2011 NFL Season in Review

Week 17 saw me go 10-6, putting my season finish at 159-97.  That's two games below last season, but still a 62% winning percentage and equivalent to a 10-6 average, approximately.

The playoff board is set, but I'll discuss that later this week.  For today, the year in review and my choices for award winners.

Feel-good teams of the year -

How can we not sit back and applaud for the Lions, Texans and 49ers?  All had playoff-droughts of almost, or longer, than a decade and all three charged into the playoffs this season.  The Lions may have a 6-seed, but they owned it before Week 17.  The 49ers and Texans both locked up their divisions with three weeks (or more, for the 49ers) to play.  Cincinnati gets an honorable mention here, too, not only for making the playoffs, but parting ways with Carson Palmer and receiving a king's ransom of picks for a guy who really didn't play that well.

Mystifying collapses of the year -

This has to go to Dallas and Tampa Bay.  Dallas let game after game slip away - in fact, NBC ran a stat during the game last night that the Cowboys have lost 8 games under Jason Garrett with the lead at the start of the 4th quarter!  That's crazy.  This team had every opportunity to put up and shut up and win a division and they failed, including a win-and-you're-in game in Week 17 that they came out totally flat for.  As for Tampa Bay, I don't even know how that team collapsed so far so fast.  They looked uninspired and flat all season long.  At the start of the year, I predicted either Detroit or Tampa (last year's hot young teams-to-be) would falter and the other would make the playoffs, but I had no idea Tampa would fall so far.  Honorable mention to St. Louis, who looked poised for a competitive year, but also came out looking terrible.  Their biggest change was acquiring new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (former offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur took the head coaching job in Cleveland) and it was their offense that turned out to be entirely putrid.  Indianapolis doesn't count here because everyone should have known that team was not set up to survive without Peyton Manning.

Most disappointing division -

The NFC East sucks.  They fostered the only NFC playoff team with less than 10 wins when most people (including yours truly) expected a tightly fought division with at least one Wild Card team coming from it.  Instead, you had Dallas handing away games all year long; you had Philadelphia playing bad fundamentals; you had Washington being a classic Mike Shanahan team, post-Elway.  The Redskins started out 3-0 and looked set to go until Shanahan benched Rex Grossman indefinitely after one bad game.  I felt that this eroded the locker room trust there and it probably didn't help when Shanahan started playing musical chairs at running back.  The Eagles, well, you hand Michael Vick a ton of money long-term and promote your offensive line coach to defensive coordinator and... well, this is what you get.  Someone let me know when Vick plays all 16 games of a season.  The Giants won this division by default, not so much because they ran away with it.  They dropped winnable games throughout the season, but managed to take it because other teams failed along the way (Dallas had a great shot to win the division, but likewise lost critical games late in the year).  

Peaking at the right time - 

The Saints looked wobbly all year long, including stunning losses to St. Louis and Tampa Bay, but they appear to have their act together at the right time.  They've torched the end of the season and seem the most ready for a playoff run of all twelve teams remaining.  The limelight has moved a little bit away from the Packers since their loss and is a little more on the red-hot Saints as the playoff starts.  I would also argue that the Lions look pretty scary after their rout of the Chargers and a high-flying game at Lambeau.  Even though they lost at Lambeau, I have to believe - and hope - that they played relatively vanilla defensive schemes with their playoff hopes locked up.  After all, a rematch would be in the books if they beat New Orleans - and if that's the case, showing Green Bay one thing in Week 17, then something else the next time they play (it'd be consecutive games against the same opponent for Green Bay) is advantageous to the Lions.  Don't let their Week 17 loss fool you - the talking sports heads out there get all riled up, but the difference between the #5/6 seeds is nil; one might get you a cushy matchup in the first week of the playoffs, but I don't think Schwartz's Lions are worried about that - they know they have to take on the big boys to win the big prize, so I don't think they're afraid of going to New Orleans instead of New York.

Where'd you come from?

Victor Cruz is not a Pro Bowler, which is a crime.  He won't be in the running for rookie of the year, either, since it's not his rookie season (last year was, but he missed it all due to an injury suffered in the preseason).  But this guy is electric.  His first season as an NFL player saw him shatter the single-season receiving yardage record for the Giants (set previously by Amani Toomer).  In fact, if not for the emergence of Cruz, the Giants aren't a playoff team.  You're not hearing enough about this guy outside of New York and fantasy football.

Oh, that injury bug...

Chicago looked poised to take the 6-seed.  I thought they would; they'd help the Lions to a 10-win season without a playoff berth, since if Chicago had won 10-games, they'd hold the tiebreaker (I believe).  Instead, Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down and then Chicago collapsed around them, lacking the depth or talent to compete otherwise.  With both men out of the lineup, Chicago's season ended 8-8, with their sole win coming against a terrible Minnesota team.  And in that win?  They saw Brian Urlacher sustain a devastating injury that's been reported as a sprain, but looked nothing like it.  Even as a rival, I respect the longevity and tenacity of Brian Urlacher - but if that's a serious injury after all, you have to wonder if it's a career-ender.  A Bears defense without him isn't the same (similar rules apply to Ray Lewis and Baltimore).

Coaches on the hotseat already fired -

Two have already been fired this morning: Raheem Morris in Tampa and Spagnuolo in St. Louis.  I agree with the Tampa firing; if your entire team plays flat and uninspired, with no real drive, and goes from a great up-and-coming season to a complete 4-12 collapse, it's on the coach.  I'm not so sure about Spagnuolo - his team still competed and still played solid defense, for the most part.  His offense, however, never looked right and Sam Bradford clearly had trouble transitioning to his second offense in two years.  That's sad, because Bradford looked great last year as a rookie.  That responsibility falls on Josh McDaniels, who I felt should have borne the brunt of the blame for the Rams' failures this year.  Assuming St. Louis keeps with Bradford, he'll have a new offense to learn for the third time in three years.  Let this be a cautionary tale to everyone - no matter how sure a prospect a guy is, changing what's around him annually will stunt his growth.  Sam Bradford runs a serious risk of following in the footsteps of Joey Harrington and David Carr as he goes into his second offseason.  Quarterbacks who are often successful early on have continuity at offensive coordinator.

Coaches on the hotseat -

The players love him, but I have to wonder how Norv Turner keeps his job.  San Diego collapsed again and played inefficient football for most of the season, again.  Remember last year, they were top-5 in offense and defense, yet didn't make the playoffs.  Norv has always had success as an offensive coordinator, and less so as a head coach.  Might be time to move on.  I have serious questions about Andy Reid, who has been the Eagles' coach forever, but has yet to deliver them the big prize.  His teams almost always fall short somehow, like the hero of a Greek tragedy, who has a fatal flaw at the critical moment.  He looked tired this year, detached, until his team spun off a 4 game winning stream to close things out, which probably saved his job.  Likewise, Jason Garrett should be given a lot of scrutiny in Dallas.  That team seems to lack heart when they need it most and 4th-quarter collapses fall on the coaches (for example, up by 3+ possessions against Detroit, why are you passing?).  In Washington, I have to wonder how much longer the Mike Shanahan experiment will go on, when it is clear to everyone outside of Washington that it is a trainwreck so far.  If the Colts part ways with Peyton Manning, I think they have every reason to do so with Jim Caldwell, as well.  Caldwell inherited Dungy's team and won on his fumes for a couple years, but the team is in clear decline due to poor drafting (which falls on the Polians) and, quite frankly, Caldwell has often looked in above his head.  I suspect that Peyton runs the offense himself (he'll make a good coach after he retires, mark my words).  It doesn't help that their draft picks haven't been panning out lately, but with the aging defense as well... it seems like a logical time to clean house in Indianapolis and rebuild for the future, with a new quarterback, coach and GM.  

Offensive Rookie of the Year -

Cam Newton, and it isn't even close.  This is self-explanatory.  The kid is the real deal, an absolute stud.  He appears to have something all other dual-threat NFL QBs have lacked - durability to play that kind of game.  He may be a one-of-a-kind talent; the durability and determination of Ben Roethlisberger, the raw talent and electricity of Michael Vick.  More importantly, he takes care of the football.  For a dual-threat quarterback to have only three fumbles is remarkable.  He threw more TDs than picks and I expect, over time, he'll take better care of the ball in the air, too.  Carolina has a bright future with Cam Newton.

Defensive Rookie of the Year -

Aldon Smith.  It was Von Miller of Denver for a long time, but San Francisco was dominant all season long and while many attribute that to Jim Harbaugh (rightfully so, see below) and Alex Smith, Aldon Smith helped invigorate the already-solid defense led by Patrick Willis and give it teeth.  His 14 sacks led rookies and he added 2 forced fumbles to that over the season.  It's always hard to judge the value of individual defensive players, especially young ones, but you can make the argument that Smith helped his team win games and without his exceptional play, they wouldn't be enjoying a playoff bye week, at least.

Offensive Player of the Year -

Drew Brees.  He didn't just break Marino's old passing record of 5,084 yards - he did that with one game left on the schedule.  He obliterated it, finishing with 5,476 yards after his final game this season, and odds are that record will stand as long as Marino's did, if not longer.  We'll look back on this season and gasp about Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, about the year of quarterbacking that was.  Brees led what might have been the most dynamic offense of the year, finishing with 46 TDs and 14 INTs.  

Defensive Player of the Year -

This is tough.  Jared Allen had 22 sacks for a 3-win team.  London Fletcher had 166 tackles for a 5-win team.  Kyle Arrington had 7 INTs for a porous New England defense.  Eric Weddle, likewise, had 7 INTs, but on a team that didn't make the playoffs.  Charles Woodson can make an argument with 7 INTs, 70+ tackles and a forced fumble, but Green Bay wasn't a remarkable defense, either (although, better than we think at first glance).

No.  Looking over it, I think the defensive player of the year becomes evident.  He played all 16 games this season and helped one of the league's best defenses overcome the absence of its best player for awhile.  He finished the season with 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and 2 INTs.  I'm giving the award to Terrell Suggs of the Baltimore Ravens.  At the end of the year this season, we weren't talking about the terror that is Ray Lewis - no, the man people were talking about in the same breath as the defense was Suggs, who wrecked havoc for Baltimore this season, helping lead them to the #2 seed and an AFC North championship.  To press the point home, 3 of his sacks, 2 of his forced fumbles and 1 of his INTs came when the Ravens needed them most - against Pittsburgh.

Coach of the Year -

As much as I want to give this to Jim Schwartz, and as much as he deserves a "Coach of the last 3 years combined" award, it's just not going to happen.  Jim Harbaugh gets it, for turning a lackluster 49ers team into a 13-3 division champion.  Take a look at this - Harbaugh did it in the season after the lockout, getting only a month or so with his new team before the season started.  He did it not by bringing in "his own guys" as many new coaches do, but by working with the personnel on hand.  He guided Alex Smith to his best year as a starter after everyone had classified him as a bust, albeit a long-lived one.  He did all of this with no NFL head coaching experience, coming fresh from the college ranks.  A more impressive single first year on the job may not exist.  There should be no debating this award this year.

Most Valuable Player -

Aaron Rodgers.  While Matt Flynn's evisceration of the Lions on Week 17 may take away from this argument (I maintain my belief that they played a watered-down defense in a meaningless game), you have to realize that Rodgers had the best season on record for a quarterback and led his team to a 14-1 record.  4,643 yards and 45 TDs wasn't as electric as what Brees or Brady did this season, but they key number, the one that helped his team win more games, is his 6 INTs.  That's incredibly low.  Brady had 12; Brees 14.  Rodgers did not lead the most dynamic offense in the league (although it is plenty dynamic); he led the most efficient, by far.  And that's what a true MVP does - he wins games and doesn't make mistakes.  He is irreplaceable to his team and Aaron Rodgers is just that.  Brady and Brees may be to their teams as well, but when you look at the stat lines of everyone involved you have to think that, with no names attached, just stats, most people want Rodgers over the other two, because you see his 68% completion rate and his few INTs and you know that this man wins more games.  He's more valuable.  Congratulations, Mr. Rodgers.

The 2011 Detroit Lions, as the turkey digests...

The Lions stand at 7-4 after Thanksgiving, with some tough games and some not-so-tough games yet on the schedule.  It still seems realistic, if not likely, that they'll hit my projected 10-6 mark and have a shot at an NFC Wild Card playoff spot.  They're a good team for the first time in a decade, a team that should have a winning record every year and should be in playoff contention.  But when I watch them play good teams, it becomes evident to me that there's yet a gulf between the Lions and the way playoff-winning teams look.

That's okay.  A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time.  I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half.  But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.

The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen.  You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early.  I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart.  To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive.  In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB.  Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything.  That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.

The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving.  First is the penalties.  They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up.  At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have.  If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers.  Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely.  As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert.  When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers.  They need to clean up the penalties.  Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.

The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync.  It's not.  Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue.  After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way.  Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had.  They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later.  Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game.  Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having.  Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.

Third - Ndamukong Suh.  I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique.  Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well.  He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength.  This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders.  The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact.  On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff.  Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.

But I can no longer defend Suh.  Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away.  On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line.  It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play.  He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team.  A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.

Suh deserved to get ejected.  That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator.  And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned.  Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs.  I like that fiery attitude.  I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off.  Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see.  And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem.  The NFL should suspend Suh.  I expect that to happen.  I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh.  I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too."  It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him.  I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.

Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted.  I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression.  As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world?  Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it.  It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player.  Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it.  He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that.  But the Detroit Lions need to step up here.  Suh is one of the faces of the team.  It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation.  The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it.  They should.  At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.