The Lions stand at 7-4 after Thanksgiving, with some tough games and some not-so-tough games yet on the schedule. It still seems realistic, if not likely, that they'll hit my projected 10-6 mark and have a shot at an NFC Wild Card playoff spot. They're a good team for the first time in a decade, a team that should have a winning record every year and should be in playoff contention. But when I watch them play good teams, it becomes evident to me that there's yet a gulf between the Lions and the way playoff-winning teams look.
That's okay. A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time. I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half. But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.
The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen. You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early. I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart. To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive. In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB. Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything. That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.
The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving. First is the penalties. They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up. At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have. If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers. Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely. As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert. When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers. They need to clean up the penalties. Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.
The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync. It's not. Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue. After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way. Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had. They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later. Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game. Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having. Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.
Third - Ndamukong Suh. I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique. Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well. He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength. This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders. The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact. On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff. Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.
But I can no longer defend Suh. Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away. On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line. It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play. He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team. A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.
Suh deserved to get ejected. That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator. And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned. Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs. I like that fiery attitude. I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off. Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see. And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem. The NFL should suspend Suh. I expect that to happen. I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh. I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too." It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him. I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.
Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted. I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression. As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world? Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it. It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player. Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it. He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that. But the Detroit Lions need to step up here. Suh is one of the faces of the team. It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation. The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it. They should. At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving!
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 11
Ouch. 5-11 last week.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 10
I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 9
Last week was 9-4, putting me at 79-37 on the season thusfar.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
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