Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Pierce's Picks - NFL Conference Championship Weekend

I went 2-2 again, putting me at 4-4 so far for the playoffs.

I knew I should have picked the Giants last week - Green Bay felt too much like a Peyton Manning Classic Colts team that rested their starters on Week 17 and then would lose in the second round because everyone was rusty and out-of-sync.  Like 'em or not, Belicheck and his Patriots have always had the right idea insofar as playing every down.  Still not sure why their starters were on the field in the fourth quarter last week, though.

Amazing how far Houston pressed Baltimore, especially with T.J. Yates finally playing like a rookie - he wasn't awful, but he wasn't great, definitely not good enough for the playoffs that game.  What promise that young guy shows, though.  Hard to think the Texans keep him and Matt Leinart after this season.  I feel like Houston was the team to win it all if they'd been healthy - they got this far with their 1st/2nd-string QBs down for the last few weeks and with Mario Williams out.  This is the best team in the AFC, folks... they just caught some bad breaks this year.  Watch out next season.

That San Francisco/New Orleans game was the most exciting of the year so far.

Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Baltimore (2-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
This smells like the 49ers/Saints game.  Given, the home-field advantage is reversed.  But still.  Who really expects Baltimore to win this one?  Flacco had a so-so game and the offense looked out of sync last week.  But they survived and that defense looks geared up.  I feel like the tough Houston matchup has people doubting the Ravens whereas the soft Broncos matchup has people high on the Patriots.  The Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams this season; New England hasn't beaten a team with a winning record.  I think Baltimore brings it when it counts.  Even in this year of wacky offense, it's clear - defense wins championships.

Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
And that brings us to this matchup, of what has been the two best defenses in the NFC in the latter part of the season.  The Giants are riding a huge streak of playing quality football, for about five straight weeks now, basically since that ugly 23-10 loss to the Redskins.  San Francisco, though, has been the most consistent team in the entire league, week-in and week-out.  They come to play and that team just looks special this year.  I like the Giants and they definitely have some of that Super Bowl XLII magic going for them this year - who isn't flashing back to that team as they watch the 2011 Giants in the playoffs? - but I feel like consistency is the key here.  Alex Smith showed us his gusto last week and I feel like home-field advantage helps the 49ers here.  That crowd is going to be stoked.  I still can't quite put faith fully into the Giants - they pounded a Falcons team that was predictably hapless outdoors and a Green Bay team that doesn't play defense.  The 49ers beat the Saints.  The 49ers will beat the Giants.

Yes.  I am predicting the SUPER HARBAUGH BOWL.  Although a Super Bowl XLII rematch would be fun, but far less engrossing to me, to be honest.  Seen it.  It'd be fun, but, seen it.  The only way that'd be fun is if we watched the Patriots lose a gut-wrencher again.  I want to see the first Super Bowl between brothers.

In other news -
Peyton Manning can't remain a Colt.  I'd be shocked if he does and I think it'd be a terrible move by the new GM if he did.  New GM?  Bring in the new coach, bring in a new QB.  Learn from Green Bay and part ways with your veteran once you're rebuilding; learn from Detroit and bring in a new front office, new coach, and new QB all together.  As for where Peyton goes?  Tough call.  I saw a write-up by one of the Grantland writers that basically said the 49ers were the most logical choice - they'd dominate the NFC for the rest of his career and could build the rest of the team in that time, while grooming a QB-of-the-future.  That makes the most sense to me, but if the 49ers win the Super Bowl, why not stay with Alex Smith?  He certainly proved himself against the Saints.  I think if Baltimore flares out because Joe Flacco falters, that's a logical option, too.  If you're a Ravens fan, you've gotta be holding your breath half the time the game rides on Flacco's shoulders, even if his statistics come out good.  I have trouble seeing Peyton as a Jet - the very character of that team seems contrary to his personality; but besides that, it's also a logical fit.  Plus he'd get to play Tom Brady twice a year for awhile yet.  Beyond that, it's hard to find playoff-caliber teams with that gaping of a need at QB and it's hard to imagine Peyton going to a rebuilding team for his twilight years.  If you go that route, Arizona makes sense and Ken Whisenhunt might like to have a veteran QB come in and save his job next year.  Or who knows, Peyton might retire.  No one really talks about that, but the guy's had three neck surgeries in two years and already has a Super Bowl ring.  He might be content with what he's got.  We'll see.

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