7-9 again. Sheesh. Too much focus on baseball and hockey this past year, it would seem, has made me forget just how much can change in one football season. This is a much more fluid sport we're talking about here, where one year can result in huge changes.
Here we go for week 4. Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (0-3) @ Baltimore (2-1)
Sunday Early -
Carolina (1-2) @ Atlanta (3-0)
New England (1-2) @ Buffalo (2-1)
Minnesota (2-1) @ Detroit (1-2)
San Diego (2-1) @ Kansas City (1-2)
Seattle (2-1) @ St. Louis (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ NY Jets (2-1)
Tennessee (1-2) @ Houston (3-0)
Sunday Late -
Oakland (1-2) @ Denver (1-2)
Miami (1-2) @ Arizona (4-0)
Cincinnati (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
New Orleans (0-3) @ Green Bay (1-2)
Washington (1-2) @ Tampa Bay (1-2)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia (2-1)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-1) @ Dallas (2-1)
Baltimore and Cleveland is a pretty self-explanatory one, don't you think? Baltimore might just be the best team in the AFC, although Houston might have something to say about that.
Speaking of best teams in a conference, Atlanta looks primed this year, while Carolina looks like an entire team experiencing a sophomore slump. New England will likely destroy Buffalo after feeling robbed against Baltimore; but boy, wouldn't this game make an epic upset? Something about the Patriots seems off, but I expect them to do their thing here. As a Lions fan, I'm terrified of the Vikings game coming up - it's basically a must-win for the Lions, with their bye week afterwards. The Vikings, however, look like the most complete and fundamentally sound team in the NFC North. If this were in Minnesota, I'd take the Vikes, but I feel like a home game that's a must-win... gotta be the Lions, right? I still don't like San Diego, but I do like Kansas City. No reasoning here, really, but if Jamaal Charles has gotten going... well, yeah. I like Seattle a lot, also, against a somewhat sound, but still mediocre Rams squad. Likewise, San Francisco should reassert themselves after a shocking loss last week when they play the haphazard Jets this week. Houston should keep pace as one of the top-2 teams in the AFC, also, when they roll the Titans up.
I'm still not sure how Oakland beat Pittsburgh, but I'll take Denver here. It's at home, and Denver needs a win. If it were in Oakland, hm. But in Denver... well, at least for this week, I'll take Peyton in Denver over McFadden; but Oakland reads a lot like Kansas City - if McFadden is rolling, they can win. I love Arizona's defense and expect them to trounce Miami based on that alone. Cincinnati is a better team than Jacksonville; this game has potential for upset if MJD gets going, but I'll take the more complete team. New Orleans and Green Bay are playing in the Crushed Expectations Bowl this weekend, and both teams desperately need the win. I'll take the home team. Whoever loses can basically write off this season. I like Tampa against Washington also; RG3 is solid, but needs time yet, and that Tampa defense just looks might respectable.
Philly looks like a disaster to me. How do they have two wins? Giants on Sunday Night.
Same for Chicago, really. They snuck by the Rams last week, but I just don't buy that team at all. I think Dallas does a number on them.
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 3
Ouch. 7-9 last week. Which only proves what we already knew - what we see in Week 1 isn't always the truth.
Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)
Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)
Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)
Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)
In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report. Who do they plan to suit up? Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here. I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.
Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game. If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.
I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here. Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.
I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument). But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week. I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close. But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.
Tennessee just doesn't look good. Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town. This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.
Jacksonville? They don't look good this year. Indianapolis? They look sneaky good. Andrew Luck's the real deal. Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.
I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either. The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen. We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.
San Francisco is the best team in the NFL. End of story. The Vikings? They're sneaky good. Seriously. But it won't look like it this week.
New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team. They have to win it. Right? Right? Have to. More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win. If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.
I don't believe in Cincinnati. I do believe in RG3. Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.
I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check. Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.
San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams. Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL. Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.
Houston? Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl). Denver? One of the most overrated teams in the league. Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.
We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland. Pittsburgh rolls here.
Baltimore's better. End of story. I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably. Baltimore is young and on the rise. Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.
Green Bay. Seattle. In Seattle. Really tough call. Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense. Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson. Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either. I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more. But right now, this early? I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm. However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.
Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)
Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)
Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)
Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)
In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report. Who do they plan to suit up? Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here. I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.
Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game. If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.
I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here. Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.
I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument). But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week. I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close. But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.
Tennessee just doesn't look good. Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town. This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.
Jacksonville? They don't look good this year. Indianapolis? They look sneaky good. Andrew Luck's the real deal. Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.
I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either. The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen. We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.
San Francisco is the best team in the NFL. End of story. The Vikings? They're sneaky good. Seriously. But it won't look like it this week.
New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team. They have to win it. Right? Right? Have to. More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win. If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.
I don't believe in Cincinnati. I do believe in RG3. Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.
I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check. Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.
San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams. Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL. Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.
Houston? Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl). Denver? One of the most overrated teams in the league. Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.
We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland. Pittsburgh rolls here.
Baltimore's better. End of story. I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably. Baltimore is young and on the rise. Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.
Green Bay. Seattle. In Seattle. Really tough call. Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense. Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson. Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either. I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more. But right now, this early? I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm. However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 2
Week 1 saw me go 10-6; not bad to start the season.
Are Atlanta and San Francisco really the best teams in the league? What about the swoons of the Saints and Packers? See below...
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Chicago (1-0) @ Green Bay (0-1)
Early Sunday -
Kansas City (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Cincinnati (0-1)
Minnesota (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Oakland (0-1) @ Miami (0-1)
Arizona (1-0) @ New England (1-0)
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ NY Giants (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1) @ Carolina (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
Late Sunday -
Washington (1-0) @ St. Louis (0-1)
Dallas (1-0) @ Seattle (0-1)
NY Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1) @ San Diego (1-0)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (1-0) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Monday Night -
Denver (1-0) @ Atlanta (1-0)
I actually like Chicago over Green Bay... I think the Packers are due for a swoon, from a great team to a good one; however, I think they realize that they have to win this Thursday. Opening the season 0-2, both losses at home? The Pack must be feeling some urgency. If they win this, they can settle down; if not, they're stacking the deck against themselves.
I think Kansas City might turn out to be sneaky good, certainly over a bad Bills team. We won't get into the offensive train-wrecks that Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia appear to be. I sort of like the odds of Indianapolis over Minnesota, but I'll give the nod to the team with the second-year QB and all-star RB. I think Tampa might be better than we all expect, and wouldn't be surprised if they shock the Giants; but like the Packers, the Giants must feel some urgency to not open up the season 0-2. The Saints will probably take out their opening loss frustrations on a lackluster-looking Panthers team, while Houston should roll a Jaguars team that barely kept up with a less-than-stellar Vikings team last week.
I'm tempted to take St. Louis over Washington, also. The RG3-led Redskins impressed, and will probably continue to for awhile (see Carolina and Cam Newton last year), but St. Louis did look stout against Detroit last week - and Matt Stafford is more polished than RG3, for now. Still, I'll take the lack of film on this new Redskins attack as the advantage the Redskins use to win. I could see Seattle beating Dallas, also, especially at home - the Seahawks might have beaten Arizona if not for some poor pass-catching. But I like Dallas this year, so I expect them to carry their momentum to 2-0 here. The Jets' offensive explosion against Buffalo is a mirage to me until they do it against a respectable team... and look, here comes Pittsburgh. San Diego might not have beat Oakland if not for an injury to the Raiders' long-snapper... but I'll take them over Tennessee.
I want to think Detroit can beat San Francisco on Sunday Night, and they probably can - but that 49ers' team looks stacked this year, and if the Lions can't field their first-stringers in the secondary, well, I expect them to get carved up. Whoever comes out with the win on Sunday Night will have lofty expectations going forward.
And as for Monday... Peyton's Broncos looked pretty decent against Pittsburgh, but I think they run into a wall against the Falcons, who looked like the best team in the league on Week 1. These Falcons? Not a mirage. They'll roll.
Are Atlanta and San Francisco really the best teams in the league? What about the swoons of the Saints and Packers? See below...
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Chicago (1-0) @ Green Bay (0-1)
Early Sunday -
Kansas City (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Cincinnati (0-1)
Minnesota (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Oakland (0-1) @ Miami (0-1)
Arizona (1-0) @ New England (1-0)
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ NY Giants (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1) @ Carolina (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
Late Sunday -
Washington (1-0) @ St. Louis (0-1)
Dallas (1-0) @ Seattle (0-1)
NY Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1) @ San Diego (1-0)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (1-0) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Monday Night -
Denver (1-0) @ Atlanta (1-0)
I actually like Chicago over Green Bay... I think the Packers are due for a swoon, from a great team to a good one; however, I think they realize that they have to win this Thursday. Opening the season 0-2, both losses at home? The Pack must be feeling some urgency. If they win this, they can settle down; if not, they're stacking the deck against themselves.
I think Kansas City might turn out to be sneaky good, certainly over a bad Bills team. We won't get into the offensive train-wrecks that Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia appear to be. I sort of like the odds of Indianapolis over Minnesota, but I'll give the nod to the team with the second-year QB and all-star RB. I think Tampa might be better than we all expect, and wouldn't be surprised if they shock the Giants; but like the Packers, the Giants must feel some urgency to not open up the season 0-2. The Saints will probably take out their opening loss frustrations on a lackluster-looking Panthers team, while Houston should roll a Jaguars team that barely kept up with a less-than-stellar Vikings team last week.
I'm tempted to take St. Louis over Washington, also. The RG3-led Redskins impressed, and will probably continue to for awhile (see Carolina and Cam Newton last year), but St. Louis did look stout against Detroit last week - and Matt Stafford is more polished than RG3, for now. Still, I'll take the lack of film on this new Redskins attack as the advantage the Redskins use to win. I could see Seattle beating Dallas, also, especially at home - the Seahawks might have beaten Arizona if not for some poor pass-catching. But I like Dallas this year, so I expect them to carry their momentum to 2-0 here. The Jets' offensive explosion against Buffalo is a mirage to me until they do it against a respectable team... and look, here comes Pittsburgh. San Diego might not have beat Oakland if not for an injury to the Raiders' long-snapper... but I'll take them over Tennessee.
I want to think Detroit can beat San Francisco on Sunday Night, and they probably can - but that 49ers' team looks stacked this year, and if the Lions can't field their first-stringers in the secondary, well, I expect them to get carved up. Whoever comes out with the win on Sunday Night will have lofty expectations going forward.
And as for Monday... Peyton's Broncos looked pretty decent against Pittsburgh, but I think they run into a wall against the Falcons, who looked like the best team in the league on Week 1. These Falcons? Not a mirage. They'll roll.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 1
I'm back!
Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95.
I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am. I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see. But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.
Winners are in gold.
This week:
Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)
Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)
Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)
It's week one. Week one is the hardest to predict. There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot. Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.
First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay. We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago. As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all. I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick. Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise. Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many. I also like Oakland over San Diego. I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball. If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.
The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season. Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good. I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot. I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck. I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots. Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like. I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz. But that's just my thought.
I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game. At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.
Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95.
I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am. I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see. But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.
Winners are in gold.
This week:
Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)
Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)
Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)
It's week one. Week one is the hardest to predict. There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot. Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.
First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay. We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago. As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all. I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick. Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise. Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many. I also like Oakland over San Diego. I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball. If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.
The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season. Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good. I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot. I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck. I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots. Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like. I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz. But that's just my thought.
I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game. At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
The Saints, Bounties, and Violence in Football
I wrote a brief piece about this when it first broke out a month ago to the day. I return to touch on it again, hopefully in my last football piece for awhile, with such an exciting NHL postseason and MLB season on tap (more on those this weekend).
Today, some damning audio of Gregg Williams surfaced. Everyone's all in a tizzy! He yelled at his guys, told them to target injuries and take guys out. Everyone's really excited! He said things like "knock the fuck out of him" and "kill Frank Gore's head" and "[Crabtree] becomes human when we fucking take out his outside ACL" and so on and so forth. This story is dominating the newsvine right now, but I really have to wonder - why? Is anyone really surprised by this? Is anyone shocked or appalled by this, which is coming from a guy who has admitted to running a pay-for-injury bounty program in his defense? For that matter, is anyone surprised by this in any NFL locker room?
Look, I played a bit of sports in my day. Not a lot. I shot hoops and played baseball with friends growing up. I fenced in college. I've played beer-league softball. At any level of sport, with any group of guys, you're gonna get people saying things that sound really messed up out of context. At any level of sport, though, you are trying to win and you will take advantage of anything you can do so. If this means you're a CB and your WR has a concussion history, maybe you're extra aggressive with him at the line, try to make him a half-step slower, whatever. Maybe a guy has had knee surgery, so you hit him low when you do. Maybe you want a star NHL forward to think twice when he enters the offensive zone, so you land some good hits on him early. All of the resultant hits from these things could be completely clean and legal and all of them could lack any intent whatsoever to injure. But if you take them out of context, they might sound like it. Is there anyone who can imagine a pro locker room in football in which someone yelling "WE NEED TO FUCKING KILL THAT GUY" is out of place or uncommon? I didn't think so.
I'm not advocating for Williams. I'm not pardoning him. I stated a month ago that he should be banned from the NFL for life. The NFL is a dangerous, violent game. That will never change; that's the nature of it. If you want something a little more gentile, a little less violent, then watch baseball. If you want large men crashing violently into other large men, you watch football. If you want to watch more average-sized men crash violently into other average-sized men while moving very very fast on ice skates, you watch hockey. I enjoy all of these sports, personally, for various reasons besides the obvious violence. But I won't shy away from the reality - some of these sports are inherently violent and I admit to enjoying that regulated violence.
I do not endorse or enjoy, however, the active pursuit of intentional injury. Does it happen sometimes? Probably. If anyone out there thinks the Saints are the only team with a bounty program, they're deluding themselves. These are violent games played by people indoctrinated into that violence. It's not abnormal to them. It's completely ordinary and expected. Understand that there are different social mores at work. That yelling "WE NEED TO PUT THAT FUCKER DOWN" means something akin to "Knock him down a few times to make him think twice." Out of context, yeah, sounds worse. But without context, I refuse to judge completely. But having Gregg Williams, in light of the bounty scandal, calling out injuries to target (basically), isn't exactly good for him. But is it really that surprising? Really?
Football provides, perhaps, the perfect storm for this sort of thing. It's so highly regulated that it makes me think of how one child can instigate another and it's always the retaliatory child that gets caught. There aren't many methods of self-policing in football. Baseball and basketball aren't that violent in and of themselves. Hockey is, in my opinion, far more violent than football and dealing with similar concussion problems - however, in hockey, if you do something dirty, there's a whole team with a whole game's worth of opportunities to make you pay for it. People think fighting should be banned from hockey; I think fighting help keeps players in check and keep the game clean. You know if you exist too far outside the rules, you're gonna become a target of the dirty play you enact. It's fair to consider that the same controls don't exist in football; they're in the commissioner's office, not on the field.
Williams should be banned. What he instigated was egregious and anyone else caught doing the same should face the same penalty. If Roger Goodell truly wants to make the NFL a safer game, he has to crack down on this with the utmost sincerity and passion - which means he needs to start investigating better helmets for players, he needs to crack down hardest on coaches like Williams and Payton, and he needs to tell the league's television outlets to stop glamorizing hard hits. This isn't an overnight fix; it's a whole culture change. Football, like hockey, will always be a fast and violent sport. And whatever powers-that-be in those sports need to acknowledge that and accept that injuries will happen. People will get hurt playing these games.
A line has to be drawn. Intentional, egregious violence should be punished. Incidental violence that comes as part of the game should be accepted for what it is. But until I see these leagues pushing for better equipment and celebrating the violence less, I won't be able to believe their sincerity on the matter. At the end of the day, the violence of the sport is what brings revenue. Until Roger Goodell pulls programming celebrating bone-rattling hits, til he stops talking about 18-game seasons, til he starts pushing research or mandates for better (more expensive) helmets and equipment, he'll always seem two-faced on this topic to me: he wants a safer game, yes, but only if it doesn't threaten the revenue pie. And at the end of the day, sadly, that's all it's about.
Today, some damning audio of Gregg Williams surfaced. Everyone's all in a tizzy! He yelled at his guys, told them to target injuries and take guys out. Everyone's really excited! He said things like "knock the fuck out of him" and "kill Frank Gore's head" and "[Crabtree] becomes human when we fucking take out his outside ACL" and so on and so forth. This story is dominating the newsvine right now, but I really have to wonder - why? Is anyone really surprised by this? Is anyone shocked or appalled by this, which is coming from a guy who has admitted to running a pay-for-injury bounty program in his defense? For that matter, is anyone surprised by this in any NFL locker room?
Look, I played a bit of sports in my day. Not a lot. I shot hoops and played baseball with friends growing up. I fenced in college. I've played beer-league softball. At any level of sport, with any group of guys, you're gonna get people saying things that sound really messed up out of context. At any level of sport, though, you are trying to win and you will take advantage of anything you can do so. If this means you're a CB and your WR has a concussion history, maybe you're extra aggressive with him at the line, try to make him a half-step slower, whatever. Maybe a guy has had knee surgery, so you hit him low when you do. Maybe you want a star NHL forward to think twice when he enters the offensive zone, so you land some good hits on him early. All of the resultant hits from these things could be completely clean and legal and all of them could lack any intent whatsoever to injure. But if you take them out of context, they might sound like it. Is there anyone who can imagine a pro locker room in football in which someone yelling "WE NEED TO FUCKING KILL THAT GUY" is out of place or uncommon? I didn't think so.
I'm not advocating for Williams. I'm not pardoning him. I stated a month ago that he should be banned from the NFL for life. The NFL is a dangerous, violent game. That will never change; that's the nature of it. If you want something a little more gentile, a little less violent, then watch baseball. If you want large men crashing violently into other large men, you watch football. If you want to watch more average-sized men crash violently into other average-sized men while moving very very fast on ice skates, you watch hockey. I enjoy all of these sports, personally, for various reasons besides the obvious violence. But I won't shy away from the reality - some of these sports are inherently violent and I admit to enjoying that regulated violence.
I do not endorse or enjoy, however, the active pursuit of intentional injury. Does it happen sometimes? Probably. If anyone out there thinks the Saints are the only team with a bounty program, they're deluding themselves. These are violent games played by people indoctrinated into that violence. It's not abnormal to them. It's completely ordinary and expected. Understand that there are different social mores at work. That yelling "WE NEED TO PUT THAT FUCKER DOWN" means something akin to "Knock him down a few times to make him think twice." Out of context, yeah, sounds worse. But without context, I refuse to judge completely. But having Gregg Williams, in light of the bounty scandal, calling out injuries to target (basically), isn't exactly good for him. But is it really that surprising? Really?
Football provides, perhaps, the perfect storm for this sort of thing. It's so highly regulated that it makes me think of how one child can instigate another and it's always the retaliatory child that gets caught. There aren't many methods of self-policing in football. Baseball and basketball aren't that violent in and of themselves. Hockey is, in my opinion, far more violent than football and dealing with similar concussion problems - however, in hockey, if you do something dirty, there's a whole team with a whole game's worth of opportunities to make you pay for it. People think fighting should be banned from hockey; I think fighting help keeps players in check and keep the game clean. You know if you exist too far outside the rules, you're gonna become a target of the dirty play you enact. It's fair to consider that the same controls don't exist in football; they're in the commissioner's office, not on the field.
Williams should be banned. What he instigated was egregious and anyone else caught doing the same should face the same penalty. If Roger Goodell truly wants to make the NFL a safer game, he has to crack down on this with the utmost sincerity and passion - which means he needs to start investigating better helmets for players, he needs to crack down hardest on coaches like Williams and Payton, and he needs to tell the league's television outlets to stop glamorizing hard hits. This isn't an overnight fix; it's a whole culture change. Football, like hockey, will always be a fast and violent sport. And whatever powers-that-be in those sports need to acknowledge that and accept that injuries will happen. People will get hurt playing these games.
A line has to be drawn. Intentional, egregious violence should be punished. Incidental violence that comes as part of the game should be accepted for what it is. But until I see these leagues pushing for better equipment and celebrating the violence less, I won't be able to believe their sincerity on the matter. At the end of the day, the violence of the sport is what brings revenue. Until Roger Goodell pulls programming celebrating bone-rattling hits, til he stops talking about 18-game seasons, til he starts pushing research or mandates for better (more expensive) helmets and equipment, he'll always seem two-faced on this topic to me: he wants a safer game, yes, but only if it doesn't threaten the revenue pie. And at the end of the day, sadly, that's all it's about.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Bounties
I've been meaning to write about more than just the NFL, as I follow all of the major American sports (although that's admittedly less true for basketball than the others, but I still have opinions about Lin-sanity and I'm versed enough in the sport to talk about it), but here we are, the NFL bringing me back to the blog for the moment.
News came out at the end of last week that the Saints were running a bounty program that involved payment for landing big hits and/or injuring players of other teams. Most reports I'm reading make it sound like it was either player-initiated and run or it was run by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams; reports also indicate that head coach Sean Payton and GM Mickey Loomis knew about it without directly participating. News also includes that Loomis lied to the Saints' owner about it and didn't end it when instructed to do so.
Look, the NFL is a violent game. Players run into players. Guys get hit. Guys get hurt. But there's a line between sport and malice, too. What's happening with this probe into New Orleans crosses that line.
Now, I'm on board with believing that Gregg Williams is very much complicit in whatever happened and deserves the brunt of whatever punishment comes down. Williams's attitude has always been brash and brazen with a "we're coming after your guy" attitude. Anyone who's watched a Saints game and paid careful attention to their defense should have trouble disagreeing with these charges. In particular, I recall the 2009 season's NFC Championship game, when the Saints beat the Vikings. As I watched that game, I felt it inevitable that Favre was going to get hurt. They were coming after him. And hey, that's fine, that's strategy, and it got them the win. But if there's a payment behind that, specifically behind hurting a guy? That crosses a line and, having watched the Saints for a few years carefully as they've risen to prominence, I'm honestly not surprised by this. The other thing to note - Williams took off this offseason. There's always a trend of coaches leaving when they smell smoke. I wondered to myself when I heard that - why'd Williams leave a championship-contending team to move to a bottom-5 team in a lateral move (he was defensive coordinator in NO, is in STL)? Just to roll with Jeff Fisher again? That didn't jive with me entirely... but now that this is hitting the fan, well, Mr. Williams must have known things were coming down.
I expect there are bounties across the league on teams. It makes sense. You have guys playing a physical game, they're gonna make bets with each other, they're gonna put up pools. Most guys in male-dominated workplaces run sports gambling pools. It's against the rules. But it breaks up the monotony of the workweek and it's fun. Why wouldn't these guys do similar? The question is what the extent is. If a guy is buying his team dinner if he gets a KR TD, or if someone's winning $100 for an interception or sack, that's one thing. But if the rule is injury - if it's a payment for inflicting deliberate and malicious harm on someone else's body - well, that crosses a line that I find abhorrent. I give the NFL a lot of crap for being the "No Fun League" about some things. I hope they come down as hard as possible about this, though. Enough injury, enough harm, comes to players by virtue of playing the game itself; headhunting should be squelched as much as possible - in any sport, any league.
Kudos to James Harrison, though, for his little piece of input I saw this morning - he's curious to hear what the NFL comes down to on this, remarking that if he'd been complicit in something like this, he'd expect to be kicked out of the league. Given, he's remarking based on his reputation as of the last couple seasons, and while James Harrison does play a very physical, very old-school style of game, I don't think he's a particularly dirty player and was a convenient poster-child for the NFL's crackdown on big hits. I agree with him; I'm very interested to see how the NFL handles this, because it'll set a tone going forward.
News came out at the end of last week that the Saints were running a bounty program that involved payment for landing big hits and/or injuring players of other teams. Most reports I'm reading make it sound like it was either player-initiated and run or it was run by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams; reports also indicate that head coach Sean Payton and GM Mickey Loomis knew about it without directly participating. News also includes that Loomis lied to the Saints' owner about it and didn't end it when instructed to do so.
Look, the NFL is a violent game. Players run into players. Guys get hit. Guys get hurt. But there's a line between sport and malice, too. What's happening with this probe into New Orleans crosses that line.
Now, I'm on board with believing that Gregg Williams is very much complicit in whatever happened and deserves the brunt of whatever punishment comes down. Williams's attitude has always been brash and brazen with a "we're coming after your guy" attitude. Anyone who's watched a Saints game and paid careful attention to their defense should have trouble disagreeing with these charges. In particular, I recall the 2009 season's NFC Championship game, when the Saints beat the Vikings. As I watched that game, I felt it inevitable that Favre was going to get hurt. They were coming after him. And hey, that's fine, that's strategy, and it got them the win. But if there's a payment behind that, specifically behind hurting a guy? That crosses a line and, having watched the Saints for a few years carefully as they've risen to prominence, I'm honestly not surprised by this. The other thing to note - Williams took off this offseason. There's always a trend of coaches leaving when they smell smoke. I wondered to myself when I heard that - why'd Williams leave a championship-contending team to move to a bottom-5 team in a lateral move (he was defensive coordinator in NO, is in STL)? Just to roll with Jeff Fisher again? That didn't jive with me entirely... but now that this is hitting the fan, well, Mr. Williams must have known things were coming down.
I expect there are bounties across the league on teams. It makes sense. You have guys playing a physical game, they're gonna make bets with each other, they're gonna put up pools. Most guys in male-dominated workplaces run sports gambling pools. It's against the rules. But it breaks up the monotony of the workweek and it's fun. Why wouldn't these guys do similar? The question is what the extent is. If a guy is buying his team dinner if he gets a KR TD, or if someone's winning $100 for an interception or sack, that's one thing. But if the rule is injury - if it's a payment for inflicting deliberate and malicious harm on someone else's body - well, that crosses a line that I find abhorrent. I give the NFL a lot of crap for being the "No Fun League" about some things. I hope they come down as hard as possible about this, though. Enough injury, enough harm, comes to players by virtue of playing the game itself; headhunting should be squelched as much as possible - in any sport, any league.
Kudos to James Harrison, though, for his little piece of input I saw this morning - he's curious to hear what the NFL comes down to on this, remarking that if he'd been complicit in something like this, he'd expect to be kicked out of the league. Given, he's remarking based on his reputation as of the last couple seasons, and while James Harrison does play a very physical, very old-school style of game, I don't think he's a particularly dirty player and was a convenient poster-child for the NFL's crackdown on big hits. I agree with him; I'm very interested to see how the NFL handles this, because it'll set a tone going forward.
Friday, January 13, 2012
Pierce's Picks - NFL Divisional Championship Weekend
I went 2-2 last week, missing on New Orleans and Denver.
You may notice as you look at this week's slate of games that last week, all four Wild Card teams were eliminated. Home teams went 4-0 last week. Will it happen again? History says the divisional round is the most lopsided in favor of the home team (check the stats, really).
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (3-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
I feel like New Orleans is the team to beat right now in the NFC. Say what you want about the Packers, but is any team playing offense as well as the Saints? The Packers might be the most dynamic offense, but the Saints are becoming the most efficient. Shut down the run and they'll smoke you through the air. Take away their deep routes and they'll gash you short and with the run. They look indomitable. But the common maxim has always been that defense wins championships. That theory is put to the test in this game - the better offense or the better defense? I'm taking the Saints' offense, and a defense that's just good enough.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Denver (4-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
Tim vs. Tom. Denver's win last week was improbable and came against a battered Pittsburgh defense - make no mistake; Ike Taylor is not a great CB and the Steelers were playing all backups on their D-line. However, Pittsburgh's second-string defense is probably better than New England's first-string. But the Patriots offense, if it gets going, can shred Denver's defense. The onus of this game really falls on Denver's defense: can they make Brady uncomfortable and knock him off his rhythm? If yes, they have a chance. If not, then they'll get eviscerated again. If Tebow plays like he did last week and the Denver defense can tee off on Brady, Denver wins. But I don't think both of those things happen. Patriots roll, but it won't be as lopsided as their last meeting.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Houston (3-seed) @ Baltimore (2-seed)
I expect our AFC Super Bowl representative to be this game's winner. This will be a nasty game, a black-and-blue game, with the two best running backs in the game leading their teams. Arian Foster and Ray Rice are absolute beasts. Both teams play marvelous defense. It's going to come down to which quarterback stays cool under pressure and can make the tough throw in the clutch. I think Houston's ability to spell Foster with Ben Tate is an advantage for them, but I think Baltimore gets a big advantage with playoff-tested Joe Flacco, as opposed to T.J. Yates. Houston could pull this off. But I think they're a young team, new to the playoffs, going up against an experienced team on their turf. Veteran savvy of guys like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will lead the defense; the poise of Joe Flacco will be the difference between the two teams on offense. Baltimore will win a close, hard-fought game.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ Green Bay (1-seed)
The Giants have suddenly played three remarkable games in a row. In the regular season, we're bracing for the inevitable "how'd they lose that one" game. In the playoffs, well, 2007 taught us anything is possible. The Giants defense is meshing at the right time; they crushed Atlanta. The defensive line might be the best in the playoffs right now. If Kansas City can beat Green Bay, anyone can, and the G-Men are no strangers to playing in the cold. It's a lot like the Denver/New England game - if they can get pressure on Rodgers and Eli doesn't make mistakes, they win. And Rodgers hasn't played in three weeks, since McCarthy gave him Week 17 off. I've seen teams struggle after resting starters on Week 17, but I don't think that happens to Green Bay. Rodgers has been playing out of his mind and for them to lose their first playoff game this season would be a resounding disappointment. I think the Giants have a great chance at an upset here, but I don't see it happening.
You may notice as you look at this week's slate of games that last week, all four Wild Card teams were eliminated. Home teams went 4-0 last week. Will it happen again? History says the divisional round is the most lopsided in favor of the home team (check the stats, really).
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (3-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
I feel like New Orleans is the team to beat right now in the NFC. Say what you want about the Packers, but is any team playing offense as well as the Saints? The Packers might be the most dynamic offense, but the Saints are becoming the most efficient. Shut down the run and they'll smoke you through the air. Take away their deep routes and they'll gash you short and with the run. They look indomitable. But the common maxim has always been that defense wins championships. That theory is put to the test in this game - the better offense or the better defense? I'm taking the Saints' offense, and a defense that's just good enough.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Denver (4-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
Tim vs. Tom. Denver's win last week was improbable and came against a battered Pittsburgh defense - make no mistake; Ike Taylor is not a great CB and the Steelers were playing all backups on their D-line. However, Pittsburgh's second-string defense is probably better than New England's first-string. But the Patriots offense, if it gets going, can shred Denver's defense. The onus of this game really falls on Denver's defense: can they make Brady uncomfortable and knock him off his rhythm? If yes, they have a chance. If not, then they'll get eviscerated again. If Tebow plays like he did last week and the Denver defense can tee off on Brady, Denver wins. But I don't think both of those things happen. Patriots roll, but it won't be as lopsided as their last meeting.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Houston (3-seed) @ Baltimore (2-seed)
I expect our AFC Super Bowl representative to be this game's winner. This will be a nasty game, a black-and-blue game, with the two best running backs in the game leading their teams. Arian Foster and Ray Rice are absolute beasts. Both teams play marvelous defense. It's going to come down to which quarterback stays cool under pressure and can make the tough throw in the clutch. I think Houston's ability to spell Foster with Ben Tate is an advantage for them, but I think Baltimore gets a big advantage with playoff-tested Joe Flacco, as opposed to T.J. Yates. Houston could pull this off. But I think they're a young team, new to the playoffs, going up against an experienced team on their turf. Veteran savvy of guys like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will lead the defense; the poise of Joe Flacco will be the difference between the two teams on offense. Baltimore will win a close, hard-fought game.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ Green Bay (1-seed)
The Giants have suddenly played three remarkable games in a row. In the regular season, we're bracing for the inevitable "how'd they lose that one" game. In the playoffs, well, 2007 taught us anything is possible. The Giants defense is meshing at the right time; they crushed Atlanta. The defensive line might be the best in the playoffs right now. If Kansas City can beat Green Bay, anyone can, and the G-Men are no strangers to playing in the cold. It's a lot like the Denver/New England game - if they can get pressure on Rodgers and Eli doesn't make mistakes, they win. And Rodgers hasn't played in three weeks, since McCarthy gave him Week 17 off. I've seen teams struggle after resting starters on Week 17, but I don't think that happens to Green Bay. Rodgers has been playing out of his mind and for them to lose their first playoff game this season would be a resounding disappointment. I think the Giants have a great chance at an upset here, but I don't see it happening.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Pierce's Picks - NFL Wild Card Weekend
After a 159-97 season record for me, it's time to look ahead to the matchups this weekend and see how the NFL playoffs will unfold. I'll give more talk per game in the playoffs than I do during the season.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Cincinnati (6-seed) @ Houston (3-seed)
Both teams stumbled into the playoffs, so neither really has a lot of momentum going on. Houston might start Jake Delhomme at QB if T.J. Yates can't go, but word lately is that Yates will be fine. Still, their options are either the late-round rookie who looked unflappable at first but then began to wilt slightly, or a guy whose last playoff performance was an epic disaster. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to step up, along with Houston's defense, to win here. For Cincinnati, they can't underestimate this game. In fact, it should play a lot like a game against Pittsburgh or Baltimore for them - tough defense and a lot of running the ball. The problem? They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They lost to Houston, as well, surrendering a last-second TD. While I think losing to a team and then playing them again later can offer some benefits insofar as game-planning goes, I don't think Cincinnati has the weapons, the experience, or the hunger yet to keep up with the Texans or anyone else in the AFC playoff field. They'll be a better, more-prepared team next year, but they're not going anywhere else this year.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Detroit (6-seed) @ New Orleans (3-seed)
Make no mistake - this is the game of the weekend. Two 5,000-yard passers facing off for the first time in NFL history, leading two dynamic (yet very different) offenses. The Lions played the Saints after Thanksgiving and lost 31-17, something the sports pundits are going on about. The Saints are also playing their best football of the season right now. I don't think either team is overlooking each other. The Lions kept it close in December until penalties derailed them; and that was with their best safety, cornerback and running back out. Those men - Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Kevin Smith - are all ready for this game. If the Lions can play solid, mistake-free ball and not make dumb penalties at dumb times, this is a winnable game for them. For the Saints, they need to blitz Stafford and get him off his rhythm - his numbers with a pass-rush of 5+ are lower than standard, but you have to think the Lions prepared for that this week. Still, the Saints blitz better than anyone right now. Otherwise, the Saints just need to roll on as they have been lately. Still, something about this game screams trap to me - everything seems to favor the Saints and in a playoff atmosphere, with so much on the line, against a team that's young and hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder, you just never know what can happen. My football brain says Saints, but my gut says Lions and my heart bleeds Honolulu Blue & Silver - so I think the Lions bring it this week and stun the Saints at home.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (5-seed) @ NY Giants (4-seed)
This is a tough matchup to pick. The Giants tend to play a horrible game after playing one or two great ones; I'm waiting for that pattern to kick in. Atlanta does the same, losing inexplicably at times. Both QBs are good, but not great; both can have elite games and both can be mistake-prone. Both teams have run-games that get the job done, but aren't as explosive as you might want. Both teams feature solid defenses. Earlier in the week, I thought about picking Atlanta, but really, the Falcons haven't shown me anything lately. The Giants, however, are rolling. It's not always pretty, but they get it done. Beyond that, I think the Giants have the key to this game - their pass-rush. It's the one particular area that I think these teams are strikingly different and I think it makes the big difference, especially when coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan's record is much better indoors than it is outside. Eli's experience and familiarity playing outside trumps Ryan's. Giants advance.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Pittsburgh (5-seed) @ Denver (4-seed)
Where to begin? What to say? The Tim Tebow delusion has come crashing to reality over the last two weeks - against Buffalo and Kansas City. I doubt the gritty Steelers defense will be any more merciful to the young QB. This is the most lop-sided, most obvious matchup of the playoffs to me. Denver has a couple advantages - Big Ben's lack of health in his foot and that they're at home, playing at Mile High, which is often something opponents have to adapt to due to the thinner air (Ryan Clark will be inactive for the game, for example, due to his asthma combined with the thin air). I don't expect the Tim Tebow Option offense to work against Pittsburgh. This is a savvy, nasty, veteran defense. There's enough tape out there of Tebow now that teams are figuring him out and truly exposing him. While Denver's defense has been very good this season, they won't be able to hold the Steelers low enough to keep it close, especially if Tebow offers up a number of turnovers as he has lately. The talent gap and experience gap between these two teams is gigantic and based on recent play, I find it impossible to think that a team that lost its last 3, yet won its division with an 8-8 record, goes anywhere in the playoffs.
--
Yes, I know. I talk about talent gap and experience gap and use that as a factor to count out Cincinnati and Denver, yet not Detroit. Fair enough, calling me out on that. But look closely. I think the talent gap between Detroit and New Orleans is smaller than people observe. The primary difference between them is that Detroit's running game isn't there. Otherwise, they're relatively comparable across the board. Statistically, the Saints are a weaker pass defense than the Lions, but a better run defense. Both are top-5 passing teams, but the Saints run the ball effectively. Both utilize the tight-end position well and are fine using short dump-offs to the tight end or screens to the running back as a supplemental running game. The difference on defense is that the Saints blitz more, whereas the Lions typically stick to the 4-man rush, due to their ability to rotate out D-linemen throughout the game. That's the other key - the Lions need to generate pressure with their 4-man rush (didn't happen in the loss) or get sliced apart; they also need to pickup the Saints' blitz, or Stafford needs to be making some good pre-snap reads to identify single-coverage and get the ball out fast. If the Lions are prepared, the Saints' blitzing ways could hurt them.
The Saints are Super Bowl winners. They have experience. The Lions only have six players who have played in a playoff game. Why isn't that a big deal to me? Well, we'll see. The way it'll manifest negatively is if the Lions lose their cool like they did against Green Bay and New Orleans earlier this season. Schwartz has re-emphasized discipline since then and the best example of it came in the 38-10 decimation of San Diego - a game in which the Lions committed 3 penalties for 8 yards, with all 3 coming at inconsequential moments. If they can do that against the Saints, the game will stay close - it only got out of hand in December due to horrendous post-whistle personal fouls and other such chippy behavior. I think they remember that game. I think it's fuel now. That loss, on national TV, hurt and showed a Lions team that wasn't ready for the spotlight. You can't tell me that isn't on their mind now, waiting for Saturday night to roll around, thinking, "We'll show 'em we're ready now." I think they are.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Cincinnati (6-seed) @ Houston (3-seed)
Both teams stumbled into the playoffs, so neither really has a lot of momentum going on. Houston might start Jake Delhomme at QB if T.J. Yates can't go, but word lately is that Yates will be fine. Still, their options are either the late-round rookie who looked unflappable at first but then began to wilt slightly, or a guy whose last playoff performance was an epic disaster. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to step up, along with Houston's defense, to win here. For Cincinnati, they can't underestimate this game. In fact, it should play a lot like a game against Pittsburgh or Baltimore for them - tough defense and a lot of running the ball. The problem? They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They lost to Houston, as well, surrendering a last-second TD. While I think losing to a team and then playing them again later can offer some benefits insofar as game-planning goes, I don't think Cincinnati has the weapons, the experience, or the hunger yet to keep up with the Texans or anyone else in the AFC playoff field. They'll be a better, more-prepared team next year, but they're not going anywhere else this year.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Detroit (6-seed) @ New Orleans (3-seed)
Make no mistake - this is the game of the weekend. Two 5,000-yard passers facing off for the first time in NFL history, leading two dynamic (yet very different) offenses. The Lions played the Saints after Thanksgiving and lost 31-17, something the sports pundits are going on about. The Saints are also playing their best football of the season right now. I don't think either team is overlooking each other. The Lions kept it close in December until penalties derailed them; and that was with their best safety, cornerback and running back out. Those men - Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Kevin Smith - are all ready for this game. If the Lions can play solid, mistake-free ball and not make dumb penalties at dumb times, this is a winnable game for them. For the Saints, they need to blitz Stafford and get him off his rhythm - his numbers with a pass-rush of 5+ are lower than standard, but you have to think the Lions prepared for that this week. Still, the Saints blitz better than anyone right now. Otherwise, the Saints just need to roll on as they have been lately. Still, something about this game screams trap to me - everything seems to favor the Saints and in a playoff atmosphere, with so much on the line, against a team that's young and hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder, you just never know what can happen. My football brain says Saints, but my gut says Lions and my heart bleeds Honolulu Blue & Silver - so I think the Lions bring it this week and stun the Saints at home.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (5-seed) @ NY Giants (4-seed)
This is a tough matchup to pick. The Giants tend to play a horrible game after playing one or two great ones; I'm waiting for that pattern to kick in. Atlanta does the same, losing inexplicably at times. Both QBs are good, but not great; both can have elite games and both can be mistake-prone. Both teams have run-games that get the job done, but aren't as explosive as you might want. Both teams feature solid defenses. Earlier in the week, I thought about picking Atlanta, but really, the Falcons haven't shown me anything lately. The Giants, however, are rolling. It's not always pretty, but they get it done. Beyond that, I think the Giants have the key to this game - their pass-rush. It's the one particular area that I think these teams are strikingly different and I think it makes the big difference, especially when coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan's record is much better indoors than it is outside. Eli's experience and familiarity playing outside trumps Ryan's. Giants advance.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Pittsburgh (5-seed) @ Denver (4-seed)
Where to begin? What to say? The Tim Tebow delusion has come crashing to reality over the last two weeks - against Buffalo and Kansas City. I doubt the gritty Steelers defense will be any more merciful to the young QB. This is the most lop-sided, most obvious matchup of the playoffs to me. Denver has a couple advantages - Big Ben's lack of health in his foot and that they're at home, playing at Mile High, which is often something opponents have to adapt to due to the thinner air (Ryan Clark will be inactive for the game, for example, due to his asthma combined with the thin air). I don't expect the Tim Tebow Option offense to work against Pittsburgh. This is a savvy, nasty, veteran defense. There's enough tape out there of Tebow now that teams are figuring him out and truly exposing him. While Denver's defense has been very good this season, they won't be able to hold the Steelers low enough to keep it close, especially if Tebow offers up a number of turnovers as he has lately. The talent gap and experience gap between these two teams is gigantic and based on recent play, I find it impossible to think that a team that lost its last 3, yet won its division with an 8-8 record, goes anywhere in the playoffs.
--
Yes, I know. I talk about talent gap and experience gap and use that as a factor to count out Cincinnati and Denver, yet not Detroit. Fair enough, calling me out on that. But look closely. I think the talent gap between Detroit and New Orleans is smaller than people observe. The primary difference between them is that Detroit's running game isn't there. Otherwise, they're relatively comparable across the board. Statistically, the Saints are a weaker pass defense than the Lions, but a better run defense. Both are top-5 passing teams, but the Saints run the ball effectively. Both utilize the tight-end position well and are fine using short dump-offs to the tight end or screens to the running back as a supplemental running game. The difference on defense is that the Saints blitz more, whereas the Lions typically stick to the 4-man rush, due to their ability to rotate out D-linemen throughout the game. That's the other key - the Lions need to generate pressure with their 4-man rush (didn't happen in the loss) or get sliced apart; they also need to pickup the Saints' blitz, or Stafford needs to be making some good pre-snap reads to identify single-coverage and get the ball out fast. If the Lions are prepared, the Saints' blitzing ways could hurt them.
The Saints are Super Bowl winners. They have experience. The Lions only have six players who have played in a playoff game. Why isn't that a big deal to me? Well, we'll see. The way it'll manifest negatively is if the Lions lose their cool like they did against Green Bay and New Orleans earlier this season. Schwartz has re-emphasized discipline since then and the best example of it came in the 38-10 decimation of San Diego - a game in which the Lions committed 3 penalties for 8 yards, with all 3 coming at inconsequential moments. If they can do that against the Saints, the game will stay close - it only got out of hand in December due to horrendous post-whistle personal fouls and other such chippy behavior. I think they remember that game. I think it's fuel now. That loss, on national TV, hurt and showed a Lions team that wasn't ready for the spotlight. You can't tell me that isn't on their mind now, waiting for Saturday night to roll around, thinking, "We'll show 'em we're ready now." I think they are.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 17
Last week saw a repeat of 9-7, putting my season mark at 149-91.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 16
Almost there; two weeks left. Last week I went 9-7, putting my season at 140-82.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Week 15
Last week, I went 8-8, putting my season mark at 131-75.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 14
Last week saw me at 11-5 again, bumping my mark to 123-67.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 13
Last week was 11-5, making my season mark 112-62.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
Friday, November 25, 2011
The 2011 Detroit Lions, as the turkey digests...
The Lions stand at 7-4 after Thanksgiving, with some tough games and some not-so-tough games yet on the schedule. It still seems realistic, if not likely, that they'll hit my projected 10-6 mark and have a shot at an NFC Wild Card playoff spot. They're a good team for the first time in a decade, a team that should have a winning record every year and should be in playoff contention. But when I watch them play good teams, it becomes evident to me that there's yet a gulf between the Lions and the way playoff-winning teams look.
That's okay. A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time. I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half. But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.
The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen. You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early. I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart. To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive. In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB. Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything. That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.
The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving. First is the penalties. They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up. At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have. If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers. Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely. As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert. When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers. They need to clean up the penalties. Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.
The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync. It's not. Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue. After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way. Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had. They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later. Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game. Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having. Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.
Third - Ndamukong Suh. I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique. Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well. He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength. This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders. The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact. On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff. Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.
But I can no longer defend Suh. Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away. On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line. It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play. He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team. A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.
Suh deserved to get ejected. That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator. And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned. Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs. I like that fiery attitude. I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off. Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see. And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem. The NFL should suspend Suh. I expect that to happen. I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh. I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too." It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him. I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.
Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted. I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression. As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world? Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it. It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player. Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it. He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that. But the Detroit Lions need to step up here. Suh is one of the faces of the team. It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation. The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it. They should. At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.
That's okay. A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time. I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half. But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.
The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen. You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early. I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart. To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive. In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB. Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything. That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.
The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving. First is the penalties. They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up. At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have. If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers. Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely. As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert. When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers. They need to clean up the penalties. Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.
The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync. It's not. Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue. After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way. Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had. They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later. Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game. Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having. Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.
Third - Ndamukong Suh. I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique. Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well. He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength. This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders. The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact. On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff. Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.
But I can no longer defend Suh. Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away. On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line. It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play. He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team. A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.
Suh deserved to get ejected. That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator. And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned. Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs. I like that fiery attitude. I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off. Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see. And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem. The NFL should suspend Suh. I expect that to happen. I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh. I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too." It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him. I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.
Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted. I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression. As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world? Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it. It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player. Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it. He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that. But the Detroit Lions need to step up here. Suh is one of the faces of the team. It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation. The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it. They should. At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving!
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 11
Ouch. 5-11 last week.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 10
I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
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