Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 10

I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.

This week:

Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)

Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)

Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)

Byes -
None.  There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week.  Someone explain this to me.  Seriously.

After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.

So - Thursday night's game.  The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark.  I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter.  Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush.  They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now.  Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.

For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much.  I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year.  I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up.  I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers.  I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer.  Right, I can't think of one either.  I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week.  I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there.  I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season.  I think there's enough pride there to get the single win.  I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was.  When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case.  I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.

For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often.  The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going.  The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes.  I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week.  That's a mismatch in and of itself.  But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later.  Big implications there.  But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more.  And again, bye vs. short week; ouch.  I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week.  I don't bet against consistency like that.

For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots.  They're being exposed.  They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game.  Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes.  I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.

For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here.  The talent gap is just too big.