Pierce's Picks - Super Bowl XLVI

Well, I botched my Conference Championship picks, so I sit at 4-6 on the playoffs this year.

Sunday, February 5th, 2012
~6:30pm ET
Super Bowl XLVI

NY Giants (4-seed) vs. New England (1-seed)


Four years ago, I picked the Patriots to win it all and go 19-0.  This year, I'm backing the Giants, for the reasons I learned in 2007.

The Patriots have been suspect to me all year - that they got this far is proof of a weak AFC playoff field, in my opinion.  I feel that a healthy Texans team would have beaten both Baltimore and New England (and the NY Giants, for that matter).  But this is what we've got.  The Patriots lack of defense concerns me.  To be fair, though, I had the same concern about the Colts the year they won it all.  But I feel like they won't be able to keep up and expected someone to exploit that earlier - but they lucked out and got to face a lame Denver team and an offensively-inconsistent Ravens team.  Neither of those teams were gelling like the Giants are right now.

As for the NY Giants, they've been the best team in football the last six weeks or so.  The key to this game really is in their pass rush - if they can get in Brady's face and make him uncomfortable all game long, they'll win.  It's as simple as that.  The rest will fall into place.  The Giants' pass rush has been great all playoffs long - often getting pressure with just a 4-man rush, allowing them to drop seven into coverage.  If they can do that against the Patriots, I feel like they'll hold up.  Pundits are remarking on the Giants overall defensive ranking (low, but not lower than the Patriots), but really, to gauge the Giants we're seeing right now, you have to ignore much of the early season and just look at recent games.  They're on fire.  They roll on.

The NYG pass rush is the key.  If it works, they win.  If not, they lose.