I went 2-2 again, putting me at 4-4 so far for the playoffs.
I knew I should have picked the Giants last week - Green Bay felt too much like a Peyton Manning Classic Colts team that rested their starters on Week 17 and then would lose in the second round because everyone was rusty and out-of-sync. Like 'em or not, Belicheck and his Patriots have always had the right idea insofar as playing every down. Still not sure why their starters were on the field in the fourth quarter last week, though.
Amazing how far Houston pressed Baltimore, especially with T.J. Yates finally playing like a rookie - he wasn't awful, but he wasn't great, definitely not good enough for the playoffs that game. What promise that young guy shows, though. Hard to think the Texans keep him and Matt Leinart after this season. I feel like Houston was the team to win it all if they'd been healthy - they got this far with their 1st/2nd-string QBs down for the last few weeks and with Mario Williams out. This is the best team in the AFC, folks... they just caught some bad breaks this year. Watch out next season.
That San Francisco/New Orleans game was the most exciting of the year so far.
Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Baltimore (2-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
This smells like the 49ers/Saints game. Given, the home-field advantage is reversed. But still. Who really expects Baltimore to win this one? Flacco had a so-so game and the offense looked out of sync last week. But they survived and that defense looks geared up. I feel like the tough Houston matchup has people doubting the Ravens whereas the soft Broncos matchup has people high on the Patriots. The Ravens are 7-0 against playoff teams this season; New England hasn't beaten a team with a winning record. I think Baltimore brings it when it counts. Even in this year of wacky offense, it's clear - defense wins championships.
Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
And that brings us to this matchup, of what has been the two best defenses in the NFC in the latter part of the season. The Giants are riding a huge streak of playing quality football, for about five straight weeks now, basically since that ugly 23-10 loss to the Redskins. San Francisco, though, has been the most consistent team in the entire league, week-in and week-out. They come to play and that team just looks special this year. I like the Giants and they definitely have some of that Super Bowl XLII magic going for them this year - who isn't flashing back to that team as they watch the 2011 Giants in the playoffs? - but I feel like consistency is the key here. Alex Smith showed us his gusto last week and I feel like home-field advantage helps the 49ers here. That crowd is going to be stoked. I still can't quite put faith fully into the Giants - they pounded a Falcons team that was predictably hapless outdoors and a Green Bay team that doesn't play defense. The 49ers beat the Saints. The 49ers will beat the Giants.
Yes. I am predicting the SUPER HARBAUGH BOWL. Although a Super Bowl XLII rematch would be fun, but far less engrossing to me, to be honest. Seen it. It'd be fun, but, seen it. The only way that'd be fun is if we watched the Patriots lose a gut-wrencher again. I want to see the first Super Bowl between brothers.
In other news -
Peyton Manning can't remain a Colt. I'd be shocked if he does and I think it'd be a terrible move by the new GM if he did. New GM? Bring in the new coach, bring in a new QB. Learn from Green Bay and part ways with your veteran once you're rebuilding; learn from Detroit and bring in a new front office, new coach, and new QB all together. As for where Peyton goes? Tough call. I saw a write-up by one of the Grantland writers that basically said the 49ers were the most logical choice - they'd dominate the NFC for the rest of his career and could build the rest of the team in that time, while grooming a QB-of-the-future. That makes the most sense to me, but if the 49ers win the Super Bowl, why not stay with Alex Smith? He certainly proved himself against the Saints. I think if Baltimore flares out because Joe Flacco falters, that's a logical option, too. If you're a Ravens fan, you've gotta be holding your breath half the time the game rides on Flacco's shoulders, even if his statistics come out good. I have trouble seeing Peyton as a Jet - the very character of that team seems contrary to his personality; but besides that, it's also a logical fit. Plus he'd get to play Tom Brady twice a year for awhile yet. Beyond that, it's hard to find playoff-caliber teams with that gaping of a need at QB and it's hard to imagine Peyton going to a rebuilding team for his twilight years. If you go that route, Arizona makes sense and Ken Whisenhunt might like to have a veteran QB come in and save his job next year. Or who knows, Peyton might retire. No one really talks about that, but the guy's had three neck surgeries in two years and already has a Super Bowl ring. He might be content with what he's got. We'll see.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Friday, January 13, 2012
Pierce's Picks - NFL Divisional Championship Weekend
I went 2-2 last week, missing on New Orleans and Denver.
You may notice as you look at this week's slate of games that last week, all four Wild Card teams were eliminated. Home teams went 4-0 last week. Will it happen again? History says the divisional round is the most lopsided in favor of the home team (check the stats, really).
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (3-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
I feel like New Orleans is the team to beat right now in the NFC. Say what you want about the Packers, but is any team playing offense as well as the Saints? The Packers might be the most dynamic offense, but the Saints are becoming the most efficient. Shut down the run and they'll smoke you through the air. Take away their deep routes and they'll gash you short and with the run. They look indomitable. But the common maxim has always been that defense wins championships. That theory is put to the test in this game - the better offense or the better defense? I'm taking the Saints' offense, and a defense that's just good enough.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Denver (4-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
Tim vs. Tom. Denver's win last week was improbable and came against a battered Pittsburgh defense - make no mistake; Ike Taylor is not a great CB and the Steelers were playing all backups on their D-line. However, Pittsburgh's second-string defense is probably better than New England's first-string. But the Patriots offense, if it gets going, can shred Denver's defense. The onus of this game really falls on Denver's defense: can they make Brady uncomfortable and knock him off his rhythm? If yes, they have a chance. If not, then they'll get eviscerated again. If Tebow plays like he did last week and the Denver defense can tee off on Brady, Denver wins. But I don't think both of those things happen. Patriots roll, but it won't be as lopsided as their last meeting.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Houston (3-seed) @ Baltimore (2-seed)
I expect our AFC Super Bowl representative to be this game's winner. This will be a nasty game, a black-and-blue game, with the two best running backs in the game leading their teams. Arian Foster and Ray Rice are absolute beasts. Both teams play marvelous defense. It's going to come down to which quarterback stays cool under pressure and can make the tough throw in the clutch. I think Houston's ability to spell Foster with Ben Tate is an advantage for them, but I think Baltimore gets a big advantage with playoff-tested Joe Flacco, as opposed to T.J. Yates. Houston could pull this off. But I think they're a young team, new to the playoffs, going up against an experienced team on their turf. Veteran savvy of guys like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will lead the defense; the poise of Joe Flacco will be the difference between the two teams on offense. Baltimore will win a close, hard-fought game.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ Green Bay (1-seed)
The Giants have suddenly played three remarkable games in a row. In the regular season, we're bracing for the inevitable "how'd they lose that one" game. In the playoffs, well, 2007 taught us anything is possible. The Giants defense is meshing at the right time; they crushed Atlanta. The defensive line might be the best in the playoffs right now. If Kansas City can beat Green Bay, anyone can, and the G-Men are no strangers to playing in the cold. It's a lot like the Denver/New England game - if they can get pressure on Rodgers and Eli doesn't make mistakes, they win. And Rodgers hasn't played in three weeks, since McCarthy gave him Week 17 off. I've seen teams struggle after resting starters on Week 17, but I don't think that happens to Green Bay. Rodgers has been playing out of his mind and for them to lose their first playoff game this season would be a resounding disappointment. I think the Giants have a great chance at an upset here, but I don't see it happening.
You may notice as you look at this week's slate of games that last week, all four Wild Card teams were eliminated. Home teams went 4-0 last week. Will it happen again? History says the divisional round is the most lopsided in favor of the home team (check the stats, really).
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (3-seed) @ San Francisco (2-seed)
I feel like New Orleans is the team to beat right now in the NFC. Say what you want about the Packers, but is any team playing offense as well as the Saints? The Packers might be the most dynamic offense, but the Saints are becoming the most efficient. Shut down the run and they'll smoke you through the air. Take away their deep routes and they'll gash you short and with the run. They look indomitable. But the common maxim has always been that defense wins championships. That theory is put to the test in this game - the better offense or the better defense? I'm taking the Saints' offense, and a defense that's just good enough.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Denver (4-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
Tim vs. Tom. Denver's win last week was improbable and came against a battered Pittsburgh defense - make no mistake; Ike Taylor is not a great CB and the Steelers were playing all backups on their D-line. However, Pittsburgh's second-string defense is probably better than New England's first-string. But the Patriots offense, if it gets going, can shred Denver's defense. The onus of this game really falls on Denver's defense: can they make Brady uncomfortable and knock him off his rhythm? If yes, they have a chance. If not, then they'll get eviscerated again. If Tebow plays like he did last week and the Denver defense can tee off on Brady, Denver wins. But I don't think both of those things happen. Patriots roll, but it won't be as lopsided as their last meeting.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Houston (3-seed) @ Baltimore (2-seed)
I expect our AFC Super Bowl representative to be this game's winner. This will be a nasty game, a black-and-blue game, with the two best running backs in the game leading their teams. Arian Foster and Ray Rice are absolute beasts. Both teams play marvelous defense. It's going to come down to which quarterback stays cool under pressure and can make the tough throw in the clutch. I think Houston's ability to spell Foster with Ben Tate is an advantage for them, but I think Baltimore gets a big advantage with playoff-tested Joe Flacco, as opposed to T.J. Yates. Houston could pull this off. But I think they're a young team, new to the playoffs, going up against an experienced team on their turf. Veteran savvy of guys like Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs will lead the defense; the poise of Joe Flacco will be the difference between the two teams on offense. Baltimore will win a close, hard-fought game.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Giants (4-seed) @ Green Bay (1-seed)
The Giants have suddenly played three remarkable games in a row. In the regular season, we're bracing for the inevitable "how'd they lose that one" game. In the playoffs, well, 2007 taught us anything is possible. The Giants defense is meshing at the right time; they crushed Atlanta. The defensive line might be the best in the playoffs right now. If Kansas City can beat Green Bay, anyone can, and the G-Men are no strangers to playing in the cold. It's a lot like the Denver/New England game - if they can get pressure on Rodgers and Eli doesn't make mistakes, they win. And Rodgers hasn't played in three weeks, since McCarthy gave him Week 17 off. I've seen teams struggle after resting starters on Week 17, but I don't think that happens to Green Bay. Rodgers has been playing out of his mind and for them to lose their first playoff game this season would be a resounding disappointment. I think the Giants have a great chance at an upset here, but I don't see it happening.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Pierce's Picks - NFL Wild Card Weekend
After a 159-97 season record for me, it's time to look ahead to the matchups this weekend and see how the NFL playoffs will unfold. I'll give more talk per game in the playoffs than I do during the season.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Cincinnati (6-seed) @ Houston (3-seed)
Both teams stumbled into the playoffs, so neither really has a lot of momentum going on. Houston might start Jake Delhomme at QB if T.J. Yates can't go, but word lately is that Yates will be fine. Still, their options are either the late-round rookie who looked unflappable at first but then began to wilt slightly, or a guy whose last playoff performance was an epic disaster. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to step up, along with Houston's defense, to win here. For Cincinnati, they can't underestimate this game. In fact, it should play a lot like a game against Pittsburgh or Baltimore for them - tough defense and a lot of running the ball. The problem? They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They lost to Houston, as well, surrendering a last-second TD. While I think losing to a team and then playing them again later can offer some benefits insofar as game-planning goes, I don't think Cincinnati has the weapons, the experience, or the hunger yet to keep up with the Texans or anyone else in the AFC playoff field. They'll be a better, more-prepared team next year, but they're not going anywhere else this year.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Detroit (6-seed) @ New Orleans (3-seed)
Make no mistake - this is the game of the weekend. Two 5,000-yard passers facing off for the first time in NFL history, leading two dynamic (yet very different) offenses. The Lions played the Saints after Thanksgiving and lost 31-17, something the sports pundits are going on about. The Saints are also playing their best football of the season right now. I don't think either team is overlooking each other. The Lions kept it close in December until penalties derailed them; and that was with their best safety, cornerback and running back out. Those men - Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Kevin Smith - are all ready for this game. If the Lions can play solid, mistake-free ball and not make dumb penalties at dumb times, this is a winnable game for them. For the Saints, they need to blitz Stafford and get him off his rhythm - his numbers with a pass-rush of 5+ are lower than standard, but you have to think the Lions prepared for that this week. Still, the Saints blitz better than anyone right now. Otherwise, the Saints just need to roll on as they have been lately. Still, something about this game screams trap to me - everything seems to favor the Saints and in a playoff atmosphere, with so much on the line, against a team that's young and hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder, you just never know what can happen. My football brain says Saints, but my gut says Lions and my heart bleeds Honolulu Blue & Silver - so I think the Lions bring it this week and stun the Saints at home.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (5-seed) @ NY Giants (4-seed)
This is a tough matchup to pick. The Giants tend to play a horrible game after playing one or two great ones; I'm waiting for that pattern to kick in. Atlanta does the same, losing inexplicably at times. Both QBs are good, but not great; both can have elite games and both can be mistake-prone. Both teams have run-games that get the job done, but aren't as explosive as you might want. Both teams feature solid defenses. Earlier in the week, I thought about picking Atlanta, but really, the Falcons haven't shown me anything lately. The Giants, however, are rolling. It's not always pretty, but they get it done. Beyond that, I think the Giants have the key to this game - their pass-rush. It's the one particular area that I think these teams are strikingly different and I think it makes the big difference, especially when coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan's record is much better indoors than it is outside. Eli's experience and familiarity playing outside trumps Ryan's. Giants advance.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Pittsburgh (5-seed) @ Denver (4-seed)
Where to begin? What to say? The Tim Tebow delusion has come crashing to reality over the last two weeks - against Buffalo and Kansas City. I doubt the gritty Steelers defense will be any more merciful to the young QB. This is the most lop-sided, most obvious matchup of the playoffs to me. Denver has a couple advantages - Big Ben's lack of health in his foot and that they're at home, playing at Mile High, which is often something opponents have to adapt to due to the thinner air (Ryan Clark will be inactive for the game, for example, due to his asthma combined with the thin air). I don't expect the Tim Tebow Option offense to work against Pittsburgh. This is a savvy, nasty, veteran defense. There's enough tape out there of Tebow now that teams are figuring him out and truly exposing him. While Denver's defense has been very good this season, they won't be able to hold the Steelers low enough to keep it close, especially if Tebow offers up a number of turnovers as he has lately. The talent gap and experience gap between these two teams is gigantic and based on recent play, I find it impossible to think that a team that lost its last 3, yet won its division with an 8-8 record, goes anywhere in the playoffs.
--
Yes, I know. I talk about talent gap and experience gap and use that as a factor to count out Cincinnati and Denver, yet not Detroit. Fair enough, calling me out on that. But look closely. I think the talent gap between Detroit and New Orleans is smaller than people observe. The primary difference between them is that Detroit's running game isn't there. Otherwise, they're relatively comparable across the board. Statistically, the Saints are a weaker pass defense than the Lions, but a better run defense. Both are top-5 passing teams, but the Saints run the ball effectively. Both utilize the tight-end position well and are fine using short dump-offs to the tight end or screens to the running back as a supplemental running game. The difference on defense is that the Saints blitz more, whereas the Lions typically stick to the 4-man rush, due to their ability to rotate out D-linemen throughout the game. That's the other key - the Lions need to generate pressure with their 4-man rush (didn't happen in the loss) or get sliced apart; they also need to pickup the Saints' blitz, or Stafford needs to be making some good pre-snap reads to identify single-coverage and get the ball out fast. If the Lions are prepared, the Saints' blitzing ways could hurt them.
The Saints are Super Bowl winners. They have experience. The Lions only have six players who have played in a playoff game. Why isn't that a big deal to me? Well, we'll see. The way it'll manifest negatively is if the Lions lose their cool like they did against Green Bay and New Orleans earlier this season. Schwartz has re-emphasized discipline since then and the best example of it came in the 38-10 decimation of San Diego - a game in which the Lions committed 3 penalties for 8 yards, with all 3 coming at inconsequential moments. If they can do that against the Saints, the game will stay close - it only got out of hand in December due to horrendous post-whistle personal fouls and other such chippy behavior. I think they remember that game. I think it's fuel now. That loss, on national TV, hurt and showed a Lions team that wasn't ready for the spotlight. You can't tell me that isn't on their mind now, waiting for Saturday night to roll around, thinking, "We'll show 'em we're ready now." I think they are.
Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Cincinnati (6-seed) @ Houston (3-seed)
Both teams stumbled into the playoffs, so neither really has a lot of momentum going on. Houston might start Jake Delhomme at QB if T.J. Yates can't go, but word lately is that Yates will be fine. Still, their options are either the late-round rookie who looked unflappable at first but then began to wilt slightly, or a guy whose last playoff performance was an epic disaster. Arian Foster and Ben Tate will have to step up, along with Houston's defense, to win here. For Cincinnati, they can't underestimate this game. In fact, it should play a lot like a game against Pittsburgh or Baltimore for them - tough defense and a lot of running the ball. The problem? They went 0-4 against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They lost to Houston, as well, surrendering a last-second TD. While I think losing to a team and then playing them again later can offer some benefits insofar as game-planning goes, I don't think Cincinnati has the weapons, the experience, or the hunger yet to keep up with the Texans or anyone else in the AFC playoff field. They'll be a better, more-prepared team next year, but they're not going anywhere else this year.
Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Detroit (6-seed) @ New Orleans (3-seed)
Make no mistake - this is the game of the weekend. Two 5,000-yard passers facing off for the first time in NFL history, leading two dynamic (yet very different) offenses. The Lions played the Saints after Thanksgiving and lost 31-17, something the sports pundits are going on about. The Saints are also playing their best football of the season right now. I don't think either team is overlooking each other. The Lions kept it close in December until penalties derailed them; and that was with their best safety, cornerback and running back out. Those men - Louis Delmas, Chris Houston, and Kevin Smith - are all ready for this game. If the Lions can play solid, mistake-free ball and not make dumb penalties at dumb times, this is a winnable game for them. For the Saints, they need to blitz Stafford and get him off his rhythm - his numbers with a pass-rush of 5+ are lower than standard, but you have to think the Lions prepared for that this week. Still, the Saints blitz better than anyone right now. Otherwise, the Saints just need to roll on as they have been lately. Still, something about this game screams trap to me - everything seems to favor the Saints and in a playoff atmosphere, with so much on the line, against a team that's young and hungry and playing with a chip on its shoulder, you just never know what can happen. My football brain says Saints, but my gut says Lions and my heart bleeds Honolulu Blue & Silver - so I think the Lions bring it this week and stun the Saints at home.
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (5-seed) @ NY Giants (4-seed)
This is a tough matchup to pick. The Giants tend to play a horrible game after playing one or two great ones; I'm waiting for that pattern to kick in. Atlanta does the same, losing inexplicably at times. Both QBs are good, but not great; both can have elite games and both can be mistake-prone. Both teams have run-games that get the job done, but aren't as explosive as you might want. Both teams feature solid defenses. Earlier in the week, I thought about picking Atlanta, but really, the Falcons haven't shown me anything lately. The Giants, however, are rolling. It's not always pretty, but they get it done. Beyond that, I think the Giants have the key to this game - their pass-rush. It's the one particular area that I think these teams are strikingly different and I think it makes the big difference, especially when coupled with the fact that Matt Ryan's record is much better indoors than it is outside. Eli's experience and familiarity playing outside trumps Ryan's. Giants advance.
Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Pittsburgh (5-seed) @ Denver (4-seed)
Where to begin? What to say? The Tim Tebow delusion has come crashing to reality over the last two weeks - against Buffalo and Kansas City. I doubt the gritty Steelers defense will be any more merciful to the young QB. This is the most lop-sided, most obvious matchup of the playoffs to me. Denver has a couple advantages - Big Ben's lack of health in his foot and that they're at home, playing at Mile High, which is often something opponents have to adapt to due to the thinner air (Ryan Clark will be inactive for the game, for example, due to his asthma combined with the thin air). I don't expect the Tim Tebow Option offense to work against Pittsburgh. This is a savvy, nasty, veteran defense. There's enough tape out there of Tebow now that teams are figuring him out and truly exposing him. While Denver's defense has been very good this season, they won't be able to hold the Steelers low enough to keep it close, especially if Tebow offers up a number of turnovers as he has lately. The talent gap and experience gap between these two teams is gigantic and based on recent play, I find it impossible to think that a team that lost its last 3, yet won its division with an 8-8 record, goes anywhere in the playoffs.
--
Yes, I know. I talk about talent gap and experience gap and use that as a factor to count out Cincinnati and Denver, yet not Detroit. Fair enough, calling me out on that. But look closely. I think the talent gap between Detroit and New Orleans is smaller than people observe. The primary difference between them is that Detroit's running game isn't there. Otherwise, they're relatively comparable across the board. Statistically, the Saints are a weaker pass defense than the Lions, but a better run defense. Both are top-5 passing teams, but the Saints run the ball effectively. Both utilize the tight-end position well and are fine using short dump-offs to the tight end or screens to the running back as a supplemental running game. The difference on defense is that the Saints blitz more, whereas the Lions typically stick to the 4-man rush, due to their ability to rotate out D-linemen throughout the game. That's the other key - the Lions need to generate pressure with their 4-man rush (didn't happen in the loss) or get sliced apart; they also need to pickup the Saints' blitz, or Stafford needs to be making some good pre-snap reads to identify single-coverage and get the ball out fast. If the Lions are prepared, the Saints' blitzing ways could hurt them.
The Saints are Super Bowl winners. They have experience. The Lions only have six players who have played in a playoff game. Why isn't that a big deal to me? Well, we'll see. The way it'll manifest negatively is if the Lions lose their cool like they did against Green Bay and New Orleans earlier this season. Schwartz has re-emphasized discipline since then and the best example of it came in the 38-10 decimation of San Diego - a game in which the Lions committed 3 penalties for 8 yards, with all 3 coming at inconsequential moments. If they can do that against the Saints, the game will stay close - it only got out of hand in December due to horrendous post-whistle personal fouls and other such chippy behavior. I think they remember that game. I think it's fuel now. That loss, on national TV, hurt and showed a Lions team that wasn't ready for the spotlight. You can't tell me that isn't on their mind now, waiting for Saturday night to roll around, thinking, "We'll show 'em we're ready now." I think they are.
Monday, January 2, 2012
2011 NFL Season in Review
Week 17 saw me go 10-6, putting my season finish at 159-97. That's two games below last season, but still a 62% winning percentage and equivalent to a 10-6 average, approximately.
The playoff board is set, but I'll discuss that later this week. For today, the year in review and my choices for award winners.
Feel-good teams of the year -
How can we not sit back and applaud for the Lions, Texans and 49ers? All had playoff-droughts of almost, or longer, than a decade and all three charged into the playoffs this season. The Lions may have a 6-seed, but they owned it before Week 17. The 49ers and Texans both locked up their divisions with three weeks (or more, for the 49ers) to play. Cincinnati gets an honorable mention here, too, not only for making the playoffs, but parting ways with Carson Palmer and receiving a king's ransom of picks for a guy who really didn't play that well.
Mystifying collapses of the year -
This has to go to Dallas and Tampa Bay. Dallas let game after game slip away - in fact, NBC ran a stat during the game last night that the Cowboys have lost 8 games under Jason Garrett with the lead at the start of the 4th quarter! That's crazy. This team had every opportunity to put up and shut up and win a division and they failed, including a win-and-you're-in game in Week 17 that they came out totally flat for. As for Tampa Bay, I don't even know how that team collapsed so far so fast. They looked uninspired and flat all season long. At the start of the year, I predicted either Detroit or Tampa (last year's hot young teams-to-be) would falter and the other would make the playoffs, but I had no idea Tampa would fall so far. Honorable mention to St. Louis, who looked poised for a competitive year, but also came out looking terrible. Their biggest change was acquiring new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels (former offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur took the head coaching job in Cleveland) and it was their offense that turned out to be entirely putrid. Indianapolis doesn't count here because everyone should have known that team was not set up to survive without Peyton Manning.
Most disappointing division -
The NFC East sucks. They fostered the only NFC playoff team with less than 10 wins when most people (including yours truly) expected a tightly fought division with at least one Wild Card team coming from it. Instead, you had Dallas handing away games all year long; you had Philadelphia playing bad fundamentals; you had Washington being a classic Mike Shanahan team, post-Elway. The Redskins started out 3-0 and looked set to go until Shanahan benched Rex Grossman indefinitely after one bad game. I felt that this eroded the locker room trust there and it probably didn't help when Shanahan started playing musical chairs at running back. The Eagles, well, you hand Michael Vick a ton of money long-term and promote your offensive line coach to defensive coordinator and... well, this is what you get. Someone let me know when Vick plays all 16 games of a season. The Giants won this division by default, not so much because they ran away with it. They dropped winnable games throughout the season, but managed to take it because other teams failed along the way (Dallas had a great shot to win the division, but likewise lost critical games late in the year).
Peaking at the right time -
The Saints looked wobbly all year long, including stunning losses to St. Louis and Tampa Bay, but they appear to have their act together at the right time. They've torched the end of the season and seem the most ready for a playoff run of all twelve teams remaining. The limelight has moved a little bit away from the Packers since their loss and is a little more on the red-hot Saints as the playoff starts. I would also argue that the Lions look pretty scary after their rout of the Chargers and a high-flying game at Lambeau. Even though they lost at Lambeau, I have to believe - and hope - that they played relatively vanilla defensive schemes with their playoff hopes locked up. After all, a rematch would be in the books if they beat New Orleans - and if that's the case, showing Green Bay one thing in Week 17, then something else the next time they play (it'd be consecutive games against the same opponent for Green Bay) is advantageous to the Lions. Don't let their Week 17 loss fool you - the talking sports heads out there get all riled up, but the difference between the #5/6 seeds is nil; one might get you a cushy matchup in the first week of the playoffs, but I don't think Schwartz's Lions are worried about that - they know they have to take on the big boys to win the big prize, so I don't think they're afraid of going to New Orleans instead of New York.
Where'd you come from?
Victor Cruz is not a Pro Bowler, which is a crime. He won't be in the running for rookie of the year, either, since it's not his rookie season (last year was, but he missed it all due to an injury suffered in the preseason). But this guy is electric. His first season as an NFL player saw him shatter the single-season receiving yardage record for the Giants (set previously by Amani Toomer). In fact, if not for the emergence of Cruz, the Giants aren't a playoff team. You're not hearing enough about this guy outside of New York and fantasy football.
Oh, that injury bug...
Chicago looked poised to take the 6-seed. I thought they would; they'd help the Lions to a 10-win season without a playoff berth, since if Chicago had won 10-games, they'd hold the tiebreaker (I believe). Instead, Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down and then Chicago collapsed around them, lacking the depth or talent to compete otherwise. With both men out of the lineup, Chicago's season ended 8-8, with their sole win coming against a terrible Minnesota team. And in that win? They saw Brian Urlacher sustain a devastating injury that's been reported as a sprain, but looked nothing like it. Even as a rival, I respect the longevity and tenacity of Brian Urlacher - but if that's a serious injury after all, you have to wonder if it's a career-ender. A Bears defense without him isn't the same (similar rules apply to Ray Lewis and Baltimore).
Coaches on the hotseat already fired -
Two have already been fired this morning: Raheem Morris in Tampa and Spagnuolo in St. Louis. I agree with the Tampa firing; if your entire team plays flat and uninspired, with no real drive, and goes from a great up-and-coming season to a complete 4-12 collapse, it's on the coach. I'm not so sure about Spagnuolo - his team still competed and still played solid defense, for the most part. His offense, however, never looked right and Sam Bradford clearly had trouble transitioning to his second offense in two years. That's sad, because Bradford looked great last year as a rookie. That responsibility falls on Josh McDaniels, who I felt should have borne the brunt of the blame for the Rams' failures this year. Assuming St. Louis keeps with Bradford, he'll have a new offense to learn for the third time in three years. Let this be a cautionary tale to everyone - no matter how sure a prospect a guy is, changing what's around him annually will stunt his growth. Sam Bradford runs a serious risk of following in the footsteps of Joey Harrington and David Carr as he goes into his second offseason. Quarterbacks who are often successful early on have continuity at offensive coordinator.
Coaches on the hotseat -
The players love him, but I have to wonder how Norv Turner keeps his job. San Diego collapsed again and played inefficient football for most of the season, again. Remember last year, they were top-5 in offense and defense, yet didn't make the playoffs. Norv has always had success as an offensive coordinator, and less so as a head coach. Might be time to move on. I have serious questions about Andy Reid, who has been the Eagles' coach forever, but has yet to deliver them the big prize. His teams almost always fall short somehow, like the hero of a Greek tragedy, who has a fatal flaw at the critical moment. He looked tired this year, detached, until his team spun off a 4 game winning stream to close things out, which probably saved his job. Likewise, Jason Garrett should be given a lot of scrutiny in Dallas. That team seems to lack heart when they need it most and 4th-quarter collapses fall on the coaches (for example, up by 3+ possessions against Detroit, why are you passing?). In Washington, I have to wonder how much longer the Mike Shanahan experiment will go on, when it is clear to everyone outside of Washington that it is a trainwreck so far. If the Colts part ways with Peyton Manning, I think they have every reason to do so with Jim Caldwell, as well. Caldwell inherited Dungy's team and won on his fumes for a couple years, but the team is in clear decline due to poor drafting (which falls on the Polians) and, quite frankly, Caldwell has often looked in above his head. I suspect that Peyton runs the offense himself (he'll make a good coach after he retires, mark my words). It doesn't help that their draft picks haven't been panning out lately, but with the aging defense as well... it seems like a logical time to clean house in Indianapolis and rebuild for the future, with a new quarterback, coach and GM.
Offensive Rookie of the Year -
Cam Newton, and it isn't even close. This is self-explanatory. The kid is the real deal, an absolute stud. He appears to have something all other dual-threat NFL QBs have lacked - durability to play that kind of game. He may be a one-of-a-kind talent; the durability and determination of Ben Roethlisberger, the raw talent and electricity of Michael Vick. More importantly, he takes care of the football. For a dual-threat quarterback to have only three fumbles is remarkable. He threw more TDs than picks and I expect, over time, he'll take better care of the ball in the air, too. Carolina has a bright future with Cam Newton.
Defensive Rookie of the Year -
Aldon Smith. It was Von Miller of Denver for a long time, but San Francisco was dominant all season long and while many attribute that to Jim Harbaugh (rightfully so, see below) and Alex Smith, Aldon Smith helped invigorate the already-solid defense led by Patrick Willis and give it teeth. His 14 sacks led rookies and he added 2 forced fumbles to that over the season. It's always hard to judge the value of individual defensive players, especially young ones, but you can make the argument that Smith helped his team win games and without his exceptional play, they wouldn't be enjoying a playoff bye week, at least.
Offensive Player of the Year -
Drew Brees. He didn't just break Marino's old passing record of 5,084 yards - he did that with one game left on the schedule. He obliterated it, finishing with 5,476 yards after his final game this season, and odds are that record will stand as long as Marino's did, if not longer. We'll look back on this season and gasp about Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers, about the year of quarterbacking that was. Brees led what might have been the most dynamic offense of the year, finishing with 46 TDs and 14 INTs.
Defensive Player of the Year -
This is tough. Jared Allen had 22 sacks for a 3-win team. London Fletcher had 166 tackles for a 5-win team. Kyle Arrington had 7 INTs for a porous New England defense. Eric Weddle, likewise, had 7 INTs, but on a team that didn't make the playoffs. Charles Woodson can make an argument with 7 INTs, 70+ tackles and a forced fumble, but Green Bay wasn't a remarkable defense, either (although, better than we think at first glance).
No. Looking over it, I think the defensive player of the year becomes evident. He played all 16 games this season and helped one of the league's best defenses overcome the absence of its best player for awhile. He finished the season with 70 tackles, 14 sacks, 7 forced fumbles and 2 INTs. I'm giving the award to Terrell Suggs of the Baltimore Ravens. At the end of the year this season, we weren't talking about the terror that is Ray Lewis - no, the man people were talking about in the same breath as the defense was Suggs, who wrecked havoc for Baltimore this season, helping lead them to the #2 seed and an AFC North championship. To press the point home, 3 of his sacks, 2 of his forced fumbles and 1 of his INTs came when the Ravens needed them most - against Pittsburgh.
Coach of the Year -
As much as I want to give this to Jim Schwartz, and as much as he deserves a "Coach of the last 3 years combined" award, it's just not going to happen. Jim Harbaugh gets it, for turning a lackluster 49ers team into a 13-3 division champion. Take a look at this - Harbaugh did it in the season after the lockout, getting only a month or so with his new team before the season started. He did it not by bringing in "his own guys" as many new coaches do, but by working with the personnel on hand. He guided Alex Smith to his best year as a starter after everyone had classified him as a bust, albeit a long-lived one. He did all of this with no NFL head coaching experience, coming fresh from the college ranks. A more impressive single first year on the job may not exist. There should be no debating this award this year.
Most Valuable Player -
Aaron Rodgers. While Matt Flynn's evisceration of the Lions on Week 17 may take away from this argument (I maintain my belief that they played a watered-down defense in a meaningless game), you have to realize that Rodgers had the best season on record for a quarterback and led his team to a 14-1 record. 4,643 yards and 45 TDs wasn't as electric as what Brees or Brady did this season, but they key number, the one that helped his team win more games, is his 6 INTs. That's incredibly low. Brady had 12; Brees 14. Rodgers did not lead the most dynamic offense in the league (although it is plenty dynamic); he led the most efficient, by far. And that's what a true MVP does - he wins games and doesn't make mistakes. He is irreplaceable to his team and Aaron Rodgers is just that. Brady and Brees may be to their teams as well, but when you look at the stat lines of everyone involved you have to think that, with no names attached, just stats, most people want Rodgers over the other two, because you see his 68% completion rate and his few INTs and you know that this man wins more games. He's more valuable. Congratulations, Mr. Rodgers.
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