After a 159-97 season record for me, it's time to look ahead to the matchups this weekend and see how the NFL playoffs will unfold. I'll give more talk per game in the playoffs than I do during the season.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Cincinnati (6-seed) @ Houston (3-seed)
Both teams stumbled into the playoffs, so neither really has a lot of momentum going on. Houston might start Jake Delhomme at QB if T.J. Yates can't go, but word lately is that Yates will be fine. Still, their options are either the late-round rookie who looked unflappable at first but then began to wilt slightly, or a guy whose last playoff performance was an epic disaster. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to step up, along with Houston's defense, to win here. For Cincinnati, they can't underestimate this game. In fact, it should play a lot like a game against Pittsburgh or Baltimore for them - tough defense and a lot of running the ball. The problem? They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They lost to Houston, as well, surrendering a last-second TD. While I think losing to a team and then playing them again later can offer some benefits insofar as game-planning goes, I don't think Cincinnati has the weapons, the experience, or the hunger yet to keep up with the Texans or anyone else in the AFC playoff field. They'll be a better, more-prepared team next year, but they're not going anywhere else this year.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Detroit (6-seed) @ New Orleans (3-seed)
Make no mistake - this is the game of the weekend. Two 5,000-yard passers facing off for the first time in NFL history, leading two dynamic (yet very different) offenses. The Lions played the Saints after Thanksgiving and lost 31-17, something the sports pundits are going on about. The Saints are also playing their best football of the season right now. I don't think either team is overlooking each other. The Lions kept it close in December until penalties derailed them; and that was with their best safety, cornerback and running back out. Those men - Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Kevin Smith - are all ready for this game. If the Lions can play solid, mistake-free ball and not make dumb penalties at dumb times, this is a winnable game for them. For the Saints, they need to blitz Stafford and get him off his rhythm - his numbers with a pass-rush of 5+ are lower than standard, but you have to think the Lions prepared for that this week. Still, the Saints blitz better than anyone right now. Otherwise, the Saints just need to roll on as they have been lately. Still, something about this game screams trap to me - everything seems to favor the Saints and in a playoff atmosphere, with so much on the line, against a team that's young and hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder, you just never know what can happen. My football brain says Saints, but my gut says Lions and my heart bleeds Honolulu Blue & Silver - so I think the Lions bring it this week and stun the Saints at home.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (5-seed) @ NY Giants (4-seed)
This is a tough matchup to pick. The Giants tend to play a horrible game after playing one or two great ones; I'm waiting for that pattern to kick in. Atlanta does the same, losing inexplicably at times. Both QBs are good, but not great; both can have elite games and both can be mistake-prone. Both teams have run-games that get the job done, but aren't as explosive as you might want. Both teams feature solid defenses. Earlier in the week, I thought about picking Atlanta, but really, the Falcons haven't shown me anything lately. The Giants, however, are rolling. It's not always pretty, but they get it done. Beyond that, I think the Giants have the key to this game - their pass-rush. It's the one particular area that I think these teams are strikingly different and I think it makes the big difference, especially when coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan's record is much better indoors than it is outside. Eli's experience and familiarity playing outside trumps Ryan's. Giants advance.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Pittsburgh (5-seed) @ Denver (4-seed)
Where to begin? What to say? The Tim Tebow delusion has come crashing to reality over the last two weeks - against Buffalo and Kansas City. I doubt the gritty Steelers defense will be any more merciful to the young QB. This is the most lop-sided, most obvious matchup of the playoffs to me. Denver has a couple advantages - Big Ben's lack of health in his foot and that they're at home, playing at Mile High, which is often something opponents have to adapt to due to the thinner air (Ryan Clark will be inactive for the game, for example, due to his asthma combined with the thin air). I don't expect the Tim Tebow Option offense to work against Pittsburgh. This is a savvy, nasty, veteran defense. There's enough tape out there of Tebow now that teams are figuring him out and truly exposing him. While Denver's defense has been very good this season, they won't be able to hold the Steelers low enough to keep it close, especially if Tebow offers up a number of turnovers as he has lately. The talent gap and experience gap between these two teams is gigantic and based on recent play, I find it impossible to think that a team that lost its last 3, yet won its division with an 8-8 record, goes anywhere in the playoffs.
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Yes, I know. I talk about talent gap and experience gap and use that as a factor to count out Cincinnati and Denver, yet not Detroit. Fair enough, calling me out on that. But look closely. I think the talent gap between Detroit and New Orleans is smaller than people observe. The primary difference between them is that Detroit's running game isn't there. Otherwise, they're relatively comparable across the board. Statistically, the Saints are a weaker pass defense than the Lions, but a better run defense. Both are top-5 passing teams, but the Saints run the ball effectively. Both utilize the tight-end position well and are fine using short dump-offs to the tight end or screens to the running back as a supplemental running game. The difference on defense is that the Saints blitz more, whereas the Lions typically stick to the 4-man rush, due to their ability to rotate out D-linemen throughout the game. That's the other key - the Lions need to generate pressure with their 4-man rush (didn't happen in the loss) or get sliced apart; they also need to pickup the Saints' blitz, or Stafford needs to be making some good pre-snap reads to identify single-coverage and get the ball out fast. If the Lions are prepared, the Saints' blitzing ways could hurt them.
The Saints are Super Bowl winners. They have experience. The Lions only have six players who have played in a playoff game. Why isn't that a big deal to me? Well, we'll see. The way it'll manifest negatively is if the Lions lose their cool like they did against Green Bay and New Orleans earlier this season. Schwartz has re-emphasized discipline since then and the best example of it came in the 38-10 decimation of San Diego - a game in which the Lions committed 3 penalties for 8 yards, with all 3 coming at inconsequential moments. If they can do that against the Saints, the game will stay close - it only got out of hand in December due to horrendous post-whistle personal fouls and other such chippy behavior. I think they remember that game. I think it's fuel now. That loss, on national TV, hurt and showed a Lions team that wasn't ready for the spotlight. You can't tell me that isn't on their mind now, waiting for Saturday night to roll around, thinking, "We'll show 'em we're ready now." I think they are.
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