Thursday, September 22, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 3

This whole thing about faking injuries to slow down games is really amusing to me.  Is it news to the NFL that this happens?  It's seemed obvious to me for years... as a result, I've come to believe that the "penalty" for an injured player is too easy - if a player is injured and requires an injury timeout, they're forced to miss the next play.  If they're okay, they can come back.  One play?  Seems a pretty minor thing to lose a DL or DB for if the offense is killing you with a no-huddle.  Heck, depending on your defensive package rotation, you could time it so that player isn't needed next play anyway.  The NFL is now up in arms about the Giants possibly faking injuries in last week's Monday Night game.  Their solution would be to look at handing out fines.  Big deal.  Who cares?  If they want to stop injury fakers, the solution is simple and obvious: change the "penalty" for it.  If a player requires an injury timeout, change the rule so that injured players have to sit out the rest of the drive.  That's reasonable, to better assess injury and a player's condition, and it also will prevent players from faking injuries, because one play might not mean much, but losing a player for a drive can result in points.  Makes sense, right?

Anyway, onto the picks.

Last week, I went a stunning 14-2, whiffing only on the Ravens and the Eagles.  The Ravens were a legit upset - in the other game, I disobeyed one of the obvious rules of pick 'em the past couple years: always take Matty Ice in the Georgia Dome.  Oops.  Guess I was too high on the Eagles.

That puts me at 24-8 on the season so far.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New England (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
San Francisco (1-1) @ Cincinnati (1-1)
Miami (0-2) @ Cleveland (1-1)
Denver (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-1)
Detroit (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
Houston (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
NY Giants (1-1) @ Philadelphia (1-1)
Jacksonville (1-1) @ Carolina (0-2)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (0-2) @ San Diego (1-1)
NY Jets (2-0) @ Oakland (1-1)
Baltimore (1-1) @ St. Louis (0-2)
Atlanta (1-1) @ Tampa Bay (1-1)
Green Bay (2-0) @ Chicago (1-1)
Arizona (1-1) @ Seattle (0-2)

Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (1-1) @ Indianapolis (0-2)

Monday Night -
Washington (2-0) @ Dallas (1-1)

Based on two weeks of play, right now I would predict Detroit over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.

Some tough picks this week; I think Houston/New Orleans could really go either way... just who plays better defense.  I think Buffalo could legitimately upset New England, since the Patriots are playing awful defense, but give the edge to the Pats... but how the Bills play will say a lot about that team.  Tampa could upset Atlanta too; that game is in Tampa, after all.  Carolina/Jacksonville will see Gabbert vs. Newton - I think Carolina is the better team with the better rookie at QB.  Could St. Louis upset Baltimore?  Wouldn't shock me.  Tennessee should beat Denver, in theory, but I think both are bad teams.  I like Miami over Cleveland - that's a must win for Miami or their season goes into tailspin and Cleveland couldn't beat Cincinnati.  Speaking of which, Cincy over San Francisco.  I like that pick.  I have almost zero faith in the NFC West again.

Hey, remember when Pittsburgh/Indy looked like a really good game?  Right, not anymore... and I think Washington pulls an upset on Dallas.  With no Tony Romo, that suddenly better-than-advertised Washington defense will control the game.

On a sidenote, I think the Colts need to blow this season and win the Andrew Luck lottery.  What a home run it would be for them to bring in Luck in the twilight of Manning's career and let him sit for a year or two behind one of this generation's best.  Luck is almost pro-ready anyway; if that situation were to play out, he'd end up in a great position.  But one thing is true of the Colts, which I've thought for awhile - they need Peyton to function.  The Colts could continue a line of great stability at the position if they were able to pull off something like that.

For survival picks this week, I'd avoid the Lions - only because history is against them and I'm not 100% sold on the team yet.  I want to be; but Tampa beat themselves and Kansas City is reeling.  If they can lay out the Vikings in the 'Dome, then we'll know they're probably for real, but I won't believe it til mid-season - after all, remember in 2007 when they started out 6-2, yet bombed out for a 7-9 finish before they went 0-16.  Nonetheless, if the Lions go 4-0 entering their home Monday Night game and win that one, I'll be convinced.

Real survival picks I like this week would be - Pittsburgh as a duh, no-brainer.  And given how old that team is looking in places, this is a good week to use them.  Carolina is feasible if you want to gamble, and since you'd probably never use them later.  San Diego is a lock, and I'd also go with Cincinnati (another team you're unlikely to use later) or Tennessee, for the same reason.  You could use Baltimore, but that game gives me a bad feeling and that's a team that, if they're for real, you'll want to have later on.

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