Friday, April 27, 2012

The Eastern Conference Semifinals

Three Game 7s!  Excellent!  Surprising ones, too.  But the East has wrapped up and the semifinals start tonight with the first Phoenix/Nashville game, and start in earnest tomorrow with two games (Wash/NY and STL/LA).

I went 3-1 in my Eastern picks, only whiffing on Boston, but every series went much longer than I expected, other than the unceremonious ousting of the Penguins by the Flyers.  The East turned out to be much tougher than I expected, top-to-bottom.

Eastern Conference Semifinals -

New York (1-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
This is the series I'm really for this round.  While I like the potential between St. Louis and Los Angeles for a defensive struggle, this is a series that's packed across the ice - great goaltending, solid defense, potentially explosive offense.  The Rangers kept their poise after Ottawa took them to the brink; Washington did the same against the defending Stanley Cup champions.  Without the pressure of a high seed or a wildly successful regular season, is this the year for the Caps?  They seem to have a certain swagger, but it's hard to trust their playoff legs.  Washington is a sexy pick here, and for good reason, but New York's stability is hard to question.  Holtby's a great story but can he keep it going?  I expect this series to be close and to go the distance.  The difference between going home and advancing might be one bad bounce.
New York in 7.

Philadelphia (5-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
I expected both teams to win and be here; I didn't expect the Devils to take so long to do it.  The Flyers are rested and coming off an emotional series domination of their in-state rival.  They're physical, riding high, and forcing teams to play their way.  The Devils left Florida push them to the brink.  I don't think the Flyers will be so kind.  Bryzgalov barely outplayed Fleury in Pittsburgh, though; he has to be better to beat Brodeur.
Philadelphia in 6.

The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -

Boston (2-seed)
This just had the feeling of a tumultuous, unfulfilling season for Boston, ever since that Tim Thomas/White House stuff got built up.  There's no run here, but Boston's core should remain.  The real question going forward will be to stick with Thomas or not, since he's been painted as a somewhat divisive figure on the team. The Bruins don't have a lot of cap room, but they also don't have a lot of expiring contracts, with Rolston being the biggest one that stands out.  No reason to worry too much here.

Florida (3-seed)
I don't see how this season can't be considered a huge success.  In Dave Tallon's first year as GM, he took an annual bottom-feeder and won the division.  They've got a handful of expiring contracts, but plenty of cap space to throw around.  This team can continue to build and should, in theory, build on their success, also.  Their biggest problem will be finding reasons to avoid relocation.

Pittsburgh (4-seed)
On the flip-side from Florida, Penguins fans can't consider this season anything other than a raging disappointment.  After a slow start early, the Pens fired up and Malkin carried them to a strong 4-seed finish.  Crosby returned, galvanizing hype and making them the top pick for the Cup.  So much for that.  Out-muscled, out-hustled, and out-played by the Flyers, they looked ill-prepared and weak in one of the ugliest playoff series I've seen in awhile.  They suddenly have a huge problem in goal, where Marc-Andre Fleury spent the playoffs doing his best impression of Swiss cheese.  However, the Pens' core players are locked up for next year, so there's no reason to believe they won't compete at a high level again.  But this postseason was particularly crushing to them, and we'll have to see how it affects their psyche when the puck drops again in October.

Ottawa (8-seed)
After being absent from the playoffs for some years, Ottawa returned this year to give the 1-seed Rangers a shocking run for their money.  They're comfortable with the cap, and while they've got some expiring contracts, their core guys are set for next year.  They're in a very similar position as Florida - good cap room, most contracts set, lots of room to maneuver for next year.  Just a matter of how they spend what they've got and how the success of this season affects them going forward.

No comments:

Post a Comment