot is the 9-hole and it's still better than many.
6) Don't overreact to the Fister injury.
It's early in the season and the guy pulled a rib muscle. Later in the year, this might not even be a DL trip. But right now? No reason not to play it safe.
7) Don't overreact to Scherzer's first outing.
Guy had a bad game, probably got overconfident from the big lead. It's one game and he was relatively solid last season. Like Porcello, though, he's going to have bad days.
8) The bullpen is much improved.
Sure, they gave up some runs. But this bullpen is vastly improved over the 2011 incarnation... and that's without Al Alburquerque. This is not the glaring weak point it was last year.
9) Boston isn't as good as people think.
This is a very mediocre Boston team. Trouncing them doesn't mean the same thing it would have meant two or three years ago.
10) Tampa Bay will provide a better test to gauge this team by.
One of the best pitching teams against one of the best hitting teams. Tampa is a better team than Boston this year (by a lot). Let's see how the Tigers hit against that squad.
There's still a lot of season left, but it's hard not to be encouraged by the most exciting Opening Weekend ever, right? And after two walk-off wins and one dominant shutout, why not? Let's enjoy it and see how the Tampa set goes.
Saturday, April 7, 2012
The MLB Preview
Whoops. We're a couple days in already! Lax on my part, but nonetheless, I'll list my opinions and predictions here, since a couple days of play really doesn't color anything that strongly or change/invalidate them.
The AL -
Division winners? Detroit, Tampa, Texas.
Wild Cards? New York and Toronto.
The NL -
Division Winners? Philadelphia, St. Louis, Arizona.
Wild Cards? Washington and San Francisco.
Fielder will have a better season than Pujols -
I'm hearing a lot of Albert Pujols and Angels hype. It seems to me that most people are forgetting that guys take time to adjust to a new league, especially for sluggers in the AL. I expect both Pujols and Prince Fielder to take some time to get hot. Remember that Cabrera had one of his worst seasons in 2008 when he first joined the Tigers. However, I also expect Fielder to do better.
My reasoning is simple. First of all, Pujols has a lot of hype to deal with. He's the face of the Angels right now. Besides that, Pujols is leaving his home of ten years to come to a new place. It's gonna take time. As for Fielder, he didn't leave home - he came back home. Remember that he grew up a Tiger. Unlike Pujols, the Tigers aren't asking as much of Fielder - he's not the face of the Tigers. They just want him to come in and do his job. Far less pressure on Fielder. He's gonna have the better season.
Braun won't be NL MVP again -
I think Braun has plenty of tools, but he has two major issues to deal with. First, he's it. Fielder's gone, so a greater burden falls on his shoulders. Second, he has a revoked PED suspension looming over him. The guy has too much on his mind. He won't repeat.
Verlander might in the AL, though -
This is highly unlikely, in truth, but when you listen to Verlander talk, he sounds like he had an "okay" season last year. The guy continues to challenge himself and his Opening Day performance only proves that his drive to excel and succeed is quite admirable. It's like winning those awards last season have only motivated him to do even better. Scary.
The AL is the better division -
Mark my words, the best non-playoff team in the AL will have a record good enough to win the weakest NL division.
Kansas City will be better than anyone expects -
They won't win the AL Central, or really challenge for it, but they'll finish second.
Boston will be worse -
.500 at best. I just don't buy this team. It won't even be because of Bobby Valentine. Just too much attrition in one offseason for them to be very effective in a loaded division. This team isn't rebuilding, per se, but they are very much in transition.
Miguel Cabrera makes less than 15 errors at 3B -
This story just got way too much attention over the winter. He'll be adequate there; he's not a Gold Glove, obviously. But he's on a good team and he'll have good support. It'll work out. Miami, however, might be another situation altogether - anyone see that Opening Night game?
The Tigers win the World Series -
I'm really not sure who'll emerge from the NL. Really tough to say. If I had to pick, I'd say Arizona. But the Tigers will win it. They have the look and swagger of a team that looks ready to play a full season, win a lot of games, hit a lot of balls, and have a lot of fun doing it. For all the hype, they seem as relaxed as any team I've seen. I resisted the hype as best I could over the offseason, especially as a Tigers fan, but hype aside, it's the best Tigers team I've ever seen. They were closer than people think last year and this year they're simply more dangerous and they clearly realize that their job this year is to win it all. The infield won't be as bad as people think, the batting lineup will be the nastiest in the majors, and the pitching will be everything it needs to be, if not more.
Here's to the 2012 season. It's good to have baseball back.
The AL -
Division winners? Detroit, Tampa, Texas.
Wild Cards? New York and Toronto.
The NL -
Division Winners? Philadelphia, St. Louis, Arizona.
Wild Cards? Washington and San Francisco.
Fielder will have a better season than Pujols -
I'm hearing a lot of Albert Pujols and Angels hype. It seems to me that most people are forgetting that guys take time to adjust to a new league, especially for sluggers in the AL. I expect both Pujols and Prince Fielder to take some time to get hot. Remember that Cabrera had one of his worst seasons in 2008 when he first joined the Tigers. However, I also expect Fielder to do better.
My reasoning is simple. First of all, Pujols has a lot of hype to deal with. He's the face of the Angels right now. Besides that, Pujols is leaving his home of ten years to come to a new place. It's gonna take time. As for Fielder, he didn't leave home - he came back home. Remember that he grew up a Tiger. Unlike Pujols, the Tigers aren't asking as much of Fielder - he's not the face of the Tigers. They just want him to come in and do his job. Far less pressure on Fielder. He's gonna have the better season.
Braun won't be NL MVP again -
I think Braun has plenty of tools, but he has two major issues to deal with. First, he's it. Fielder's gone, so a greater burden falls on his shoulders. Second, he has a revoked PED suspension looming over him. The guy has too much on his mind. He won't repeat.
Verlander might in the AL, though -
This is highly unlikely, in truth, but when you listen to Verlander talk, he sounds like he had an "okay" season last year. The guy continues to challenge himself and his Opening Day performance only proves that his drive to excel and succeed is quite admirable. It's like winning those awards last season have only motivated him to do even better. Scary.
The AL is the better division -
Mark my words, the best non-playoff team in the AL will have a record good enough to win the weakest NL division.
Kansas City will be better than anyone expects -
They won't win the AL Central, or really challenge for it, but they'll finish second.
Boston will be worse -
.500 at best. I just don't buy this team. It won't even be because of Bobby Valentine. Just too much attrition in one offseason for them to be very effective in a loaded division. This team isn't rebuilding, per se, but they are very much in transition.
Miguel Cabrera makes less than 15 errors at 3B -
This story just got way too much attention over the winter. He'll be adequate there; he's not a Gold Glove, obviously. But he's on a good team and he'll have good support. It'll work out. Miami, however, might be another situation altogether - anyone see that Opening Night game?
The Tigers win the World Series -
I'm really not sure who'll emerge from the NL. Really tough to say. If I had to pick, I'd say Arizona. But the Tigers will win it. They have the look and swagger of a team that looks ready to play a full season, win a lot of games, hit a lot of balls, and have a lot of fun doing it. For all the hype, they seem as relaxed as any team I've seen. I resisted the hype as best I could over the offseason, especially as a Tigers fan, but hype aside, it's the best Tigers team I've ever seen. They were closer than people think last year and this year they're simply more dangerous and they clearly realize that their job this year is to win it all. The infield won't be as bad as people think, the batting lineup will be the nastiest in the majors, and the pitching will be everything it needs to be, if not more.
Here's to the 2012 season. It's good to have baseball back.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The Saints, Bounties, and Violence in Football
I wrote a brief piece about this when it first broke out a month ago to the day. I return to touch on it again, hopefully in my last football piece for awhile, with such an exciting NHL postseason and MLB season on tap (more on those this weekend).
Today, some damning audio of Gregg Williams surfaced. Everyone's all in a tizzy! He yelled at his guys, told them to target injuries and take guys out. Everyone's really excited! He said things like "knock the fuck out of him" and "kill Frank Gore's head" and "[Crabtree] becomes human when we fucking take out his outside ACL" and so on and so forth. This story is dominating the newsvine right now, but I really have to wonder - why? Is anyone really surprised by this? Is anyone shocked or appalled by this, which is coming from a guy who has admitted to running a pay-for-injury bounty program in his defense? For that matter, is anyone surprised by this in any NFL locker room?
Look, I played a bit of sports in my day. Not a lot. I shot hoops and played baseball with friends growing up. I fenced in college. I've played beer-league softball. At any level of sport, with any group of guys, you're gonna get people saying things that sound really messed up out of context. At any level of sport, though, you are trying to win and you will take advantage of anything you can do so. If this means you're a CB and your WR has a concussion history, maybe you're extra aggressive with him at the line, try to make him a half-step slower, whatever. Maybe a guy has had knee surgery, so you hit him low when you do. Maybe you want a star NHL forward to think twice when he enters the offensive zone, so you land some good hits on him early. All of the resultant hits from these things could be completely clean and legal and all of them could lack any intent whatsoever to injure. But if you take them out of context, they might sound like it. Is there anyone who can imagine a pro locker room in football in which someone yelling "WE NEED TO FUCKING KILL THAT GUY" is out of place or uncommon? I didn't think so.
I'm not advocating for Williams. I'm not pardoning him. I stated a month ago that he should be banned from the NFL for life. The NFL is a dangerous, violent game. That will never change; that's the nature of it. If you want something a little more gentile, a little less violent, then watch baseball. If you want large men crashing violently into other large men, you watch football. If you want to watch more average-sized men crash violently into other average-sized men while moving very very fast on ice skates, you watch hockey. I enjoy all of these sports, personally, for various reasons besides the obvious violence. But I won't shy away from the reality - some of these sports are inherently violent and I admit to enjoying that regulated violence.
I do not endorse or enjoy, however, the active pursuit of intentional injury. Does it happen sometimes? Probably. If anyone out there thinks the Saints are the only team with a bounty program, they're deluding themselves. These are violent games played by people indoctrinated into that violence. It's not abnormal to them. It's completely ordinary and expected. Understand that there are different social mores at work. That yelling "WE NEED TO PUT THAT FUCKER DOWN" means something akin to "Knock him down a few times to make him think twice." Out of context, yeah, sounds worse. But without context, I refuse to judge completely. But having Gregg Williams, in light of the bounty scandal, calling out injuries to target (basically), isn't exactly good for him. But is it really that surprising? Really?
Football provides, perhaps, the perfect storm for this sort of thing. It's so highly regulated that it makes me think of how one child can instigate another and it's always the retaliatory child that gets caught. There aren't many methods of self-policing in football. Baseball and basketball aren't that violent in and of themselves. Hockey is, in my opinion, far more violent than football and dealing with similar concussion problems - however, in hockey, if you do something dirty, there's a whole team with a whole game's worth of opportunities to make you pay for it. People think fighting should be banned from hockey; I think fighting help keeps players in check and keep the game clean. You know if you exist too far outside the rules, you're gonna become a target of the dirty play you enact. It's fair to consider that the same controls don't exist in football; they're in the commissioner's office, not on the field.
Williams should be banned. What he instigated was egregious and anyone else caught doing the same should face the same penalty. If Roger Goodell truly wants to make the NFL a safer game, he has to crack down on this with the utmost sincerity and passion - which means he needs to start investigating better helmets for players, he needs to crack down hardest on coaches like Williams and Payton, and he needs to tell the league's television outlets to stop glamorizing hard hits. This isn't an overnight fix; it's a whole culture change. Football, like hockey, will always be a fast and violent sport. And whatever powers-that-be in those sports need to acknowledge that and accept that injuries will happen. People will get hurt playing these games.
A line has to be drawn. Intentional, egregious violence should be punished. Incidental violence that comes as part of the game should be accepted for what it is. But until I see these leagues pushing for better equipment and celebrating the violence less, I won't be able to believe their sincerity on the matter. At the end of the day, the violence of the sport is what brings revenue. Until Roger Goodell pulls programming celebrating bone-rattling hits, til he stops talking about 18-game seasons, til he starts pushing research or mandates for better (more expensive) helmets and equipment, he'll always seem two-faced on this topic to me: he wants a safer game, yes, but only if it doesn't threaten the revenue pie. And at the end of the day, sadly, that's all it's about.
Today, some damning audio of Gregg Williams surfaced. Everyone's all in a tizzy! He yelled at his guys, told them to target injuries and take guys out. Everyone's really excited! He said things like "knock the fuck out of him" and "kill Frank Gore's head" and "[Crabtree] becomes human when we fucking take out his outside ACL" and so on and so forth. This story is dominating the newsvine right now, but I really have to wonder - why? Is anyone really surprised by this? Is anyone shocked or appalled by this, which is coming from a guy who has admitted to running a pay-for-injury bounty program in his defense? For that matter, is anyone surprised by this in any NFL locker room?
Look, I played a bit of sports in my day. Not a lot. I shot hoops and played baseball with friends growing up. I fenced in college. I've played beer-league softball. At any level of sport, with any group of guys, you're gonna get people saying things that sound really messed up out of context. At any level of sport, though, you are trying to win and you will take advantage of anything you can do so. If this means you're a CB and your WR has a concussion history, maybe you're extra aggressive with him at the line, try to make him a half-step slower, whatever. Maybe a guy has had knee surgery, so you hit him low when you do. Maybe you want a star NHL forward to think twice when he enters the offensive zone, so you land some good hits on him early. All of the resultant hits from these things could be completely clean and legal and all of them could lack any intent whatsoever to injure. But if you take them out of context, they might sound like it. Is there anyone who can imagine a pro locker room in football in which someone yelling "WE NEED TO FUCKING KILL THAT GUY" is out of place or uncommon? I didn't think so.
I'm not advocating for Williams. I'm not pardoning him. I stated a month ago that he should be banned from the NFL for life. The NFL is a dangerous, violent game. That will never change; that's the nature of it. If you want something a little more gentile, a little less violent, then watch baseball. If you want large men crashing violently into other large men, you watch football. If you want to watch more average-sized men crash violently into other average-sized men while moving very very fast on ice skates, you watch hockey. I enjoy all of these sports, personally, for various reasons besides the obvious violence. But I won't shy away from the reality - some of these sports are inherently violent and I admit to enjoying that regulated violence.
I do not endorse or enjoy, however, the active pursuit of intentional injury. Does it happen sometimes? Probably. If anyone out there thinks the Saints are the only team with a bounty program, they're deluding themselves. These are violent games played by people indoctrinated into that violence. It's not abnormal to them. It's completely ordinary and expected. Understand that there are different social mores at work. That yelling "WE NEED TO PUT THAT FUCKER DOWN" means something akin to "Knock him down a few times to make him think twice." Out of context, yeah, sounds worse. But without context, I refuse to judge completely. But having Gregg Williams, in light of the bounty scandal, calling out injuries to target (basically), isn't exactly good for him. But is it really that surprising? Really?
Football provides, perhaps, the perfect storm for this sort of thing. It's so highly regulated that it makes me think of how one child can instigate another and it's always the retaliatory child that gets caught. There aren't many methods of self-policing in football. Baseball and basketball aren't that violent in and of themselves. Hockey is, in my opinion, far more violent than football and dealing with similar concussion problems - however, in hockey, if you do something dirty, there's a whole team with a whole game's worth of opportunities to make you pay for it. People think fighting should be banned from hockey; I think fighting help keeps players in check and keep the game clean. You know if you exist too far outside the rules, you're gonna become a target of the dirty play you enact. It's fair to consider that the same controls don't exist in football; they're in the commissioner's office, not on the field.
Williams should be banned. What he instigated was egregious and anyone else caught doing the same should face the same penalty. If Roger Goodell truly wants to make the NFL a safer game, he has to crack down on this with the utmost sincerity and passion - which means he needs to start investigating better helmets for players, he needs to crack down hardest on coaches like Williams and Payton, and he needs to tell the league's television outlets to stop glamorizing hard hits. This isn't an overnight fix; it's a whole culture change. Football, like hockey, will always be a fast and violent sport. And whatever powers-that-be in those sports need to acknowledge that and accept that injuries will happen. People will get hurt playing these games.
A line has to be drawn. Intentional, egregious violence should be punished. Incidental violence that comes as part of the game should be accepted for what it is. But until I see these leagues pushing for better equipment and celebrating the violence less, I won't be able to believe their sincerity on the matter. At the end of the day, the violence of the sport is what brings revenue. Until Roger Goodell pulls programming celebrating bone-rattling hits, til he stops talking about 18-game seasons, til he starts pushing research or mandates for better (more expensive) helmets and equipment, he'll always seem two-faced on this topic to me: he wants a safer game, yes, but only if it doesn't threaten the revenue pie. And at the end of the day, sadly, that's all it's about.
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