I'm deviating from my normal format today and offering more discussion and prose than that backed by and supplemented with prediction. It's been a busy, intense weekend in sports and it's worth discussing.
Al Davis.
I'm just a random guy, a football fan blogging when he has time. I didn't know Al Davis. I don't have stories about him. I never played for, or was a fan of, the Raiders. But I do know what Al Davis was to the game. I know the history. We've all had our fun at Al Davis's expense over the last decade. He's gotten older. He's spewed vitriol publicly at former employees like Lane Kiffin. I've described things or events as "Al Davis crazy" in the past years. I've joked about how once Al Davis is gone, that'd leave Jerry Jones as the resident "borderline-senile, overly-enthusiastic, crazy old owner guy" in the NFL. Al is gone now. I think I joked because I never thought the day would come.
Jerry Jones, for all his bluster and gusto, will never measure up to Al Davis. No one will. You've heard plenty about how Al Davis was one-of-a-kind. It's not rhetoric. He was. He climbed the ladder of football, he was a coach and a commissioner, an owner and a scout. He presided over the AFL and, without him, mark my words, the NFL as we know it never happens. It was Davis who aggressively lured NFL players to AFL teams, narrowing the gap between the competing leagues and ultimately forcing the merger. But we remember Davis for not only being a driving force in that event, but for being the dissenting vote, for telling the NFL to stick it and that he'd be content turning the AFL into a superior product and grinding the NFL to dust. Al Davis had balls. He did things his way. He was the maverick of the NFL, the aged rebel, still the league's bad-boy owner to his last day. He was the Raiders. There'll never be another Al Davis. He was the last vestige of the previous era and now he's gone.
Those Eagles...
I saw this coming in Week 3. I'll be honest. I didn't say anything, but maybe I should have. I wasn't ready to blog opinions yet. But when Vick went off in his postgame presser about the refs treating him unfairly, I knew the ship was sinking. When he came out the next week after losing and gave short, nasty answers to a reporter asking a completely fair question, I knew we were sinking even faster. And now the ship is... well, some sportswriter said it was on fire and crashing into the iceberg and I think that's pretty apt. Will they recover? I say no way.
Tebow Time!
Tebow is the starter in Denver now and, quite frankly, it's the right move. Will it result in more wins? Probably not. Maybe one or two early on, but in the long run, I doubt it. Here's a prediction - Tebow looks good for two or three weeks. Maybe even great. Just like Vick in his return last season, before teams get tape on him, Tebow will make plays and maybe get some wins. But once teams have tape, expect his performance to decline. He doesn't have a complete set of tools, but he does have a lot of potential - and given how bad the Broncos are, it really is in the best interests of the team to play Tebow and see what happens. He gets an opportunity to show his stuff and prove himself to John Fox and John Elway. If he's good, he stays. If not, they move him in the offseason and push forward. It's a logical move for a bad team and I give them credit for giving up on the season this early to explore their options for next year. It's bad for short-term wins, but that's a strategy that can pay off long-term.
The ALCS.
In short, the Tigers bats are slumping when they're playing the best bullpen in baseball. Let's be honest - the Tigers can't matchup against the Rangers bullpen, not with all the injuries now. And worse yet is a stat that was said on ESPN today - Cabrera and V-Mart are 1-for-9 in the ALCS, and the Tigers have left 22 men on base. These stats mean two things to me. First, the Tigers are getting opportunities but not cashing in. This is the kind of thing that can turn fast - if they start cashing in, the Tigers roar. But this was a theme against the Yankees too - how many games did they leave runners on base in the first three innings and end up behind later as a result? It's more important against Texas - against that bullpen, if they don't make the starting pitching pay, odds are on Texas later. Game 2 was a perfect example - once Valverde/Coke/Benoit were done, we're going to Ryan Perry to hold Texas in extra innings. If you give me a Mike Adams vs. Ryan Perry inning, I take Adams every time.
Three things have to happen for the Tigers to win the ALCS now: first, Cabrera and V-Mart have to get hitting. If those guys are cold, we're done. Simple as that. Secondly, they need to cash in at least some of the time when runners are on base. In truth, those two problems are the same problem - if the first is solved, it takes care of the second, and if the second is solved, odds are the first is how it got solved. Third, the Tigers have to win every game at home. If they drop any of Games 3-5, they lose in Texas in Game 6. End of series. No kidding.
Starting pitching has been pretty good, all things considered, as good as you can ask against a team like Texas. The good relievers - Coke/Benoit/Valverde - have been solid, too. The bats just need to answer the bell.
Showing posts with label mlb playoffs 2011. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mlb playoffs 2011. Show all posts
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Friday, October 7, 2011
MLB 2011 - Tigers ALCS Preview
So we're here. I predicted, during spring training, that the Tigers would win the AL Central. This was, at the time, laughable to my many friends who are Twins fans. Well, who's laughing now? I always tease them back - hey, we might not make the playoffs every year, but at least when we do, we beat the Yankees. And here we are.
A lot of people panicked after Game 4, and writing this after Game 5 is over is well, obviously you'll take what I say with a grain of salt. I should have been more prudent. But I'm also the kind of hometown fan who likes to ignore the pressure situation until it happens. Don't think about. Don't talk about it. Don't predict anything. Wear the right underwear, wear the lucky shirt. I'm probably more superstitious about baseball than any other sport, if only because the deciding factor can hang on a single pitch. During Game 5, in the 8th and 9th as the Tigers had a 1-run lead, I'm sitting there sweating because you know that the tying run is always at the plate with the Yankees - anyone can blast it out of the park there. So you're just hoping a base-runner doesn't get on, because that can be the end of that.
The Tigers have a Jekyll-and-Hyde bullpen. They have some studs. Benoit. Valverde. I trust these guys. I trust Benoit to be solid and I trust Valverde to almost always give me a heart attack, but somehow come through in the end. I trust Phil Coke to provide 7th inning relief or help out on lefties. I trust Al Alburquerque in the way you can trust a rookie who gets a lot of strikeouts. After that, I don't trust anyone. That's why I didn't take the score of Game 4 to heart. See:
The Tigers were down 4-1 with the bases loaded when Leyland called in Al-Al. No outs. This is a logical move - Al-Al is our best strikeout reliever and if anyone is going to get out of a jam like that, it's him. This was Leyland's turning point. If Al-Al gets out of the jam, the game comes out differently. Not saying the Tigers win, mind you, but it'd look different. Instead, Al-Al gives up two hits on a balk and a single. Al-Al, for all I like him, looks very overwhelmed in the playoffs so far, but maybe that's because Leyland keeps throwing him into the highest of high pressure situations. Anyway. The score is 6-1 and Leyland trots out Daniel Schlereth.
I like Daniel Schlereth. Dude has a good beard. His dad gives decent analysis on ESPN. Good for him. But Schlereth hasn't ever really proven anything to the Tigers yet and, as a result, Leyland always puts him out there when the game is already over. If we're behind, I consider Schlereth to be the white flag of "okay, we're done." And as such, more runs are given up. Schlereth is out, then Ryan Perry. None of our really trusted guys come out. In fact, Game 4's pitching lineup other than Coke was mostly a batch of "adequate" guys - not playoff guys. Leyland had a plan. He wanted Fister and Scherzer, Benoit and Valverde ready for Game 5. That 10-1 wasn't indicative of how the Tigers would play, who they would trot out, the next day. And indeed, Game 5's lineup held the Yankees to 2 runs. That's because two starters went 6 innings (and change) and handed the ball to Benoit and Valverde.
And how about Benoit in the 7th? As I watched that, and saw only Valverde warming up, I knew we would win or lose by Benoit and how he pitched out of that bases loaded jam. He walked in a run, but never lost his composure, although he seemed genuinely irritated at the start by having to remove his band-aid. Seriously, Joe Girardi? That's a dick move. I'm glad you lost. It's a band-aid. Anyway, as I watched, holding my breath, I said to myself, "hey, this was our big-money acquisition this season. We brought him in precisely for this moment." And I knew we had to win or lose by him, because he was the best we had. If he blew it, we're beaten. No losing the game or any sour grapes, just straight up - their guy was better than our guy. Honorable defeat, so to speak. But Benoit lived up to his payday and made it happen. It was easier to cope with when I sat back and said "I trust my front office."
The Tigers will surely have Verlander ready for Game 1, which hopefully will not be rain-delayed again. I'm interested to see if Fister or Scherzer pitch Game 2, or if they bring out Porcello again. I thought Porcello was sufficient in Game 4 of the ALDS and, if Verlander wins Game 1 (is that really a question?), it'd be a safe play to bring in Porcello and then have Fister and Scherzer ready to go for Games 3/4. Assuming those split (and they could both be wins), Verlander comes in again in Game 5 to either win the series or put the Tigers in the lead to eliminate. The pitching matchups favor the Tigers, I think, but their bats need to wake up. Alex Avila has been an MVP for the Tigers - seriously - and needs to get his bat back after an awful ALDS. With Delmon Young possibly out for some time with an oblique injury, an Avila resurgence would make up the difference.
Really, though? I think the Tigers cut through Texas pretty evenly. They take it in six - splitting the first two in Texas, then the first two in Detroit, before winning Games 5 and 6 to end it.
A lot of people panicked after Game 4, and writing this after Game 5 is over is well, obviously you'll take what I say with a grain of salt. I should have been more prudent. But I'm also the kind of hometown fan who likes to ignore the pressure situation until it happens. Don't think about. Don't talk about it. Don't predict anything. Wear the right underwear, wear the lucky shirt. I'm probably more superstitious about baseball than any other sport, if only because the deciding factor can hang on a single pitch. During Game 5, in the 8th and 9th as the Tigers had a 1-run lead, I'm sitting there sweating because you know that the tying run is always at the plate with the Yankees - anyone can blast it out of the park there. So you're just hoping a base-runner doesn't get on, because that can be the end of that.
The Tigers have a Jekyll-and-Hyde bullpen. They have some studs. Benoit. Valverde. I trust these guys. I trust Benoit to be solid and I trust Valverde to almost always give me a heart attack, but somehow come through in the end. I trust Phil Coke to provide 7th inning relief or help out on lefties. I trust Al Alburquerque in the way you can trust a rookie who gets a lot of strikeouts. After that, I don't trust anyone. That's why I didn't take the score of Game 4 to heart. See:
The Tigers were down 4-1 with the bases loaded when Leyland called in Al-Al. No outs. This is a logical move - Al-Al is our best strikeout reliever and if anyone is going to get out of a jam like that, it's him. This was Leyland's turning point. If Al-Al gets out of the jam, the game comes out differently. Not saying the Tigers win, mind you, but it'd look different. Instead, Al-Al gives up two hits on a balk and a single. Al-Al, for all I like him, looks very overwhelmed in the playoffs so far, but maybe that's because Leyland keeps throwing him into the highest of high pressure situations. Anyway. The score is 6-1 and Leyland trots out Daniel Schlereth.
I like Daniel Schlereth. Dude has a good beard. His dad gives decent analysis on ESPN. Good for him. But Schlereth hasn't ever really proven anything to the Tigers yet and, as a result, Leyland always puts him out there when the game is already over. If we're behind, I consider Schlereth to be the white flag of "okay, we're done." And as such, more runs are given up. Schlereth is out, then Ryan Perry. None of our really trusted guys come out. In fact, Game 4's pitching lineup other than Coke was mostly a batch of "adequate" guys - not playoff guys. Leyland had a plan. He wanted Fister and Scherzer, Benoit and Valverde ready for Game 5. That 10-1 wasn't indicative of how the Tigers would play, who they would trot out, the next day. And indeed, Game 5's lineup held the Yankees to 2 runs. That's because two starters went 6 innings (and change) and handed the ball to Benoit and Valverde.
And how about Benoit in the 7th? As I watched that, and saw only Valverde warming up, I knew we would win or lose by Benoit and how he pitched out of that bases loaded jam. He walked in a run, but never lost his composure, although he seemed genuinely irritated at the start by having to remove his band-aid. Seriously, Joe Girardi? That's a dick move. I'm glad you lost. It's a band-aid. Anyway, as I watched, holding my breath, I said to myself, "hey, this was our big-money acquisition this season. We brought him in precisely for this moment." And I knew we had to win or lose by him, because he was the best we had. If he blew it, we're beaten. No losing the game or any sour grapes, just straight up - their guy was better than our guy. Honorable defeat, so to speak. But Benoit lived up to his payday and made it happen. It was easier to cope with when I sat back and said "I trust my front office."
The Tigers will surely have Verlander ready for Game 1, which hopefully will not be rain-delayed again. I'm interested to see if Fister or Scherzer pitch Game 2, or if they bring out Porcello again. I thought Porcello was sufficient in Game 4 of the ALDS and, if Verlander wins Game 1 (is that really a question?), it'd be a safe play to bring in Porcello and then have Fister and Scherzer ready to go for Games 3/4. Assuming those split (and they could both be wins), Verlander comes in again in Game 5 to either win the series or put the Tigers in the lead to eliminate. The pitching matchups favor the Tigers, I think, but their bats need to wake up. Alex Avila has been an MVP for the Tigers - seriously - and needs to get his bat back after an awful ALDS. With Delmon Young possibly out for some time with an oblique injury, an Avila resurgence would make up the difference.
Really, though? I think the Tigers cut through Texas pretty evenly. They take it in six - splitting the first two in Texas, then the first two in Detroit, before winning Games 5 and 6 to end it.
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