Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 12

Happy Thanksgiving!

Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.

For this weekend:

Thursday (Thanksgiving)  -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)

Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)

Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)

Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)

After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.

For Thursday's games - I'm on board.  I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to).  Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions.  And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl.  I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game.  Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible.  And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.

For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset.  The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver.  The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset.  Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie.  Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win.  I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford.  As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub.  Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy.  It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.

For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB.  I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago.  Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team.  Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose.  The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.

For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed?  Oh well.  Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting.  For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.

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