Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 1

I'm back! 

Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95. 

I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am.  I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see.  But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.

Winners are in gold.

This week:

Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)

Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)

Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)

Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)

It's week one.  Week one is the hardest to predict.  There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot.  Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.

First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay.  We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago.  As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all.  I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick.  Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise.  Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many.  I also like Oakland over San Diego.  I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball.  If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.

The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season.  Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good.  I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot.  I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck.  I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots.  Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like.  I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz.  But that's just my thought.

I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game.  At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.