Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 3

Ouch.  7-9 last week.  Which only proves what we already knew - what we see in Week 1 isn't always the truth.

Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.

Winners in gold.

Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)

Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)

Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)

Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)

Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)

In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report.  Who do they plan to suit up?  Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here.  I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.

Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game.  If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.

I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here.  Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.

I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument).  But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week.  I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close.  But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.

Tennessee just doesn't look good.  Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town.  This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.

Jacksonville?  They don't look good this year.  Indianapolis?  They look sneaky good.  Andrew Luck's the real deal.  Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.

I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either.  The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen.  We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.

San Francisco is the best team in the NFL.  End of story.  The Vikings?  They're sneaky good.  Seriously.  But it won't look like it this week.

New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team.  They have to win it.  Right?  Right?  Have to.  More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win.  If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.

I don't believe in Cincinnati.  I do believe in RG3.  Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.

I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check.  Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.

San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams.  Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL.  Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.

Houston?  Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl).  Denver?  One of the most overrated teams in the league.  Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.

We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland.  Pittsburgh rolls here.

Baltimore's better.  End of story.  I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably.  Baltimore is young and on the rise.  Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.

Green Bay.  Seattle.  In Seattle.  Really tough call.  Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense.  Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson.  Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either.  I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more.  But right now, this early?  I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm.  However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.

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