Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 11

Ouch.  5-11 last week.

92-52 on the season now.

This week:

Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)

Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)

Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh

After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.

Thursday Night's easy.  No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes.  It's not gonna happen.  Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.

For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them.  Same for Detroit over Carolina.  Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs.  I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore.  Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle.  Whatever.  I like them at home, in their own division, though.  But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they?  Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic.  Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right.  Jacksonville has MJD.  Done.  Green Bay is going undefeated.  Seriously.  I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected.  I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.

For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis.  I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division.  Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons.  Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears.  That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.

Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here.  Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?

Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team.  If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll.  But they'll score less points than people think.