Thursday, September 29, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 4

So last week was a little rougher - I went 8-8.  That puts my season at 32-16.

But as per when we fail, we certainly learned a lot last week, as teams made some serious declarations about themselves as this season begins to take real shape.

For this week:

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (3-0) @ Cincinnati (1-2)
Carolina (1-2) @ Chicago (1-2)
Tennessee (2-1) @ Cleveland (2-1)
Detroit (3-0) @ Dallas (2-1)
Minnesota (0-3) @ Kansas City (0-3)
Washington (2-1) @ St. Louis (0-3)
New Orleans (2-1) @ Jacksonville (1-2)
San Francisco (2-1) @ Philadelphia (1-2)
Pittsburgh (2-1) @ Houston (2-1)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Atlanta (2-1) @ Seattle (1-2)
NY Giants (2-1) @ Arizona (1-2)
Denver (1-2) @ Green Bay (3-0)
New England (2-1) @ Oakland (2-1)
Miami (0-3) @ San Diego (2-1)

Sunday Night -
NY Jets (2-1) @ Baltimore (2-1)

Monday Night -
Indianapolis (0-3) @ Tampa Bay (2-1)

Based on three weeks of play, right now I would predict the Buffalo over Detroit in Super Bowl XLVI.

I feel like all three undefeated teams have fairly easy matchups... Detroit's seems the most challenging, but I don't think Dallas is that good, and the Lions' D-line should put some fear in Romo early.  I think the Colts will throw away the season and win Andrew Luck.  It makes sense.  I think Miami is horrible.  I also think Kansas City is horrible, definitely moreso than Minnesota, who showed a lot of life last week (play-calling jacked them up more than anything).  Not sure what the deal is in St. Louis, but I'm not touching that - the Redskins are playing inspired football.  I'm buying into the Bills and I'm buying into Oakland.  The Raiders look for real and I think they're a way tougher team than the Patriots, who look very soft and very bad at pass defense.  Anyone else see Tom Brady half-ass it on Buffalo's pick-six last week?  Yeah, that tells me you've won too much and your time in the sun is over.  Arizona couldn't beat Seattle, so I've got no faith in that team anymore, since Seattle is still horrible.  Tennessee/Cleveland is a very hard match to call - Tennessee has shown me more lately, but that ought to be close.  I could see Houston beating Pittsburgh too; Pittsburgh does not appear to be as good as they used to be and Houston kept up with the Saints last week.  There'll be things to learn in that one; big game for both.  I could also see Carolina being the upset of the week over Chicago, but I don't have enough faith in Team Cam quite yet to pick 'em.  But they're on my radar.

All of my recommended survival picks panned out last week except for Cincinnati, but my strongest recommendations were Pittsburgh or Carolina, anyway.  That Pittsburgh pick looked mighty good in hindsight now; given that they barely beat a weak Colts team, I'd have trouble finding faith to use them again soon.

My recommended picks this week would be Minnesota, in perhaps the only situation all year you'd use them, or Tampa Bay.  San Diego is a good one, too, although the Dolphins are better on the road than at home.  But those are my top three, no question.  Other considerations go to Green Bay, but you'll probably want them later, or Atlanta, who really might not be as good as we thought.  The NY Giants are a thought, too, but Arizona might be out for blood after losing to the Seahawks.  So take heed.  I like Minnesota and Tampa Bay the most, as I don't expect a lot of opportunity to use them later.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 3

This whole thing about faking injuries to slow down games is really amusing to me.  Is it news to the NFL that this happens?  It's seemed obvious to me for years... as a result, I've come to believe that the "penalty" for an injured player is too easy - if a player is injured and requires an injury timeout, they're forced to miss the next play.  If they're okay, they can come back.  One play?  Seems a pretty minor thing to lose a DL or DB for if the offense is killing you with a no-huddle.  Heck, depending on your defensive package rotation, you could time it so that player isn't needed next play anyway.  The NFL is now up in arms about the Giants possibly faking injuries in last week's Monday Night game.  Their solution would be to look at handing out fines.  Big deal.  Who cares?  If they want to stop injury fakers, the solution is simple and obvious: change the "penalty" for it.  If a player requires an injury timeout, change the rule so that injured players have to sit out the rest of the drive.  That's reasonable, to better assess injury and a player's condition, and it also will prevent players from faking injuries, because one play might not mean much, but losing a player for a drive can result in points.  Makes sense, right?

Anyway, onto the picks.

Last week, I went a stunning 14-2, whiffing only on the Ravens and the Eagles.  The Ravens were a legit upset - in the other game, I disobeyed one of the obvious rules of pick 'em the past couple years: always take Matty Ice in the Georgia Dome.  Oops.  Guess I was too high on the Eagles.

That puts me at 24-8 on the season so far.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
San Francisco (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1)
Miami (0-2) @ Cleveland (1-1)
Denver (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1)
Detroit (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Houston (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
NY Giants (1-1) @ Philadelphia (1-1)
Jacksonville (1-1) @ Carolina (0-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1)
NY Jets (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1)
Baltimore (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2)
Atlanta (1-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-1)
Green Bay (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1)
Arizona (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Indianapolis (0-2)

Monday Night -
Washington (2-0) @ Dallas (1-1)

Based on two weeks of play, right now I would predict Detroit over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.

Some tough picks this week; I think Houston/New Orleans could really go either way... just who plays better defense.  I think Buffalo could legitimately upset New England, since the Patriots are playing awful defense, but give the edge to the Pats... but how the Bills play will say a lot about that team.  Tampa could upset Atlanta too; that game is in Tampa, after all.  Carolina/Jacksonville will see Gabbert vs. Newton - I think Carolina is the better team with the better rookie at QB.  Could St. Louis upset Baltimore?  Wouldn't shock me.  Tennessee should beat Denver, in theory, but I think both are bad teams.  I like Miami over Cleveland - that's a must win for Miami or their season goes into tailspin and Cleveland couldn't beat Cincinnati.  Speaking of which, Cincy over San Francisco.  I like that pick.  I have almost zero faith in the NFC West again.

Hey, remember when Pittsburgh/Indy looked like a really good game?  Right, not anymore... and I think Washington pulls an upset on Dallas.  With no Tony Romo, that suddenly better-than-advertised Washington defense will control the game.

On a sidenote, I think the Colts need to blow this season and win the Andrew Luck lottery.  What a home run it would be for them to bring in Luck in the twilight of Manning's career and let him sit for a year or two behind one of this generation's best.  Luck is almost pro-ready anyway; if that situation were to play out, he'd end up in a great position.  But one thing is true of the Colts, which I've thought for awhile - they need Peyton to function.  The Colts could continue a line of great stability at the position if they were able to pull off something like that.

For survival picks this week, I'd avoid the Lions - only because history is against them and I'm not 100% sold on the team yet.  I want to be; but Tampa beat themselves and Kansas City is reeling.  If they can lay out the Vikings in the 'Dome, then we'll know they're probably for real, but I won't believe it til mid-season - after all, remember in 2007 when they started out 6-2, yet bombed out for a 7-9 finish before they went 0-16.  Nonetheless, if the Lions go 4-0 entering their home Monday Night game and win that one, I'll be convinced.

Real survival picks I like this week would be - Pittsburgh as a duh, no-brainer.  And given how old that team is looking in places, this is a good week to use them.  Carolina is feasible if you want to gamble, and since you'd probably never use them later.  San Diego is a lock, and I'd also go with Cincinnati (another team you're unlikely to use later) or Tennessee, for the same reason.  You could use Baltimore, but that game gives me a bad feeling and that's a team that, if they're for real, you'll want to have later on.

Monday, September 19, 2011

Pierce's Picks - MLB Regular Season Finale

The baseball season is ending.  It's been a pretty wild ride.  We had some surprise surges, including memorable first halves of the season by Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and we had some pretty surprising teams fall off - can you say 100 losses in Minnesota this season?  So, since I picked up this blog late in the season, I'm going to tell you how the rest of things will play out.

1) Justin Verlander will be the AL Cy Young winner, but he will not win the MVP, despite being the clear MVP, because he is a pitcher.  While Tigers fans will initially feel burned by this, they won't feel so bad when Verlander takes his quiet fury into the playoffs, is even better than he was in the regular season, and leads them to their first World Series victory since the year of my birth, 1984.

2) Yes, that's a formal prediction - the Tigers are going to win the World Series.

3) The Red Sox fail to collapse entirely (an overblown story, in my opinion) and take the Wild Card spot over the Tampa Bay Rays, only to be swept by the Tigers or Rangers.

4) I really like Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young.  He deserves it; but I can't shake the feeling that somehow either Halladay or Lee end up with it.

5) Atlanta is the NL Wild Card.  This has been known to me since June.  I'm amused at how analysts seem to still think this is a race somehow.

6) I'm not buying the Phillies entirely yet.  Anything can happen in that NL playoff field.

7) On that note - the Diamondbacks meet (and lose to) the Tigers in the World Series.  Really.  I'm going to call it the Sparky Anderson Classic.

8) I predict I don't follow the NL closely enough (outside of pitching stats) to declare an MVP.  Ah, I see I got one prediction right!

9) The Minnesota Twins will become, if memory serves, the second member of the 100-100 club - losing 100+ games with a $100M+ payroll.  I can't see them winning 4 of 11 to finish the season and avoid it.  They'd be joining the 2008 Seattle Mariners, who were the inaugural member of said club.

10) More detailed playoff predictions:

ALDS - Tigers over Red Sox in 3 / Yankees over Rangers in 4.
NLDS - D-Backs over Phillies in 5 / Brewers over Braves in 4.

ALCS - Tigers over Yankees in 6.
NLCS - D-Backs over Brewers in 7.

World Series - Tigers over D-Backs in 4.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 2

Well, we had a few surprises in Week 1, but that's to be expected... it is the first week of the year, after all.

My Week 1 picks give me a starting record of 10-6.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Oakland (1-0) @ Buffalo (1-0)
Chicago (1-0) @ New Orleans (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Kansas City (0-1) @ Detroit (1-0)
Green Bay (1-0) @ Carolina (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Tennessee (0-1)
Tampa Bay (0-1) @ Minnesota (0-1)
Jacksonville (1-0) @ NY Jets (1-0)
Arizona (1-0) @ Washington (1-0)
Seattle (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)

Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Dallas (0-1) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Cincinnati (1-0) @ Denver (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Miami (0-1)
San Diego (1-0) @ New England (1-0)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (1-0) @ Atlanta (0-1)

Monday Night -
St. Louis (0-1) @ NY Giants (0-1)

Based on one week of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.

Some tough calls, some easy calls, as I see it.  I think it's safe to say that Indianapolis is a shadow of itself without Peyton Manning, which speaks to his greatness... he's the lynchpin of that team and without him, well... we all saw.  I think Green Bay and Baltimore are the best teams in the league right now.  Pittsburgh will lick its wounds on Seattle, which should establish the tradition of West Coast Teams Traveling East And Laying An Egg as we have every year (same rule for Buffalo over Oakland).  Cincy/Denver is a tough call... Denver looked awful against Oakland; their defense looks much improved though, but that offensive line and running game... bad.  But I like them at home against Cincy.  Oakland will be a good test for Buffalo to see if Week 1 was a mirage or a truth for them.  Detroit should dismantle a hurting Kansas City secondary, but we'll see - no reason to get overconfident there yet.  Will Minnesota have more than 40 yards passing this week?  We'll see, but I think the Bucs are the better team.  I thought Chad Henne had a great game against New England; possible upset there for Miami over Houston, but I'm not sold yet.  Arizona and Washington provide good tests for each other's Week 1 success, too...

The Sunday Night game should be a good one - Atlanta got embarrassed by what I think is an inferior Bears team; how will they respond at home against the hot-to-trot Eagles?  The Monday Night game proves to be less exciting, with a lackluster-looking Giants and the up-and-coming Rams, but the Rams have a dinged up Sam Bradford and an injured Steven Jackson... will Cadillac Williams light up Monday Night Football?  We'll see.

So much for my Kansas City survival pick last week... but I stand by my Week 1 logic of taking teams who need the win.  KC's season is in flux after that devastation.  For this week, depending on who you want to save or not, I like Pittsburgh for sure over Seattle, followed by Detroit or NY Jets.  If you want to be daring, Tampa Bay is a good pick - they need to, and should, beat Minnesota.  Take note that of my four potential survival picks last week, three of four panned out.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 1

We're back!  We have an NFL season and we will have a second consecutive year of Pierce's Picks, published online (truly, this is probably the fourth or fifth year in a row I've done this).

For the 2010 season, I finished with my picks at 161-95, approximately a 63% success rate, which was about the equivalent of a 10-6 average each week.  I went 7-4 in the playoffs, including correctly predicting the Green Bay victory.  We'll see how I do this season!

Like last year, my winning picks will be highlighted in gold.  I'll run through all of my picks and some weeks include some thoughts or notes or justifications below.

Thursday Night -
New Orleans (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
Detroit (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Tennessee (0-0) @ Jacksonville (0-0)
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ St. Louis (0-0)
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)

Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Minnesota (0-0) @ San Diego (0-0)
NY Giants (0-0) @ Washington (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ San Francisco (0-0)

Sunday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)

Monday Night -
New England (0-0) @ Miami (0-0)
Oakland (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)

I'm not sure why everyone is hyped on New Orleans... I guess I'll find out, but I think Green Bay is still better, and that starts now.  Kansas City has to beat Buffalo, with or without Matt Cassel, that's the kind of loss that puts a downer on your whole season.  Likewise, Houston has to beat Indianapolis - they're at home, and besides that, Peyton Manning either won't play or will be playing with no preseason and a bit rusty.  If Houston can't beat a wounded Colts team, they can give up hope now.  I thought Jacksonville was a lock on Tennessee, but with the release of David Garrard, who knows... they're such similar teams, with elite RBs and questionable QB situations and WRs.  Tough call, but I'll take the Tennessee WR corps and defense over Jacksonville's for now.  The Detroit and Tampa game is a great game to see which team's youth movement is ready to push the envelope going forward: both teams are looking great and should expect good things, it's a bigger early-season test for both than people realize.

If you're looking for survival league advice, I'd suggest Houston, Kansas City, San Diego or Arizona.  Personally, I'm going with Kansas City.