7-9 again. Sheesh. Too much focus on baseball and hockey this past year, it would seem, has made me forget just how much can change in one football season. This is a much more fluid sport we're talking about here, where one year can result in huge changes.
Here we go for week 4. Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (0-3) @ Baltimore (2-1)
Sunday Early -
Carolina (1-2) @ Atlanta (3-0)
New England (1-2) @ Buffalo (2-1)
Minnesota (2-1) @ Detroit (1-2)
San Diego (2-1) @ Kansas City (1-2)
Seattle (2-1) @ St. Louis (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ NY Jets (2-1)
Tennessee (1-2) @ Houston (3-0)
Sunday Late -
Oakland (1-2) @ Denver (1-2)
Miami (1-2) @ Arizona (4-0)
Cincinnati (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
New Orleans (0-3) @ Green Bay (1-2)
Washington (1-2) @ Tampa Bay (1-2)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia (2-1)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-1) @ Dallas (2-1)
Baltimore and Cleveland is a pretty self-explanatory one, don't you think? Baltimore might just be the best team in the AFC, although Houston might have something to say about that.
Speaking of best teams in a conference, Atlanta looks primed this year, while Carolina looks like an entire team experiencing a sophomore slump. New England will likely destroy Buffalo after feeling robbed against Baltimore; but boy, wouldn't this game make an epic upset? Something about the Patriots seems off, but I expect them to do their thing here. As a Lions fan, I'm terrified of the Vikings game coming up - it's basically a must-win for the Lions, with their bye week afterwards. The Vikings, however, look like the most complete and fundamentally sound team in the NFC North. If this were in Minnesota, I'd take the Vikes, but I feel like a home game that's a must-win... gotta be the Lions, right? I still don't like San Diego, but I do like Kansas City. No reasoning here, really, but if Jamaal Charles has gotten going... well, yeah. I like Seattle a lot, also, against a somewhat sound, but still mediocre Rams squad. Likewise, San Francisco should reassert themselves after a shocking loss last week when they play the haphazard Jets this week. Houston should keep pace as one of the top-2 teams in the AFC, also, when they roll the Titans up.
I'm still not sure how Oakland beat Pittsburgh, but I'll take Denver here. It's at home, and Denver needs a win. If it were in Oakland, hm. But in Denver... well, at least for this week, I'll take Peyton in Denver over McFadden; but Oakland reads a lot like Kansas City - if McFadden is rolling, they can win. I love Arizona's defense and expect them to trounce Miami based on that alone. Cincinnati is a better team than Jacksonville; this game has potential for upset if MJD gets going, but I'll take the more complete team. New Orleans and Green Bay are playing in the Crushed Expectations Bowl this weekend, and both teams desperately need the win. I'll take the home team. Whoever loses can basically write off this season. I like Tampa against Washington also; RG3 is solid, but needs time yet, and that Tampa defense just looks might respectable.
Philly looks like a disaster to me. How do they have two wins? Giants on Sunday Night.
Same for Chicago, really. They snuck by the Rams last week, but I just don't buy that team at all. I think Dallas does a number on them.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 3
Ouch. 7-9 last week. Which only proves what we already knew - what we see in Week 1 isn't always the truth.
Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)
Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)
Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)
Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)
In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report. Who do they plan to suit up? Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here. I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.
Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game. If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.
I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here. Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.
I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument). But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week. I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close. But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.
Tennessee just doesn't look good. Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town. This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.
Jacksonville? They don't look good this year. Indianapolis? They look sneaky good. Andrew Luck's the real deal. Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.
I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either. The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen. We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.
San Francisco is the best team in the NFL. End of story. The Vikings? They're sneaky good. Seriously. But it won't look like it this week.
New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team. They have to win it. Right? Right? Have to. More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win. If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.
I don't believe in Cincinnati. I do believe in RG3. Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.
I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check. Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.
San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams. Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL. Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.
Houston? Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl). Denver? One of the most overrated teams in the league. Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.
We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland. Pittsburgh rolls here.
Baltimore's better. End of story. I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably. Baltimore is young and on the rise. Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.
Green Bay. Seattle. In Seattle. Really tough call. Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense. Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson. Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either. I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more. But right now, this early? I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm. However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.
Atlanta and San Francisco, however, are the best teams in the league.
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
NY Giants (1-1) @ Carolina (1-1)
Early Sunday -
St. Louis (1-1) @ Chicago (1-1)
Buffalo (1-1) @ Cleveland (0-2)
Tampa Bay (1-1) @ Dallas (1-1)
Detroit (1-1) @ Tennessee (0-2)
Jacksonville (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
NY Jets (1-1) @ Miami (1-1)
San Francisco (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Kansas City (0-2) @ New Orleans (0-2)
Cincinnati (1-1) @ Washington (1-1)
Late Sunday -
Philadelphia (2-0) @ Arizona (2-0)
Atlanta (2-0) @ San Diego (2-0)
Houston (2-0) @ Denver (1-1)
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Oakland (0-2)
Sunday Night -
New England (1-1) @ Baltimore (1-1)
Monday Night -
Green Bay (1-1) @ Seattle (1-1)
In theory, I'd think the Giants beat the Panthers - but look at their injury report. Who do they plan to suit up? Bad week for them to have a Thursday game; I'll take a spunky and healthy Panthers team here. I think both are legitimately good teams, but it's just impossible to know who Eli Manning intends to give the ball to at this point.
Chicago basically has to beat St. Louis; it's a classic lick-your-wounds game. If they hadn't been embarrassed by Green Bay last week, I'd say that St. Louis could play spoiler here, but no way that happens, as it could really bring some storm clouds on Chicago's season.
I don't think either Buffalo or Cleveland are very good, but I'll take the more experienced bad team here. Seems to me that it's going to be a very long year for Brandon Weeden; while this is one of his better chances for an early win, I just don't see it.
I really like Tampa this year, Greg Schiano's questionable late-game tactics aside (that's a whole other argument). But Dallas needs this game after being shocked by Seattle last week. I think both of these are good teams this year; this should be a good game, and close. But Dallas needs it more, and they ought to be aware of that.
Tennessee just doesn't look good. Their offensive line seems to be in a state of flux and/or misery, which is a bad reality to face up to when the Lions' defensive line comes to town. This game seems like just what the Lions need after a rough outing in San Francisco.
Jacksonville? They don't look good this year. Indianapolis? They look sneaky good. Andrew Luck's the real deal. Expect momentum from a clutch victory against Minnesota to carry over.
I hate that I'm taking the Dolphins here, as I'm not sure I really believe in them, but I don't believe in the Jets, either. The Dolphins just look like a team that could be sneaky good in a division that's a lot weaker than people think with the Patriots looking old and injured, and the Jets looking like a train-wreck waiting to happen. We'll learn a lot about both teams this week.
San Francisco is the best team in the NFL. End of story. The Vikings? They're sneaky good. Seriously. But it won't look like it this week.
New Orleans is 0-2 with a home game against an 0-2 Chiefs team. They have to win it. Right? Right? Have to. More than any other team this week, New Orleans has to win. If they were in Kansas City, I very well might take a Chiefs team that looks sneaky good to me.
I don't believe in Cincinnati. I do believe in RG3. Tough loss last week; the Redskins bounce back this week.
I think Philadelphia is the biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams; I expect a better Arizona team (particularly their defense) to keep the Eagles in check. Good chance here of a let-down loss after a big win against New England, but Arizona's defense has been pretty good since the middle of last season, so I like them against a team that's turning it over too much.
San Diego is the second-biggest mirage of the 2-0 teams. Atlanta, however, is the second-best team in the NFL. Of course, you might want to consider Matt Ryan's record outside of domes... but I still think Atlanta is the better team here.
Houston? Still as good as last year (take away that injury to Schaub last year and they win the Super Bowl). Denver? One of the most overrated teams in the league. Not a bad team; just not as good as Houston.
We won't even get into the mess that continues to be Oakland. Pittsburgh rolls here.
Baltimore's better. End of story. I still think the Patriots are good, but like the Steelers, aging and declining predictably. Baltimore is young and on the rise. Statement win for the Ravens on national television after a really tough loss last week.
Green Bay. Seattle. In Seattle. Really tough call. Seattle, like Arizona, is sneaky good on defense. Their offense needs some work, but I like Russell Wilson. Green Bay is still not quite as good as we think they are, either. I think Seattle wins this game if it happens later in the year, after Wilson has matured more. But right now, this early? I'll take the experience of the Packers team - even if they've been off from their norm. However, this will be a lot closer and lower-scoring than most people will expect.
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 2
Week 1 saw me go 10-6; not bad to start the season.
Are Atlanta and San Francisco really the best teams in the league? What about the swoons of the Saints and Packers? See below...
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Chicago (1-0) @ Green Bay (0-1)
Early Sunday -
Kansas City (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Cincinnati (0-1)
Minnesota (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Oakland (0-1) @ Miami (0-1)
Arizona (1-0) @ New England (1-0)
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ NY Giants (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1) @ Carolina (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
Late Sunday -
Washington (1-0) @ St. Louis (0-1)
Dallas (1-0) @ Seattle (0-1)
NY Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1) @ San Diego (1-0)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (1-0) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Monday Night -
Denver (1-0) @ Atlanta (1-0)
I actually like Chicago over Green Bay... I think the Packers are due for a swoon, from a great team to a good one; however, I think they realize that they have to win this Thursday. Opening the season 0-2, both losses at home? The Pack must be feeling some urgency. If they win this, they can settle down; if not, they're stacking the deck against themselves.
I think Kansas City might turn out to be sneaky good, certainly over a bad Bills team. We won't get into the offensive train-wrecks that Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia appear to be. I sort of like the odds of Indianapolis over Minnesota, but I'll give the nod to the team with the second-year QB and all-star RB. I think Tampa might be better than we all expect, and wouldn't be surprised if they shock the Giants; but like the Packers, the Giants must feel some urgency to not open up the season 0-2. The Saints will probably take out their opening loss frustrations on a lackluster-looking Panthers team, while Houston should roll a Jaguars team that barely kept up with a less-than-stellar Vikings team last week.
I'm tempted to take St. Louis over Washington, also. The RG3-led Redskins impressed, and will probably continue to for awhile (see Carolina and Cam Newton last year), but St. Louis did look stout against Detroit last week - and Matt Stafford is more polished than RG3, for now. Still, I'll take the lack of film on this new Redskins attack as the advantage the Redskins use to win. I could see Seattle beating Dallas, also, especially at home - the Seahawks might have beaten Arizona if not for some poor pass-catching. But I like Dallas this year, so I expect them to carry their momentum to 2-0 here. The Jets' offensive explosion against Buffalo is a mirage to me until they do it against a respectable team... and look, here comes Pittsburgh. San Diego might not have beat Oakland if not for an injury to the Raiders' long-snapper... but I'll take them over Tennessee.
I want to think Detroit can beat San Francisco on Sunday Night, and they probably can - but that 49ers' team looks stacked this year, and if the Lions can't field their first-stringers in the secondary, well, I expect them to get carved up. Whoever comes out with the win on Sunday Night will have lofty expectations going forward.
And as for Monday... Peyton's Broncos looked pretty decent against Pittsburgh, but I think they run into a wall against the Falcons, who looked like the best team in the league on Week 1. These Falcons? Not a mirage. They'll roll.
Are Atlanta and San Francisco really the best teams in the league? What about the swoons of the Saints and Packers? See below...
Winners in gold.
Thursday Night -
Chicago (1-0) @ Green Bay (0-1)
Early Sunday -
Kansas City (0-1) @ Buffalo (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Cincinnati (0-1)
Minnesota (1-0) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Oakland (0-1) @ Miami (0-1)
Arizona (1-0) @ New England (1-0)
Tampa Bay (1-0) @ NY Giants (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Philadelphia (1-0)
New Orleans (0-1) @ Carolina (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Jacksonville (0-1)
Late Sunday -
Washington (1-0) @ St. Louis (0-1)
Dallas (1-0) @ Seattle (0-1)
NY Jets (1-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)
Tennessee (0-1) @ San Diego (1-0)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (1-0) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Monday Night -
Denver (1-0) @ Atlanta (1-0)
I actually like Chicago over Green Bay... I think the Packers are due for a swoon, from a great team to a good one; however, I think they realize that they have to win this Thursday. Opening the season 0-2, both losses at home? The Pack must be feeling some urgency. If they win this, they can settle down; if not, they're stacking the deck against themselves.
I think Kansas City might turn out to be sneaky good, certainly over a bad Bills team. We won't get into the offensive train-wrecks that Cleveland, Miami, and Philadelphia appear to be. I sort of like the odds of Indianapolis over Minnesota, but I'll give the nod to the team with the second-year QB and all-star RB. I think Tampa might be better than we all expect, and wouldn't be surprised if they shock the Giants; but like the Packers, the Giants must feel some urgency to not open up the season 0-2. The Saints will probably take out their opening loss frustrations on a lackluster-looking Panthers team, while Houston should roll a Jaguars team that barely kept up with a less-than-stellar Vikings team last week.
I'm tempted to take St. Louis over Washington, also. The RG3-led Redskins impressed, and will probably continue to for awhile (see Carolina and Cam Newton last year), but St. Louis did look stout against Detroit last week - and Matt Stafford is more polished than RG3, for now. Still, I'll take the lack of film on this new Redskins attack as the advantage the Redskins use to win. I could see Seattle beating Dallas, also, especially at home - the Seahawks might have beaten Arizona if not for some poor pass-catching. But I like Dallas this year, so I expect them to carry their momentum to 2-0 here. The Jets' offensive explosion against Buffalo is a mirage to me until they do it against a respectable team... and look, here comes Pittsburgh. San Diego might not have beat Oakland if not for an injury to the Raiders' long-snapper... but I'll take them over Tennessee.
I want to think Detroit can beat San Francisco on Sunday Night, and they probably can - but that 49ers' team looks stacked this year, and if the Lions can't field their first-stringers in the secondary, well, I expect them to get carved up. Whoever comes out with the win on Sunday Night will have lofty expectations going forward.
And as for Monday... Peyton's Broncos looked pretty decent against Pittsburgh, but I think they run into a wall against the Falcons, who looked like the best team in the league on Week 1. These Falcons? Not a mirage. They'll roll.
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Pierce's Picks 2012 - NFL Week 1
I'm back!
Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95.
I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am. I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see. But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.
Winners are in gold.
This week:
Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)
Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)
Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)
It's week one. Week one is the hardest to predict. There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot. Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.
First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay. We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago. As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all. I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick. Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise. Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many. I also like Oakland over San Diego. I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball. If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.
The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season. Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good. I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot. I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck. I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots. Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like. I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz. But that's just my thought.
I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game. At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.
Last season saw me go 159-97, two games worse than the year before, when I finished 161-95.
I'll admit, I haven't been as excited for the season as I usually am. I've been hooked on baseball this year, and the whole replacement ref debacle has me a little concerned about the quality of football we'll see. But as the first night of real football is upon us... well, let's just say, I'm ready to go.
Winners are in gold.
This week:
Wednesday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Giants (0-0)
Early Sunday -
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
St. Louis (0-0) @ Detroit (0-0)
New England (0-0) @ Tennessee (0-0)
Atlanta (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Jacksonville (0-0) @ Minnesota (0-0)
Washington (0-0) @ New Orleans (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)
Miami (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Late Sunday -
San Francisco (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)
Monday Night -
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)
San Diego (0-0) @ Oakland (0-0)
It's week one. Week one is the hardest to predict. There's more we don't know than what we do, and most of what we do know is based on expectations created a year ago by rosters that might have changed a lot. Week one is always rife for upsets, as a result, and there are several tasty ones possible.
First up, I love the chances of Indianapolis over Chicago or San Francisco over Green Bay. We don't know what the real Indy offense will look like yet, and I just never really buy into Chicago. As for San Fran, same deal - who knows what they'll be up to with all those WRs this year; I saw it pointed out that Green Bay's weak secondary is still weak, after all. I like Tampa over Carolina; that's my big upset pick. Everyone's really feel-good about Carolina, but Cam Newton tailed off last season in the second half; I think a new-look offense in Tampa might take them by surprise. Remember that this was a 10-win team in 2010, and their failings last year were a surprise to many. I also like Oakland over San Diego. I have no strong reasoning for that other than wondering who Philip Rivers is going to throw to and who's going to be running the ball. If nothing else, Oakland can just shove Darren McFadden down your throat.
The Giants/Cowboys game should be a great start to the season. Those are good games usually, and I think both teams will be good. I'm tempted to take the Cowboys, but I like the Giants starting off their championship defense on the right foot. I'm likewise tempted to take the Jets over Buffalo, but let's face it, NYJ might win some games, but that team looks like a train-wreck. I don't love Denver over Pittsburgh, either, but Pittsburgh will be playing without Ryan Clark, and their secondary still isn't going to make anyone shake in their boots. Beyond that, same logic as some above - no one really knows what the Peyton-led Broncos will look like. I expect Pittsburgh to come after him and get burned on the blitz. But that's just my thought.
I'll be stuck watching the Jaguars and Vikings for the early Sunday game. At least the other games I'll end up with (SF/GB and the national games) look pretty solid this week.
Friday, April 27, 2012
The Eastern Conference Semifinals
Three Game 7s! Excellent! Surprising ones, too. But the East has wrapped up and the semifinals start tonight with the first Phoenix/Nashville game, and start in earnest tomorrow with two games (Wash/NY and STL/LA).
I went 3-1 in my Eastern picks, only whiffing on Boston, but every series went much longer than I expected, other than the unceremonious ousting of the Penguins by the Flyers. The East turned out to be much tougher than I expected, top-to-bottom.
Eastern Conference Semifinals -
New York (1-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
This is the series I'm really for this round. While I like the potential between St. Louis and Los Angeles for a defensive struggle, this is a series that's packed across the ice - great goaltending, solid defense, potentially explosive offense. The Rangers kept their poise after Ottawa took them to the brink; Washington did the same against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Without the pressure of a high seed or a wildly successful regular season, is this the year for the Caps? They seem to have a certain swagger, but it's hard to trust their playoff legs. Washington is a sexy pick here, and for good reason, but New York's stability is hard to question. Holtby's a great story but can he keep it going? I expect this series to be close and to go the distance. The difference between going home and advancing might be one bad bounce.
New York in 7.
Philadelphia (5-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
I expected both teams to win and be here; I didn't expect the Devils to take so long to do it. The Flyers are rested and coming off an emotional series domination of their in-state rival. They're physical, riding high, and forcing teams to play their way. The Devils left Florida push them to the brink. I don't think the Flyers will be so kind. Bryzgalov barely outplayed Fleury in Pittsburgh, though; he has to be better to beat Brodeur.
Philadelphia in 6.
The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Boston (2-seed)
This just had the feeling of a tumultuous, unfulfilling season for Boston, ever since that Tim Thomas/White House stuff got built up. There's no run here, but Boston's core should remain. The real question going forward will be to stick with Thomas or not, since he's been painted as a somewhat divisive figure on the team. The Bruins don't have a lot of cap room, but they also don't have a lot of expiring contracts, with Rolston being the biggest one that stands out. No reason to worry too much here.
Florida (3-seed)
I don't see how this season can't be considered a huge success. In Dave Tallon's first year as GM, he took an annual bottom-feeder and won the division. They've got a handful of expiring contracts, but plenty of cap space to throw around. This team can continue to build and should, in theory, build on their success, also. Their biggest problem will be finding reasons to avoid relocation.
Pittsburgh (4-seed)
On the flip-side from Florida, Penguins fans can't consider this season anything other than a raging disappointment. After a slow start early, the Pens fired up and Malkin carried them to a strong 4-seed finish. Crosby returned, galvanizing hype and making them the top pick for the Cup. So much for that. Out-muscled, out-hustled, and out-played by the Flyers, they looked ill-prepared and weak in one of the ugliest playoff series I've seen in awhile. They suddenly have a huge problem in goal, where Marc-Andre Fleury spent the playoffs doing his best impression of Swiss cheese. However, the Pens' core players are locked up for next year, so there's no reason to believe they won't compete at a high level again. But this postseason was particularly crushing to them, and we'll have to see how it affects their psyche when the puck drops again in October.
Ottawa (8-seed)
After being absent from the playoffs for some years, Ottawa returned this year to give the 1-seed Rangers a shocking run for their money. They're comfortable with the cap, and while they've got some expiring contracts, their core guys are set for next year. They're in a very similar position as Florida - good cap room, most contracts set, lots of room to maneuver for next year. Just a matter of how they spend what they've got and how the success of this season affects them going forward.
I went 3-1 in my Eastern picks, only whiffing on Boston, but every series went much longer than I expected, other than the unceremonious ousting of the Penguins by the Flyers. The East turned out to be much tougher than I expected, top-to-bottom.
Eastern Conference Semifinals -
New York (1-seed) vs. Washington (7-seed)
This is the series I'm really for this round. While I like the potential between St. Louis and Los Angeles for a defensive struggle, this is a series that's packed across the ice - great goaltending, solid defense, potentially explosive offense. The Rangers kept their poise after Ottawa took them to the brink; Washington did the same against the defending Stanley Cup champions. Without the pressure of a high seed or a wildly successful regular season, is this the year for the Caps? They seem to have a certain swagger, but it's hard to trust their playoff legs. Washington is a sexy pick here, and for good reason, but New York's stability is hard to question. Holtby's a great story but can he keep it going? I expect this series to be close and to go the distance. The difference between going home and advancing might be one bad bounce.
New York in 7.
Philadelphia (5-seed) vs. New Jersey (6-seed)
I expected both teams to win and be here; I didn't expect the Devils to take so long to do it. The Flyers are rested and coming off an emotional series domination of their in-state rival. They're physical, riding high, and forcing teams to play their way. The Devils left Florida push them to the brink. I don't think the Flyers will be so kind. Bryzgalov barely outplayed Fleury in Pittsburgh, though; he has to be better to beat Brodeur.
Philadelphia in 6.
The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Boston (2-seed)
This just had the feeling of a tumultuous, unfulfilling season for Boston, ever since that Tim Thomas/White House stuff got built up. There's no run here, but Boston's core should remain. The real question going forward will be to stick with Thomas or not, since he's been painted as a somewhat divisive figure on the team. The Bruins don't have a lot of cap room, but they also don't have a lot of expiring contracts, with Rolston being the biggest one that stands out. No reason to worry too much here.
Florida (3-seed)
I don't see how this season can't be considered a huge success. In Dave Tallon's first year as GM, he took an annual bottom-feeder and won the division. They've got a handful of expiring contracts, but plenty of cap space to throw around. This team can continue to build and should, in theory, build on their success, also. Their biggest problem will be finding reasons to avoid relocation.
Pittsburgh (4-seed)
On the flip-side from Florida, Penguins fans can't consider this season anything other than a raging disappointment. After a slow start early, the Pens fired up and Malkin carried them to a strong 4-seed finish. Crosby returned, galvanizing hype and making them the top pick for the Cup. So much for that. Out-muscled, out-hustled, and out-played by the Flyers, they looked ill-prepared and weak in one of the ugliest playoff series I've seen in awhile. They suddenly have a huge problem in goal, where Marc-Andre Fleury spent the playoffs doing his best impression of Swiss cheese. However, the Pens' core players are locked up for next year, so there's no reason to believe they won't compete at a high level again. But this postseason was particularly crushing to them, and we'll have to see how it affects their psyche when the puck drops again in October.
Ottawa (8-seed)
After being absent from the playoffs for some years, Ottawa returned this year to give the 1-seed Rangers a shocking run for their money. They're comfortable with the cap, and while they've got some expiring contracts, their core guys are set for next year. They're in a very similar position as Florida - good cap room, most contracts set, lots of room to maneuver for next year. Just a matter of how they spend what they've got and how the success of this season affects them going forward.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
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The Western Conference Semifinals
We'll have to wait a couple more days, at least, for the finish of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, but the West's picture is all set for the next round. I thought the teams in the West were a lot closer than the teams in the East, so this comes as a surprise for me. But then again, the playoff adage is coming to be truer and truer - just get in, as they say. That's what Ottawa's doing, for example. I'm going to look ahead to the two semifinal matchups and then take a minute to reflect on each losing team's future.
I went 1-3 in picking the Western Quarterfinals, with my lone correct pick (and it was correct down to number of games) being the Preds in 5 over my hometown Red Wings.
Western Conference Semifinals -
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
I might be looking forward to this series more than any other coming up, regardless of what happens in the East. Both play a stifling defensive game and both have hot goaltenders. Goals will be at a premium in this series, and it's hard not to imagine at least a couple overtime thrillers. I didn't pick either team to advance, expecting playoff inexperience to hamper St. Louis, and Los Angeles to be ousted by a heated-up Vancouver team. We saw how that went. Neither team is brimming with playoff experience, but that seems to be a running theme throughout this year. I still don't buy into St. Louis entirely as a playoff team, but that logic didn't get me far in the first round. Los Angeles, though, really impressed me with their put-down of the Canucks. I think this series can go either way, but Los Angeles won't be facing Roberto Luongo this time, and the Blues are healthier than the Canucks were. It's hard to see the Kings working the same magic on Halak and Elliot.
St. Louis in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Nashville (4-seed)
People are going to bill this as a huge goalie battle, and in truth, it is. But make no mistake - Mike Smith has been the hotter goaltender of the two, if only because Nashville's defense left nothing but scraps to the Red Wings. Rinne rarely had to make the kind of breathtaking stops that Mike Smith did in Game 6 against the Blackhawks. Someone can take that and say it means Smith is to be counted on more, but I see it as meaning that Nashville probably has the superior defense; Rinne will hold his own when he has to. Both teams have reasons to be hungry - Nashville's core could get split up this offseason, and Phoenix might see the departure of captain Shane Doan. As good a story as Phoenix's first playoff series win as a franchise post-Winnipeg is, I don't see it happening again. If Nashville can play Phoenix the way they played Detroit, it'll be another short series.
Nashville in 5.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Vancouver (1-seed)
Tough one, here. Vancouver was supposed to win; was poised to win. Had me convinced. But this postseason might become a blessing in disguise for a Canucks team that will be good again next year - they now know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they can't win with Roberto Luongo. The regular season maestro and playoff choker probably coughed up his last playoff loss in Vancouver, as the team should now realize that there's no way they can let Cory Schneider leave in free agency. In this goaltender-driven league (look around at the surviving playoff teams), someone will trade for Luongo, although Vancouver might have to give him up for pennies on the dollar.
Detroit (5-seed)
Another tough one. Detroit set a record with 23 straight home wins this season, but didn't carry that momentum into the playoffs. Detroit was the best team in February, but that rarely translates. Injuries bogged them down the stretch, and they faced a team built precisely to counter what they do. The Red Wings looked like a dinosaur on the ice, unable to adapt or offer an alternative game plan to the one Nashville was so methodically taking apart. They say the Red Wings are too old, but that discounts the maturing young guys like Helm, Abdelkader, and Miller, as well as rising young players like Nyquist, Mursak, and Brendan Smith. The Wings have some age, but they're well-balanced as always. Brad Stuart is gone, making room to acquire a top blue-liner and promote some from within. Lidstrom will stay or he won't; he looked old this postseason and if he does return, it would be reasonable to trim down his minutes in the regular season. But the Wings have more cap room than they've ever had in the post-lockout era, so there's no reason they can't return to prominence next year.
Chicago (6-seed)
Chicago flip-flopped all season long, going through periods of surges and droughts. At one point in December or January, they had lost 9 or 10 in a row and the talking heads were calling for Coach Q's head. It's hard to say what went wrong against Phoenix. Mike Smith decisively outplayed Corey Crawford, who was inconsistent all season long, and much can be hung there. But the Hawks didn't look themselves, either, perhaps victims of inconsistent penalty calls and suspensions. Andrew Shaw's 3-game suspension for (unintentionally, it seemed to me) running into Mike Smith was excessive and might have put the Hawks on their heels more than people realize. It was clear to me, though, that a great deal of spirit left the team when Marian Hossa got laid out. Hossa's a more integral part of that offense than people realize; a strong, quiet presence as important as Toews or Kane. His absence was palpable to me in Game 6. This is still a good team, but they're still recovering from all of the hemorrhaging they did after winning the Cup in 2010. Their defense lacks depth and Crawford might not be the guy. Similar futures await without some changes.
San Jose (7-seed)
Out of the two teams who got their seedings on the last day of the season, I expected San Jose's playoff experience to advance them over a much more raw Kings team. Yet, the Sharks got soundly ejected by the Blues, whereas the Kings delivered the stunner of the quarterfinals thusfar. I didn't see much of the Sharks series, I have to admit, but I expected more from them. But the Sharks had been playing playoff hockey for weeks and may very well have slowed down against a Blues team ready to pounce on any mistakes made. Obviously some work must be done for this team to be better, but I really don't see them being vastly inferior to Los Angeles, or having the problems Chicago does. They'll be back.
But on the plus side for all four of these teams? None of them are Pittsburgh. Who knew we'd be saying that after the first round of the playoffs? More on that when the Eastern Quarterfinals wrap up.
I went 1-3 in picking the Western Quarterfinals, with my lone correct pick (and it was correct down to number of games) being the Preds in 5 over my hometown Red Wings.
Western Conference Semifinals -
St. Louis (2-seed) vs. Los Angeles (8-seed)
I might be looking forward to this series more than any other coming up, regardless of what happens in the East. Both play a stifling defensive game and both have hot goaltenders. Goals will be at a premium in this series, and it's hard not to imagine at least a couple overtime thrillers. I didn't pick either team to advance, expecting playoff inexperience to hamper St. Louis, and Los Angeles to be ousted by a heated-up Vancouver team. We saw how that went. Neither team is brimming with playoff experience, but that seems to be a running theme throughout this year. I still don't buy into St. Louis entirely as a playoff team, but that logic didn't get me far in the first round. Los Angeles, though, really impressed me with their put-down of the Canucks. I think this series can go either way, but Los Angeles won't be facing Roberto Luongo this time, and the Blues are healthier than the Canucks were. It's hard to see the Kings working the same magic on Halak and Elliot.
St. Louis in 7.
Phoenix (3-seed) vs. Nashville (4-seed)
People are going to bill this as a huge goalie battle, and in truth, it is. But make no mistake - Mike Smith has been the hotter goaltender of the two, if only because Nashville's defense left nothing but scraps to the Red Wings. Rinne rarely had to make the kind of breathtaking stops that Mike Smith did in Game 6 against the Blackhawks. Someone can take that and say it means Smith is to be counted on more, but I see it as meaning that Nashville probably has the superior defense; Rinne will hold his own when he has to. Both teams have reasons to be hungry - Nashville's core could get split up this offseason, and Phoenix might see the departure of captain Shane Doan. As good a story as Phoenix's first playoff series win as a franchise post-Winnipeg is, I don't see it happening again. If Nashville can play Phoenix the way they played Detroit, it'll be another short series.
Nashville in 5.
The Western Conference Quarterfinals Curtain Call -
Vancouver (1-seed)
Tough one, here. Vancouver was supposed to win; was poised to win. Had me convinced. But this postseason might become a blessing in disguise for a Canucks team that will be good again next year - they now know, without a shadow of a doubt, that they can't win with Roberto Luongo. The regular season maestro and playoff choker probably coughed up his last playoff loss in Vancouver, as the team should now realize that there's no way they can let Cory Schneider leave in free agency. In this goaltender-driven league (look around at the surviving playoff teams), someone will trade for Luongo, although Vancouver might have to give him up for pennies on the dollar.
Detroit (5-seed)
Another tough one. Detroit set a record with 23 straight home wins this season, but didn't carry that momentum into the playoffs. Detroit was the best team in February, but that rarely translates. Injuries bogged them down the stretch, and they faced a team built precisely to counter what they do. The Red Wings looked like a dinosaur on the ice, unable to adapt or offer an alternative game plan to the one Nashville was so methodically taking apart. They say the Red Wings are too old, but that discounts the maturing young guys like Helm, Abdelkader, and Miller, as well as rising young players like Nyquist, Mursak, and Brendan Smith. The Wings have some age, but they're well-balanced as always. Brad Stuart is gone, making room to acquire a top blue-liner and promote some from within. Lidstrom will stay or he won't; he looked old this postseason and if he does return, it would be reasonable to trim down his minutes in the regular season. But the Wings have more cap room than they've ever had in the post-lockout era, so there's no reason they can't return to prominence next year.
Chicago (6-seed)
Chicago flip-flopped all season long, going through periods of surges and droughts. At one point in December or January, they had lost 9 or 10 in a row and the talking heads were calling for Coach Q's head. It's hard to say what went wrong against Phoenix. Mike Smith decisively outplayed Corey Crawford, who was inconsistent all season long, and much can be hung there. But the Hawks didn't look themselves, either, perhaps victims of inconsistent penalty calls and suspensions. Andrew Shaw's 3-game suspension for (unintentionally, it seemed to me) running into Mike Smith was excessive and might have put the Hawks on their heels more than people realize. It was clear to me, though, that a great deal of spirit left the team when Marian Hossa got laid out. Hossa's a more integral part of that offense than people realize; a strong, quiet presence as important as Toews or Kane. His absence was palpable to me in Game 6. This is still a good team, but they're still recovering from all of the hemorrhaging they did after winning the Cup in 2010. Their defense lacks depth and Crawford might not be the guy. Similar futures await without some changes.
San Jose (7-seed)
Out of the two teams who got their seedings on the last day of the season, I expected San Jose's playoff experience to advance them over a much more raw Kings team. Yet, the Sharks got soundly ejected by the Blues, whereas the Kings delivered the stunner of the quarterfinals thusfar. I didn't see much of the Sharks series, I have to admit, but I expected more from them. But the Sharks had been playing playoff hockey for weeks and may very well have slowed down against a Blues team ready to pounce on any mistakes made. Obviously some work must be done for this team to be better, but I really don't see them being vastly inferior to Los Angeles, or having the problems Chicago does. They'll be back.
But on the plus side for all four of these teams? None of them are Pittsburgh. Who knew we'd be saying that after the first round of the playoffs? More on that when the Eastern Quarterfinals wrap up.
Friday, April 20, 2012
The Demise of the 2011-12 Red Wings
Of all traditions in sports, the post-series handshake in the NHL has to be one of my favorites. After being vanquished in a tough series, it's always heartening to see smiles and handshakes, shows of respect to one another. Nick Lidstrom sharing extra words with Suter and Weber. Zetterberg and Weber sharing a civil handshake. Jimmy Howard and Pekka Rinne having a handshake and brief man-hug. Lidstrom and Babcock both having extra words to Barry Trotz. Beautiful moment from a tight series; an obvious show that both teams have great respect for one another.
Now, congratulations to Nashville. They've slain their Goliath, putting down the divisional rival Red Wings, the team that was their standard to beat. They put the NHL's primary current dynasty on their butts and made them the first team out this year. Not only that, but they did it convincingly. For those who watched all five games, did you ever suspect at any point that Nashville would lose the series? I predicted a Nashville victory in 5, but I didn't expect Detroit to spend a lot of it looking deflated. Nashville ground them down and wore on them all series long. The pressure from their top guys was relentless. Have you seen such a stifling defense? The praise of this victory is going to Rinne, who had an impressive save percentage from it, but that was courtesy of a defense that rarely let Detroit have a good shooting lane. The Red Wings are a team that doesn't dump the puck on net often as it is, rather content to cycle the puck until the right shot opens up. With Nashville, the right shot never opened up. Many of the pucks that came Rinne's way were easy saves.
Did you see those sweet Datsyuk highlights, though? No? Oh, right, that's because there weren't any. Yet another mark of that Nashville defense - they controlled the Red Wings' top players. Datsyuk was under such pressure from Fisher or Suter so often that he never got to play wizard on them. The Wings looked tired. How many shots did they not get because their reactions seemed a split-second too slow? Meanwhile, Nashville was all over everything. Trotz said it perfectly early in Game 5 - they weren't going to try to beat the Red Wings at their game, they were going to make the Red Wings play theirs. It worked. They didn't try to play a puck possession game or prevent the Red Wings from doing so. They responded to it with a perfect defense, clogging the shooting and passing lanes and leaving the Wings very little reward for their effort.
The biggest thing the Wings were missing in this game was a grinding element. Babcock even acknowledged after Game 1 that they really didn't have the personnel to exact revenge on Shea Weber for his WWE-style tactics on Zetterberg. Bertuzzi apparently disagreed, but in truth, Babcock was right. The Wings are a finesse team. They have been for a long time. But they also used to keep about a line's worth of grinders - guys like McCarty or Maltby or Draper. Guys who could go out and wear out the opposition, or punch them in the mouth when need be. To be fair, Helm is the new (faster!) Draper, a grinder in the mold of those guys, although a much more significant playoff "x-factor" because of his breakaway speed. Eaves, even fills in that role some. Abdelkader can do that, too, as he led the Wings in fighting penalties this year, but he can't do it alone, and he's still a pretty young kid up against some pretty big Nashville guys. The Wings can finesse their way past a lot of teams, but it was clear from the start of this series that the Predators would have none of that, indeed, were built and schemed specifically to not allow that.
So where do the Wings go from here? There's been talk already among the Detroit media of "blowing the team up" or "shaking things up significantly." That's pretty premature, if you ask me. For one, the Wings were lacking two significant playmakers in Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves. While two injuries shouldn't make or break a series, it leaves a mark, and as some NHL pundits have mentioned, the winning team is often the least injured team. Beyond that, the Red Wings are an older, veteran team, and perhaps Father Time is catching up with them some. Perhaps the new parity of the NHL is catching up more now, as well, as other teams are closing the talent gap more, with several years of planning and modeling paying dividends now. Perhaps some of everything.
As far as shaking things up, well, some of that will happen naturally. There's no certainty that Nick Lidstrom will be back; he'll be 42 in a week and while he still plays at a high level, he's starting to slow down, especially at the end of the year. Brad Stuart is almost certain to be gone; he wants to be on the West Coast, nearer his family and home, and if he offers teams from those areas a discount on his market price, well, he'll find a home there. Tomas Holmstrom is 39 and has acknowledged the wear and tear on his body from the game he loves; he's an unrestricted free agent.
Ken Holland knows these things. There's a reason they traded for Kyle Quincey, who will hopefully be better in a full season wearing the Winged Wheel. Assume that Lidstrom and Stuart both leave; without acquiring any new players, the Wings' starting six defensemen would likely be Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Quincey, Jakub Kindl, and Brendan Smith. Not a bad set. Not what we'd be used to, but honestly not bad. Brendan Smith is considered the top prospect in the Wings' farm, and he showed in a brief stint with the Wings this year that he belongs on the roster. Kindl and Quincey both need work, but that comes from playing. I expect the Wings to go out and acquire another defensemen or two to have depth and competition, but given the above, don't expect a big splash. That's not how the Wings do things. People griped at ho-hum nature of the Ian White acquisition in last year, but he's been huge for the Wings this year and fit into their system perfectly. As for Holmstrom, his departure would only clear the way for some of the other young Wings to rise up - both Gustav Nyquist and Jan Mursak impressed me during their time with the team this year and both, I feel, should be on the roster to start next season.
The Red Wings are entering a period of transition, insofar as the Red Wings transition. If it's not this year, I am certain next year will be Lidstrom's last. The "C" will be passed on (to Zetterberg, I'm sure). A new group of veterans will guide a new group of young players. Just as Yzerman, Draper, and Lidstrom brought up a group of upstarts named Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall, so will those guys bring up more. It's how the Wings do things. Maybe then they'll find that ever-important, never-quantifiable "hunger" to bring another Cup to Hockeytown.
Now, congratulations to Nashville. They've slain their Goliath, putting down the divisional rival Red Wings, the team that was their standard to beat. They put the NHL's primary current dynasty on their butts and made them the first team out this year. Not only that, but they did it convincingly. For those who watched all five games, did you ever suspect at any point that Nashville would lose the series? I predicted a Nashville victory in 5, but I didn't expect Detroit to spend a lot of it looking deflated. Nashville ground them down and wore on them all series long. The pressure from their top guys was relentless. Have you seen such a stifling defense? The praise of this victory is going to Rinne, who had an impressive save percentage from it, but that was courtesy of a defense that rarely let Detroit have a good shooting lane. The Red Wings are a team that doesn't dump the puck on net often as it is, rather content to cycle the puck until the right shot opens up. With Nashville, the right shot never opened up. Many of the pucks that came Rinne's way were easy saves.
Did you see those sweet Datsyuk highlights, though? No? Oh, right, that's because there weren't any. Yet another mark of that Nashville defense - they controlled the Red Wings' top players. Datsyuk was under such pressure from Fisher or Suter so often that he never got to play wizard on them. The Wings looked tired. How many shots did they not get because their reactions seemed a split-second too slow? Meanwhile, Nashville was all over everything. Trotz said it perfectly early in Game 5 - they weren't going to try to beat the Red Wings at their game, they were going to make the Red Wings play theirs. It worked. They didn't try to play a puck possession game or prevent the Red Wings from doing so. They responded to it with a perfect defense, clogging the shooting and passing lanes and leaving the Wings very little reward for their effort.
The biggest thing the Wings were missing in this game was a grinding element. Babcock even acknowledged after Game 1 that they really didn't have the personnel to exact revenge on Shea Weber for his WWE-style tactics on Zetterberg. Bertuzzi apparently disagreed, but in truth, Babcock was right. The Wings are a finesse team. They have been for a long time. But they also used to keep about a line's worth of grinders - guys like McCarty or Maltby or Draper. Guys who could go out and wear out the opposition, or punch them in the mouth when need be. To be fair, Helm is the new (faster!) Draper, a grinder in the mold of those guys, although a much more significant playoff "x-factor" because of his breakaway speed. Eaves, even fills in that role some. Abdelkader can do that, too, as he led the Wings in fighting penalties this year, but he can't do it alone, and he's still a pretty young kid up against some pretty big Nashville guys. The Wings can finesse their way past a lot of teams, but it was clear from the start of this series that the Predators would have none of that, indeed, were built and schemed specifically to not allow that.
So where do the Wings go from here? There's been talk already among the Detroit media of "blowing the team up" or "shaking things up significantly." That's pretty premature, if you ask me. For one, the Wings were lacking two significant playmakers in Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves. While two injuries shouldn't make or break a series, it leaves a mark, and as some NHL pundits have mentioned, the winning team is often the least injured team. Beyond that, the Red Wings are an older, veteran team, and perhaps Father Time is catching up with them some. Perhaps the new parity of the NHL is catching up more now, as well, as other teams are closing the talent gap more, with several years of planning and modeling paying dividends now. Perhaps some of everything.
As far as shaking things up, well, some of that will happen naturally. There's no certainty that Nick Lidstrom will be back; he'll be 42 in a week and while he still plays at a high level, he's starting to slow down, especially at the end of the year. Brad Stuart is almost certain to be gone; he wants to be on the West Coast, nearer his family and home, and if he offers teams from those areas a discount on his market price, well, he'll find a home there. Tomas Holmstrom is 39 and has acknowledged the wear and tear on his body from the game he loves; he's an unrestricted free agent.
Ken Holland knows these things. There's a reason they traded for Kyle Quincey, who will hopefully be better in a full season wearing the Winged Wheel. Assume that Lidstrom and Stuart both leave; without acquiring any new players, the Wings' starting six defensemen would likely be Kronwall, White, Ericsson, Quincey, Jakub Kindl, and Brendan Smith. Not a bad set. Not what we'd be used to, but honestly not bad. Brendan Smith is considered the top prospect in the Wings' farm, and he showed in a brief stint with the Wings this year that he belongs on the roster. Kindl and Quincey both need work, but that comes from playing. I expect the Wings to go out and acquire another defensemen or two to have depth and competition, but given the above, don't expect a big splash. That's not how the Wings do things. People griped at ho-hum nature of the Ian White acquisition in last year, but he's been huge for the Wings this year and fit into their system perfectly. As for Holmstrom, his departure would only clear the way for some of the other young Wings to rise up - both Gustav Nyquist and Jan Mursak impressed me during their time with the team this year and both, I feel, should be on the roster to start next season.
The Red Wings are entering a period of transition, insofar as the Red Wings transition. If it's not this year, I am certain next year will be Lidstrom's last. The "C" will be passed on (to Zetterberg, I'm sure). A new group of veterans will guide a new group of young players. Just as Yzerman, Draper, and Lidstrom brought up a group of upstarts named Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Kronwall, so will those guys bring up more. It's how the Wings do things. Maybe then they'll find that ever-important, never-quantifiable "hunger" to bring another Cup to Hockeytown.
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