Week 4 was an improvement on Week 3 - I went 11-5 last week.
That puts my season at 43-21 so far.
So far, I've learned these lessons this season:
1) The Redskins are for real, by playing a run-first, defense-first type of football.
2) The 49ers are for real, but less so than the Redskins, because they're in the NFC West.
3) The Steelers are getting old, fast, and it's showing.
4) The Lions are 4-0 and have yet to play a good, complete 60-minute game this year.
5) The Packers are 4-0 and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL right now.
6) Donovan McNabb is washed up.
7) Cam Newton is the real deal.
8) Josh McDaniels is having a horrifically adverse effect on the Rams offense.
As for this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Philadelphia (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Jacksonville (1-3)
Tennessee (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)
Kansas City (1-3) @ Indianapolis (0-4)
Oakland (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)
Arizona (1-3) @ Minnesota (0-4)
New Orleans (3-1) @ Carolina (1-3)
Seattle (1-3) @ NY Giants (3-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ San Francisco (3-1)
San Diego (3-1) @ Denver (1-3)
NY Jets (2-2) @ New England (3-1)
Sunday Night -
Green Bay (4-0) @ Atlanta (2-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-2) @ Detroit (4-0)
Byes -
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Based on four weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Nice slate this week. Obviously, the Seahawks will lose - West Coast traveling to East Coast for an early game rule in effect. I'm tempted to use that rule on Arizona, but they're only traveling to Central time and the Vikings are awful, so there. The Bills face the desperate Eagles after suffering their first loss - which team reacts to adversity better? Tough call. I think we can officially put every Carolina game in "trap game" status for the other team - the Panthers won't win a lot of games this year, but will be better than their record and good to beat anyone on any given Sunday; I'm still not picking them yet, though. I'm also not ready to pick the Colts to beat anybody - not even the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay and San Francisco game should be educational - it's a big game for those teams as they try to preserve 1-loss records. Pittsburgh has to beat Tennessee, but the Titans are playing some tough ball. Like Philly, though, the Steelers need a win to boost themselves. I think one of the Pennsylvania teams wins this week and the other's downward spiral steepens. Normally, I'd like Houston at home over Oakland - but not with Andre Johnson gone. Gonna be a lot of running the ball in that game.
My sincere hope is for an undefeated Packers team to meet an undefeated Lions team on Thanksgiving - that'd be intense. But I feel like that's unlikely and that something will give this week. Am I picking against either team right now? Hell no. But Matt Ryan's Falcons have only lost twice at home and the Lions have yet to play a complete game. Will Matt Ryan's success at home continue against an awful Packer pass defense? Will the sloppy first half play of the Lions finally catch up to them? I could see these scenarios playing out, but I'm not going to try and predict upsets here yet.
In other news, I have a bone to pick with the NFL. This whole new rule where every scoring play is reviewed is absolutely bogus. It's extending game times and creating one or two extra commercial breaks each touchdown. I'm settling into a rhythm of getting up after every scoring play because I know it'll be reviewed, no matter how clear it is, and I have time to make a sandwich or grab, drink and grab another beer. It's ridiculous. First of all, it's just not necessary. Secondly, isn't that what coaches' challenges are for? It seems that rules are taking challenges more and more out of coaches' hands. Leave it alone. This is a fix for something that wasn't broken and it's infuriating as a fan.
As for my survival picks, which have been completely bad this year, this week is a tougher one. I'd probably take the NY Giants as the surest pick, with secondary considerations to New Orleans and San Diego. But the Giants are only home team of those three, which gives them an edge for me, especially against a West Coast team. Easy one this week, I think.
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