Well, I botched my Conference Championship picks, so I sit at 4-6 on the playoffs this year.
Sunday, February 5th, 2012
~6:30pm ET
Super Bowl XLVI
NY Giants (4-seed) vs. New England (1-seed)
Four years ago, I picked the Patriots to win it all and go 19-0. This year, I'm backing the Giants, for the reasons I learned in 2007.
The Patriots have been suspect to me all year - that they got this far is proof of a weak AFC playoff field, in my opinion. I feel that a healthy Texans team would have beaten both Baltimore and New England (and the NY Giants, for that matter). But this is what we've got. The Patriots lack of defense concerns me. To be fair, though, I had the same concern about the Colts the year they won it all. But I feel like they won't be able to keep up and expected someone to exploit that earlier - but they lucked out and got to face a lame Denver team and an offensively-inconsistent Ravens team. Neither of those teams were gelling like the Giants are right now.
As for the NY Giants, they've been the best team in football the last six weeks or so. The key to this game really is in their pass rush - if they can get in Brady's face and make him uncomfortable all game long, they'll win. It's as simple as that. The rest will fall into place. The Giants' pass rush has been great all playoffs long - often getting pressure with just a 4-man rush, allowing them to drop seven into coverage. If they can do that against the Patriots, I feel like they'll hold up. Pundits are remarking on the Giants overall defensive ranking (low, but not lower than the Patriots), but really, to gauge the Giants we're seeing right now, you have to ignore much of the early season and just look at recent games. They're on fire. They roll on.
The NYG pass rush is the key. If it works, they win. If not, they lose.
Showing posts with label Pierce's Picks 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pierce's Picks 2011. Show all posts
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Pierce's Picks - NFL Conference Championship Weekend
I went 2-2 again, putting me at 4-4 so far for the playoffs.
I knew I should have picked the Giants last week - Green Bay felt too much like a Peyton Manning Classic Colts team that rested their starters on Week 17 and then would lose in the second round because everyone was rusty and out-of-sync. Like 'em or not, Belicheck and his Patriots have always had the right idea insofar as playing every down. Still not sure why their starters were on the field in the fourth quarter last week, though.
Amazing how far Houston pressed Baltimore, especially with T.J. Yates finally playing like a rookie - he wasn't awful, but he wasn't great, definitely not good enough for the playoffs that game. What promise that young guy shows, though. Hard to think the Texans keep him and Matt Leinart after this season. I feel like Houston was the team to win it all if they'd been healthy - they got this far with their 1st/2nd-string QBs down for the last few weeks and with Mario Williams out. This is the best team in the AFC, folks... they just caught some bad breaks this year. Watch out next season.
That San Francisco/New Orleans game was the most exciting of the year so far.
Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Baltimore (2-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
This smells like the 49ers/Saints game. Given, the home-field advantage is reversed. But still. Who really expects Baltimore to win this one? Flacco had a so-so game and the offense looked out of sync last week. But they survived and that defense looks geared up. I feel like the tough Houston matchup has people doubting the Ravens whereas the soft Broncos matchup has people high on the Patriots. The Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams this season; New England hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. I think Baltimore brings it when it counts. Even in this year of wacky offense, it's clear - defense wins championships.
Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
And that brings us to this matchup, of what has been the two best defenses in the NFC in the latter part of the season. The Giants are riding a huge streak of playing quality football, for about five straight weeks now, basically since that ugly 23-10 loss to the Redskins. San Francisco, though, has been the most consistent team in the entire league, week-in and week-out. They come to play and that team just looks special this year. I like the Giants and they definitely have some of that Super Bowl XLII magic going for them this year - who isn't flashing back to that team as they watch the 2011 Giants in the playoffs? - but I feel like consistency is the key here. Alex Smith showed us his gusto last week and I feel like home-field advantage helps the 49ers here. That crowd is going to be stoked. I still can't quite put faith fully into the Giants - they pounded a Falcons team that was predictably hapless outdoors and a Green Bay team that doesn't play defense. The 49ers beat the Saints. The 49ers will beat the Giants.
Yes. I am predicting the SUPER HARBAUGH BOWL. Although a Super Bowl XLII rematch would be fun, but far less engrossing to me, to be honest. Seen it. It'd be fun, but, seen it. The only way that'd be fun is if we watched the Patriots lose a gut-wrencher again. I want to see the first Super Bowl between brothers.
In other news -
Peyton Manning can't remain a Colt. I'd be shocked if he does and I think it'd be a terrible move by the new GM if he did. New GM? Bring in the new coach, bring in a new QB. Learn from Green Bay and part ways with your veteran once you're rebuilding; learn from Detroit and bring in a new front office, new coach, and new QB all together. As for where Peyton goes? Tough call. I saw a write-up by one of the Grantland writers that basically said the 49ers were the most logical choice - they'd dominate the NFC for the rest of his career and could build the rest of the team in that time, while grooming a QB-of-the-future. That makes the most sense to me, but if the 49ers win the Super Bowl, why not stay with Alex Smith? He certainly proved himself against the Saints. I think if Baltimore flares out because Joe Flacco falters, that's a logical option, too. If you're a Ravens fan, you've gotta be holding your breath half the time the game rides on Flacco's shoulders, even if his statistics come out good. I have trouble seeing Peyton as a Jet - the very character of that team seems contrary to his personality; but besides that, it's also a logical fit. Plus he'd get to play Tom Brady twice a year for awhile yet. Beyond that, it's hard to find playoff-caliber teams with that gaping of a need at QB and it's hard to imagine Peyton going to a rebuilding team for his twilight years. If you go that route, Arizona makes sense and Ken Whisenhunt might like to have a veteran QB come in and save his job next year. Or who knows, Peyton might retire. No one really talks about that, but the guy's had three neck surgeries in two years and already has a Super Bowl ring. He might be content with what he's got. We'll see.
I knew I should have picked the Giants last week - Green Bay felt too much like a Peyton Manning Classic Colts team that rested their starters on Week 17 and then would lose in the second round because everyone was rusty and out-of-sync. Like 'em or not, Belicheck and his Patriots have always had the right idea insofar as playing every down. Still not sure why their starters were on the field in the fourth quarter last week, though.
Amazing how far Houston pressed Baltimore, especially with T.J. Yates finally playing like a rookie - he wasn't awful, but he wasn't great, definitely not good enough for the playoffs that game. What promise that young guy shows, though. Hard to think the Texans keep him and Matt Leinart after this season. I feel like Houston was the team to win it all if they'd been healthy - they got this far with their 1st/2nd-string QBs down for the last few weeks and with Mario Williams out. This is the best team in the AFC, folks... they just caught some bad breaks this year. Watch out next season.
That San Francisco/New Orleans game was the most exciting of the year so far.
Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Baltimore (2-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
This smells like the 49ers/Saints game. Given, the home-field advantage is reversed. But still. Who really expects Baltimore to win this one? Flacco had a so-so game and the offense looked out of sync last week. But they survived and that defense looks geared up. I feel like the tough Houston matchup has people doubting the Ravens whereas the soft Broncos matchup has people high on the Patriots. The Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams this season; New England hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. I think Baltimore brings it when it counts. Even in this year of wacky offense, it's clear - defense wins championships.
Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
And that brings us to this matchup, of what has been the two best defenses in the NFC in the latter part of the season. The Giants are riding a huge streak of playing quality football, for about five straight weeks now, basically since that ugly 23-10 loss to the Redskins. San Francisco, though, has been the most consistent team in the entire league, week-in and week-out. They come to play and that team just looks special this year. I like the Giants and they definitely have some of that Super Bowl XLII magic going for them this year - who isn't flashing back to that team as they watch the 2011 Giants in the playoffs? - but I feel like consistency is the key here. Alex Smith showed us his gusto last week and I feel like home-field advantage helps the 49ers here. That crowd is going to be stoked. I still can't quite put faith fully into the Giants - they pounded a Falcons team that was predictably hapless outdoors and a Green Bay team that doesn't play defense. The 49ers beat the Saints. The 49ers will beat the Giants.
Yes. I am predicting the SUPER HARBAUGH BOWL. Although a Super Bowl XLII rematch would be fun, but far less engrossing to me, to be honest. Seen it. It'd be fun, but, seen it. The only way that'd be fun is if we watched the Patriots lose a gut-wrencher again. I want to see the first Super Bowl between brothers.
In other news -
Peyton Manning can't remain a Colt. I'd be shocked if he does and I think it'd be a terrible move by the new GM if he did. New GM? Bring in the new coach, bring in a new QB. Learn from Green Bay and part ways with your veteran once you're rebuilding; learn from Detroit and bring in a new front office, new coach, and new QB all together. As for where Peyton goes? Tough call. I saw a write-up by one of the Grantland writers that basically said the 49ers were the most logical choice - they'd dominate the NFC for the rest of his career and could build the rest of the team in that time, while grooming a QB-of-the-future. That makes the most sense to me, but if the 49ers win the Super Bowl, why not stay with Alex Smith? He certainly proved himself against the Saints. I think if Baltimore flares out because Joe Flacco falters, that's a logical option, too. If you're a Ravens fan, you've gotta be holding your breath half the time the game rides on Flacco's shoulders, even if his statistics come out good. I have trouble seeing Peyton as a Jet - the very character of that team seems contrary to his personality; but besides that, it's also a logical fit. Plus he'd get to play Tom Brady twice a year for awhile yet. Beyond that, it's hard to find playoff-caliber teams with that gaping of a need at QB and it's hard to imagine Peyton going to a rebuilding team for his twilight years. If you go that route, Arizona makes sense and Ken Whisenhunt might like to have a veteran QB come in and save his job next year. Or who knows, Peyton might retire. No one really talks about that, but the guy's had three neck surgeries in two years and already has a Super Bowl ring. He might be content with what he's got. We'll see.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 17
Last week saw a repeat of 9-7, putting my season mark at 149-91.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 16
Almost there; two weeks left. Last week I went 9-7, putting my season at 140-82.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Week 15
Last week, I went 8-8, putting my season mark at 131-75.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 14
Last week saw me at 11-5 again, bumping my mark to 123-67.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 13
Last week was 11-5, making my season mark 112-62.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving!
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 11
Ouch. 5-11 last week.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 10
I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 9
Last week was 9-4, putting me at 79-37 on the season thusfar.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 8
Oof. Last week saw me sink to 8-5, which puts my season record at 70-33.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 7
Last week saw me go 9-4; six teams not playing again.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 6
A respectable 10-3 record last week in the first week of the year with teams off.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 5
Week 4 was an improvement on Week 3 - I went 11-5 last week.
That puts my season at 43-21 so far.
So far, I've learned these lessons this season:
1) The Redskins are for real, by playing a run-first, defense-first type of football.
2) The 49ers are for real, but less so than the Redskins, because they're in the NFC West.
3) The Steelers are getting old, fast, and it's showing.
4) The Lions are 4-0 and have yet to play a good, complete 60-minute game this year.
5) The Packers are 4-0 and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL right now.
6) Donovan McNabb is washed up.
7) Cam Newton is the real deal.
8) Josh McDaniels is having a horrifically adverse effect on the Rams offense.
As for this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Philadelphia (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Jacksonville (1-3)
Tennessee (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)
Kansas City (1-3) @ Indianapolis (0-4)
Oakland (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)
Arizona (1-3) @ Minnesota (0-4)
New Orleans (3-1) @ Carolina (1-3)
Seattle (1-3) @ NY Giants (3-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ San Francisco (3-1)
San Diego (3-1) @ Denver (1-3)
NY Jets (2-2) @ New England (3-1)
Sunday Night -
Green Bay (4-0) @ Atlanta (2-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-2) @ Detroit (4-0)
Byes -
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Based on four weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Nice slate this week. Obviously, the Seahawks will lose - West Coast traveling to East Coast for an early game rule in effect. I'm tempted to use that rule on Arizona, but they're only traveling to Central time and the Vikings are awful, so there. The Bills face the desperate Eagles after suffering their first loss - which team reacts to adversity better? Tough call. I think we can officially put every Carolina game in "trap game" status for the other team - the Panthers won't win a lot of games this year, but will be better than their record and good to beat anyone on any given Sunday; I'm still not picking them yet, though. I'm also not ready to pick the Colts to beat anybody - not even the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay and San Francisco game should be educational - it's a big game for those teams as they try to preserve 1-loss records. Pittsburgh has to beat Tennessee, but the Titans are playing some tough ball. Like Philly, though, the Steelers need a win to boost themselves. I think one of the Pennsylvania teams wins this week and the other's downward spiral steepens. Normally, I'd like Houston at home over Oakland - but not with Andre Johnson gone. Gonna be a lot of running the ball in that game.
My sincere hope is for an undefeated Packers team to meet an undefeated Lions team on Thanksgiving - that'd be intense. But I feel like that's unlikely and that something will give this week. Am I picking against either team right now? Hell no. But Matt Ryan's Falcons have only lost twice at home and the Lions have yet to play a complete game. Will Matt Ryan's success at home continue against an awful Packer pass defense? Will the sloppy first half play of the Lions finally catch up to them? I could see these scenarios playing out, but I'm not going to try and predict upsets here yet.
In other news, I have a bone to pick with the NFL. This whole new rule where every scoring play is reviewed is absolutely bogus. It's extending game times and creating one or two extra commercial breaks each touchdown. I'm settling into a rhythm of getting up after every scoring play because I know it'll be reviewed, no matter how clear it is, and I have time to make a sandwich or grab, drink and grab another beer. It's ridiculous. First of all, it's just not necessary. Secondly, isn't that what coaches' challenges are for? It seems that rules are taking challenges more and more out of coaches' hands. Leave it alone. This is a fix for something that wasn't broken and it's infuriating as a fan.
As for my survival picks, which have been completely bad this year, this week is a tougher one. I'd probably take the NY Giants as the surest pick, with secondary considerations to New Orleans and San Diego. But the Giants are only home team of those three, which gives them an edge for me, especially against a West Coast team. Easy one this week, I think.
That puts my season at 43-21 so far.
So far, I've learned these lessons this season:
1) The Redskins are for real, by playing a run-first, defense-first type of football.
2) The 49ers are for real, but less so than the Redskins, because they're in the NFC West.
3) The Steelers are getting old, fast, and it's showing.
4) The Lions are 4-0 and have yet to play a good, complete 60-minute game this year.
5) The Packers are 4-0 and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL right now.
6) Donovan McNabb is washed up.
7) Cam Newton is the real deal.
8) Josh McDaniels is having a horrifically adverse effect on the Rams offense.
As for this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Philadelphia (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Jacksonville (1-3)
Tennessee (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)
Kansas City (1-3) @ Indianapolis (0-4)
Oakland (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)
Arizona (1-3) @ Minnesota (0-4)
New Orleans (3-1) @ Carolina (1-3)
Seattle (1-3) @ NY Giants (3-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ San Francisco (3-1)
San Diego (3-1) @ Denver (1-3)
NY Jets (2-2) @ New England (3-1)
Sunday Night -
Green Bay (4-0) @ Atlanta (2-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-2) @ Detroit (4-0)
Byes -
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Based on four weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Nice slate this week. Obviously, the Seahawks will lose - West Coast traveling to East Coast for an early game rule in effect. I'm tempted to use that rule on Arizona, but they're only traveling to Central time and the Vikings are awful, so there. The Bills face the desperate Eagles after suffering their first loss - which team reacts to adversity better? Tough call. I think we can officially put every Carolina game in "trap game" status for the other team - the Panthers won't win a lot of games this year, but will be better than their record and good to beat anyone on any given Sunday; I'm still not picking them yet, though. I'm also not ready to pick the Colts to beat anybody - not even the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay and San Francisco game should be educational - it's a big game for those teams as they try to preserve 1-loss records. Pittsburgh has to beat Tennessee, but the Titans are playing some tough ball. Like Philly, though, the Steelers need a win to boost themselves. I think one of the Pennsylvania teams wins this week and the other's downward spiral steepens. Normally, I'd like Houston at home over Oakland - but not with Andre Johnson gone. Gonna be a lot of running the ball in that game.
My sincere hope is for an undefeated Packers team to meet an undefeated Lions team on Thanksgiving - that'd be intense. But I feel like that's unlikely and that something will give this week. Am I picking against either team right now? Hell no. But Matt Ryan's Falcons have only lost twice at home and the Lions have yet to play a complete game. Will Matt Ryan's success at home continue against an awful Packer pass defense? Will the sloppy first half play of the Lions finally catch up to them? I could see these scenarios playing out, but I'm not going to try and predict upsets here yet.
In other news, I have a bone to pick with the NFL. This whole new rule where every scoring play is reviewed is absolutely bogus. It's extending game times and creating one or two extra commercial breaks each touchdown. I'm settling into a rhythm of getting up after every scoring play because I know it'll be reviewed, no matter how clear it is, and I have time to make a sandwich or grab, drink and grab another beer. It's ridiculous. First of all, it's just not necessary. Secondly, isn't that what coaches' challenges are for? It seems that rules are taking challenges more and more out of coaches' hands. Leave it alone. This is a fix for something that wasn't broken and it's infuriating as a fan.
As for my survival picks, which have been completely bad this year, this week is a tougher one. I'd probably take the NY Giants as the surest pick, with secondary considerations to New Orleans and San Diego. But the Giants are only home team of those three, which gives them an edge for me, especially against a West Coast team. Easy one this week, I think.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 4
So last week was a little rougher - I went 8-8. That puts my season at 32-16.
But as per when we fail, we certainly learned a lot last week, as teams made some serious declarations about themselves as this season begins to take real shape.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2)
Carolina (1-2) @ Chicago (1-2)
Tennessee (2-1) @ Cleveland (2-1)
Detroit (3-0) @ Dallas (2-1)
Minnesota (0-3) @ Kansas City (0-3)
Washington (2-1) @ St. Louis (0-3)
New Orleans (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ Philadelphia (1-2)
Pittsburgh (2-1) @ Houston (2-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (2-1) @ Seattle (1-2)
NY Giants (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2)
Denver (1-2) @ Green Bay (3-0)
New England (2-1) @ Oakland (2-1)
Miami (0-3) @ San Diego (2-1)
Sunday Night -
NY Jets (2-1) @ Baltimore (2-1)
Monday Night -
Indianapolis (0-3) @ Tampa Bay (2-1)
Based on three weeks of play, right now I would predict the Buffalo over Detroit in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like all three undefeated teams have fairly easy matchups... Detroit's seems the most challenging, but I don't think Dallas is that good, and the Lions' D-line should put some fear in Romo early. I think the Colts will throw away the season and win Andrew Luck. It makes sense. I think Miami is horrible. I also think Kansas City is horrible, definitely moreso than Minnesota, who showed a lot of life last week (play-calling jacked them up more than anything). Not sure what the deal is in St. Louis, but I'm not touching that - the Redskins are playing inspired football. I'm buying into the Bills and I'm buying into Oakland. The Raiders look for real and I think they're a way tougher team than the Patriots, who look very soft and very bad at pass defense. Anyone else see Tom Brady half-ass it on Buffalo's pick-six last week? Yeah, that tells me you've won too much and your time in the sun is over. Arizona couldn't beat Seattle, so I've got no faith in that team anymore, since Seattle is still horrible. Tennessee/Cleveland is a very hard match to call - Tennessee has shown me more lately, but that ought to be close. I could see Houston beating Pittsburgh too; Pittsburgh does not appear to be as good as they used to be and Houston kept up with the Saints last week. There'll be things to learn in that one; big game for both. I could also see Carolina being the upset of the week over Chicago, but I don't have enough faith in Team Cam quite yet to pick 'em. But they're on my radar.
All of my recommended survival picks panned out last week except for Cincinnati, but my strongest recommendations were Pittsburgh or Carolina, anyway. That Pittsburgh pick looked mighty good in hindsight now; given that they barely beat a weak Colts team, I'd have trouble finding faith to use them again soon.
My recommended picks this week would be Minnesota, in perhaps the only situation all year you'd use them, or Tampa Bay. San Diego is a good one, too, although the Dolphins are better on the road than at home. But those are my top three, no question. Other considerations go to Green Bay, but you'll probably want them later, or Atlanta, who really might not be as good as we thought. The NY Giants are a thought, too, but Arizona might be out for blood after losing to the Seahawks. So take heed. I like Minnesota and Tampa Bay the most, as I don't expect a lot of opportunity to use them later.
But as per when we fail, we certainly learned a lot last week, as teams made some serious declarations about themselves as this season begins to take real shape.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2)
Carolina (1-2) @ Chicago (1-2)
Tennessee (2-1) @ Cleveland (2-1)
Detroit (3-0) @ Dallas (2-1)
Minnesota (0-3) @ Kansas City (0-3)
Washington (2-1) @ St. Louis (0-3)
New Orleans (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ Philadelphia (1-2)
Pittsburgh (2-1) @ Houston (2-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (2-1) @ Seattle (1-2)
NY Giants (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2)
Denver (1-2) @ Green Bay (3-0)
New England (2-1) @ Oakland (2-1)
Miami (0-3) @ San Diego (2-1)
Sunday Night -
NY Jets (2-1) @ Baltimore (2-1)
Monday Night -
Indianapolis (0-3) @ Tampa Bay (2-1)
Based on three weeks of play, right now I would predict the Buffalo over Detroit in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like all three undefeated teams have fairly easy matchups... Detroit's seems the most challenging, but I don't think Dallas is that good, and the Lions' D-line should put some fear in Romo early. I think the Colts will throw away the season and win Andrew Luck. It makes sense. I think Miami is horrible. I also think Kansas City is horrible, definitely moreso than Minnesota, who showed a lot of life last week (play-calling jacked them up more than anything). Not sure what the deal is in St. Louis, but I'm not touching that - the Redskins are playing inspired football. I'm buying into the Bills and I'm buying into Oakland. The Raiders look for real and I think they're a way tougher team than the Patriots, who look very soft and very bad at pass defense. Anyone else see Tom Brady half-ass it on Buffalo's pick-six last week? Yeah, that tells me you've won too much and your time in the sun is over. Arizona couldn't beat Seattle, so I've got no faith in that team anymore, since Seattle is still horrible. Tennessee/Cleveland is a very hard match to call - Tennessee has shown me more lately, but that ought to be close. I could see Houston beating Pittsburgh too; Pittsburgh does not appear to be as good as they used to be and Houston kept up with the Saints last week. There'll be things to learn in that one; big game for both. I could also see Carolina being the upset of the week over Chicago, but I don't have enough faith in Team Cam quite yet to pick 'em. But they're on my radar.
All of my recommended survival picks panned out last week except for Cincinnati, but my strongest recommendations were Pittsburgh or Carolina, anyway. That Pittsburgh pick looked mighty good in hindsight now; given that they barely beat a weak Colts team, I'd have trouble finding faith to use them again soon.
My recommended picks this week would be Minnesota, in perhaps the only situation all year you'd use them, or Tampa Bay. San Diego is a good one, too, although the Dolphins are better on the road than at home. But those are my top three, no question. Other considerations go to Green Bay, but you'll probably want them later, or Atlanta, who really might not be as good as we thought. The NY Giants are a thought, too, but Arizona might be out for blood after losing to the Seahawks. So take heed. I like Minnesota and Tampa Bay the most, as I don't expect a lot of opportunity to use them later.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 3
This whole thing about faking injuries to slow down games is really amusing to me. Is it news to the NFL that this happens? It's seemed obvious to me for years... as a result, I've come to believe that the "penalty" for an injured player is too easy - if a player is injured and requires an injury timeout, they're forced to miss the next play. If they're okay, they can come back. One play? Seems a pretty minor thing to lose a DL or DB for if the offense is killing you with a no-huddle. Heck, depending on your defensive package rotation, you could time it so that player isn't needed next play anyway. The NFL is now up in arms about the Giants possibly faking injuries in last week's Monday Night game. Their solution would be to look at handing out fines. Big deal. Who cares? If they want to stop injury fakers, the solution is simple and obvious: change the "penalty" for it. If a player requires an injury timeout, change the rule so that injured players have to sit out the rest of the drive. That's reasonable, to better assess injury and a player's condition, and it also will prevent players from faking injuries, because one play might not mean much, but losing a player for a drive can result in points. Makes sense, right?
Anyway, onto the picks.
Last week, I went a stunning 14-2, whiffing only on the Ravens and the Eagles. The Ravens were a legit upset - in the other game, I disobeyed one of the obvious rules of pick 'em the past couple years: always take Matty Ice in the Georgia Dome. Oops. Guess I was too high on the Eagles.
That puts me at 24-8 on the season so far.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
San Francisco (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1)
Miami (0-2) @ Cleveland (1-1)
Denver (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1)
Detroit (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Houston (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
NY Giants (1-1) @ Philadelphia (1-1)
Jacksonville (1-1) @ Carolina (0-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1)
NY Jets (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1)
Baltimore (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2)
Atlanta (1-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-1)
Green Bay (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1)
Arizona (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Indianapolis (0-2)
Monday Night -
Washington (2-0) @ Dallas (1-1)
Based on two weeks of play, right now I would predict Detroit over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Some tough picks this week; I think Houston/New Orleans could really go either way... just who plays better defense. I think Buffalo could legitimately upset New England, since the Patriots are playing awful defense, but give the edge to the Pats... but how the Bills play will say a lot about that team. Tampa could upset Atlanta too; that game is in Tampa, after all. Carolina/Jacksonville will see Gabbert vs. Newton - I think Carolina is the better team with the better rookie at QB. Could St. Louis upset Baltimore? Wouldn't shock me. Tennessee should beat Denver, in theory, but I think both are bad teams. I like Miami over Cleveland - that's a must win for Miami or their season goes into tailspin and Cleveland couldn't beat Cincinnati. Speaking of which, Cincy over San Francisco. I like that pick. I have almost zero faith in the NFC West again.
Hey, remember when Pittsburgh/Indy looked like a really good game? Right, not anymore... and I think Washington pulls an upset on Dallas. With no Tony Romo, that suddenly better-than-advertised Washington defense will control the game.
On a sidenote, I think the Colts need to blow this season and win the Andrew Luck lottery. What a home run it would be for them to bring in Luck in the twilight of Manning's career and let him sit for a year or two behind one of this generation's best. Luck is almost pro-ready anyway; if that situation were to play out, he'd end up in a great position. But one thing is true of the Colts, which I've thought for awhile - they need Peyton to function. The Colts could continue a line of great stability at the position if they were able to pull off something like that.
For survival picks this week, I'd avoid the Lions - only because history is against them and I'm not 100% sold on the team yet. I want to be; but Tampa beat themselves and Kansas City is reeling. If they can lay out the Vikings in the 'Dome, then we'll know they're probably for real, but I won't believe it til mid-season - after all, remember in 2007 when they started out 6-2, yet bombed out for a 7-9 finish before they went 0-16. Nonetheless, if the Lions go 4-0 entering their home Monday Night game and win that one, I'll be convinced.
Real survival picks I like this week would be - Pittsburgh as a duh, no-brainer. And given how old that team is looking in places, this is a good week to use them. Carolina is feasible if you want to gamble, and since you'd probably never use them later. San Diego is a lock, and I'd also go with Cincinnati (another team you're unlikely to use later) or Tennessee, for the same reason. You could use Baltimore, but that game gives me a bad feeling and that's a team that, if they're for real, you'll want to have later on.
Anyway, onto the picks.
Last week, I went a stunning 14-2, whiffing only on the Ravens and the Eagles. The Ravens were a legit upset - in the other game, I disobeyed one of the obvious rules of pick 'em the past couple years: always take Matty Ice in the Georgia Dome. Oops. Guess I was too high on the Eagles.
That puts me at 24-8 on the season so far.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
San Francisco (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1)
Miami (0-2) @ Cleveland (1-1)
Denver (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1)
Detroit (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Houston (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
NY Giants (1-1) @ Philadelphia (1-1)
Jacksonville (1-1) @ Carolina (0-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1)
NY Jets (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1)
Baltimore (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2)
Atlanta (1-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-1)
Green Bay (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1)
Arizona (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Indianapolis (0-2)
Monday Night -
Washington (2-0) @ Dallas (1-1)
Based on two weeks of play, right now I would predict Detroit over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Some tough picks this week; I think Houston/New Orleans could really go either way... just who plays better defense. I think Buffalo could legitimately upset New England, since the Patriots are playing awful defense, but give the edge to the Pats... but how the Bills play will say a lot about that team. Tampa could upset Atlanta too; that game is in Tampa, after all. Carolina/Jacksonville will see Gabbert vs. Newton - I think Carolina is the better team with the better rookie at QB. Could St. Louis upset Baltimore? Wouldn't shock me. Tennessee should beat Denver, in theory, but I think both are bad teams. I like Miami over Cleveland - that's a must win for Miami or their season goes into tailspin and Cleveland couldn't beat Cincinnati. Speaking of which, Cincy over San Francisco. I like that pick. I have almost zero faith in the NFC West again.
Hey, remember when Pittsburgh/Indy looked like a really good game? Right, not anymore... and I think Washington pulls an upset on Dallas. With no Tony Romo, that suddenly better-than-advertised Washington defense will control the game.
On a sidenote, I think the Colts need to blow this season and win the Andrew Luck lottery. What a home run it would be for them to bring in Luck in the twilight of Manning's career and let him sit for a year or two behind one of this generation's best. Luck is almost pro-ready anyway; if that situation were to play out, he'd end up in a great position. But one thing is true of the Colts, which I've thought for awhile - they need Peyton to function. The Colts could continue a line of great stability at the position if they were able to pull off something like that.
For survival picks this week, I'd avoid the Lions - only because history is against them and I'm not 100% sold on the team yet. I want to be; but Tampa beat themselves and Kansas City is reeling. If they can lay out the Vikings in the 'Dome, then we'll know they're probably for real, but I won't believe it til mid-season - after all, remember in 2007 when they started out 6-2, yet bombed out for a 7-9 finish before they went 0-16. Nonetheless, if the Lions go 4-0 entering their home Monday Night game and win that one, I'll be convinced.
Real survival picks I like this week would be - Pittsburgh as a duh, no-brainer. And given how old that team is looking in places, this is a good week to use them. Carolina is feasible if you want to gamble, and since you'd probably never use them later. San Diego is a lock, and I'd also go with Cincinnati (another team you're unlikely to use later) or Tennessee, for the same reason. You could use Baltimore, but that game gives me a bad feeling and that's a team that, if they're for real, you'll want to have later on.
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