Thursday, September 27, 2012

Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 4

7-9 again.  Sheesh.  Too much focus on baseball and hockey this past year, it would seem, has made me forget just how much can change in one football season.  This is a much more fluid sport we're talking about here, where one year can result in huge changes.

Here we go for week 4.  Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Cleveland (0-3) @ Baltimore (2-1)

Sunday Early -
Carolina (1-2) @ Atlanta (3-0)
New England (1-2) @ Buffalo (2-1)
Minnesota (2-1) @ Detroit (1-2)
San Diego (2-1) @ Kansas City (1-2)
Seattle (2-1) @ St. Louis (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ NY Jets (2-1)
Tennessee (1-2) @ Houston (3-0)

Sunday Late -
Oakland (1-2) @ Denver (1-2)
Miami (1-2) @ Arizona (4-0)
Cincinnati (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
New Orleans (0-3) @ Green Bay (1-2)
Washington (1-2) @ Tampa Bay (1-2)

Sunday Night -
NY Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia (2-1)

Monday Night -
Chicago (2-1) @ Dallas (2-1)

Baltimore and Cleveland is a pretty self-explanatory one, don't you think?  Baltimore might just be the best team in the AFC, although Houston might have something to say about that.

Speaking of best teams in a conference, Atlanta looks primed this year, while Carolina looks like an entire team experiencing a sophomore slump.  New England will likely destroy Buffalo after feeling robbed against Baltimore; but boy, wouldn't this game make an epic upset?  Something about the Patriots seems off, but I expect them to do their thing here.  As a Lions fan, I'm terrified of the Vikings game coming up - it's basically a must-win for the Lions, with their bye week afterwards.  The Vikings, however, look like the most complete and fundamentally sound team in the NFC North.  If this were in Minnesota, I'd take the Vikes, but I feel like a home game that's a must-win... gotta be the Lions, right?  I still don't like San Diego, but I do like Kansas City.  No reasoning here, really, but if Jamaal Charles has gotten going... well, yeah.  I like Seattle a lot, also, against a somewhat sound, but still mediocre Rams squad.  Likewise, San Francisco should reassert themselves after a shocking loss last week when they play the haphazard Jets this week.  Houston should keep pace as one of the top-2 teams in the AFC, also, when they roll the Titans up.

I'm still not sure how Oakland beat Pittsburgh, but I'll take Denver here.  It's at home, and Denver needs a win.  If it were in Oakland, hm.  But in Denver... well, at least for this week, I'll take Peyton in Denver over McFadden; but Oakland reads a lot like Kansas City - if McFadden is rolling, they can win.  I love Arizona's defense and expect them to trounce Miami based on that alone.  Cincinnati is a better team than Jacksonville; this game has potential for upset if MJD gets going, but I'll take the more complete team.  New Orleans and Green Bay are playing in the Crushed Expectations Bowl this weekend, and both teams desperately need the win.  I'll take the home team.  Whoever loses can basically write off this season.  I like Tampa against Washington also; RG3 is solid, but needs time yet, and that Tampa defense just looks might respectable.

Philly looks like a disaster to me.  How do they have two wins?  Giants on Sunday Night.

Same for Chicago, really.  They snuck by the Rams last week, but I just don't buy that team at all.  I think Dallas does a number on them.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 3

Ouch.  7-9 last week.  Which only proves what we already knew - what we see in Week 1 isn't always the truth.

Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)

Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)

Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)

Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)

Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)

In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report.  Who do they plan to suit up?  Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here.  I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.

Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game.  If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.

I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here.  Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.

I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument).  But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week.  I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close.  But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.

Tennessee just doesn't look good.  Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town.  This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.

Jacksonville?  They don't look good this year.  Indianapolis?  They look sneaky good.  Andrew Luck's the real deal.  Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.

I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either.  The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen.  We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.

San Francisco is the best team in the NFL.  End of story.  The Vikings?  They're sneaky good.  Seriously.  But it won't look like it this week.

New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team.  They have to win it.  Right?  Right?  Have to.  More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win.  If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.

I don't believe in Cincinnati.  I do believe in RG3.  Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.

I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check.  Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.

San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams.  Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL.  Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.

Houston?  Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl).  Denver?  One of the most overrated teams in the league.  Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.

We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland.  Pittsburgh rolls here.

Baltimore's better.  End of story.  I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably.  Baltimore is young and on the rise.  Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.

Green Bay.  Seattle.  In Seattle.  Really tough call.  Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense.  Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson.  Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either.  I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more.  But right now, this early?  I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm.  However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 2

Week 1 saw me go 10-6; not bad to start the season.

Are Atlanta and San Francisco really the best teams in the league?  What about the swoons of the Saints and Packers?  See below...

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
Chicago (1-0) @ Green Bay (0-1)

Early Sunday -
Kansas City (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Cincinnati (0-1)
Minnesota (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Oakland (0-1) @ Miami (0-1)
Arizona (1-0) @ New England (1-0)
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ NY Giants (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1) @ Carolina (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)

Late Sunday -
Washington (1-0) @ St. Louis (0-1)
Dallas (1-0) @ Seattle (0-1)
NY Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1) @ San Diego (1-0)

Sunday Night -
Detroit (1-0) @ San Francisco (1-0)

Monday Night -
Denver (1-0) @ Atlanta (1-0)

I actually like Chicago over Green Bay... I think the Packers are due for a swoon, from a great team to a good one; however, I think they realize that they have to win this Thursday.  Opening the season 0-2, both losses at home?  The Pack must be feeling some urgency.  If they win this, they can settle down; if not, they're stacking the deck against themselves.

I think Kansas City might turn out to be sneaky good, certainly over a bad Bills team.  We won't get into the offensive train-wrecks that Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia appear to be.  I sort of like the odds of Indianapolis over Minnesota, but I'll give the nod to the team with the second-year QB and all-star RB.  I think Tampa might be better than we all expect, and wouldn't be surprised if they shock the Giants; but like the Packers, the Giants must feel some urgency to not open up the season 0-2.  The Saints will probably take out their opening loss frustrations on a lackluster-looking Panthers team, while Houston should roll a Jaguars team that barely kept up with a less-than-stellar Vikings team last week.

I'm tempted to take St. Louis over Washington, also.  The RG3-led Redskins impressed, and will probably continue to for awhile (see Carolina and Cam Newton last year), but St. Louis did look stout against Detroit last week - and Matt Stafford is more polished than RG3, for now.  Still, I'll take the lack of film on this new Redskins attack as the advantage the Redskins use to win.  I could see Seattle beating Dallas, also, especially at home - the Seahawks might have beaten Arizona if not for some poor pass-catching.  But I like Dallas this year, so I expect them to carry their momentum to 2-0 here.  The Jets' offensive explosion against Buffalo is a mirage to me until they do it against a respectable team... and look, here comes Pittsburgh.  San Diego might not have beat Oakland if not for an injury to the Raiders' long-snapper... but I'll take them over Tennessee.

I want to think Detroit can beat San Francisco on Sunday Night, and they probably can - but that 49ers' team looks stacked this year, and if the Lions can't field their first-stringers in the secondary, well, I expect them to get carved up.  Whoever comes out with the win on Sunday Night will have lofty expectations going forward.

And as for Monday... Peyton's Broncos looked pretty decent against Pittsburgh, but I think they run into a wall against the Falcons, who looked like the best team in the league on Week 1.  These Falcons?  Not a mirage.  They'll roll.

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 1

I'm back! 

Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95. 

I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am.  I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see.  But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.

Winners are in gold.

This week:

Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)

Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)

Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)

Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)

It's week one.  Week one is the hardest to predict.  There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot.  Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.

First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay.  We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago.  As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all.  I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick.  Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise.  Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many.  I also like Oakland over San Diego.  I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball.  If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.

The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season.  Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good.  I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot.  I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck.  I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots.  Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like.  I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz.  But that's just my thought.

I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game.  At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.