Last week saw a repeat of 9-7, putting my season mark at 149-91.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 16
Almost there; two weeks left. Last week I went 9-7, putting my season at 140-82.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Week 15
Last week, I went 8-8, putting my season mark at 131-75.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 14
Last week saw me at 11-5 again, bumping my mark to 123-67.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
Friday, December 2, 2011
What sports can mean to a person...
Steve Yzerman returned to the Joe Louis Arena in Detroit this past week for a game in which his Tampa Bay Lightning faced off against the Detroit Red Wings. I caught the game on Versus, as I typically try to catch Red Wings games when they're on. You see, the Red Wings are the most important sports team there is to me.
I'm not sure why that is. We have the Red Wings, the Tigers, the Lions and the Pistons in Detroit. Professional basketball stopped appealing to me by the turn of the millennium and really, even before that, the Pistons were never a team I had my eye on - they often put up solid teams, but never a marquee guy you watched for - no Jordan or Ewing or Magic. And we got to see a lot of Jordan in Detroit. There really was no act in basketball in the '90s that compared. But that's another discussion for another day. The Tigers were decent - they had memorable guys like Cecil Fielder and remarkable guys like Lou Whittaker and Alan Trammel. But they didn't contend in the '90s like they did in the '80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders, who was to the NFL what Jordan was to the NBA. That might be an exaggeration, but it felt like it to Detroiters - and quite frankly, there's never been anyone like Barry. But the Lions were never particularly great, either.
Sometimes in sports, a team captures magic. You can feel it around them. I felt it with the Red Wings before anyone else and it's for that reason that the Wings are first and foremost in my heart. I'll remember the moment vividly for all my life - I'm sitting up as a kid, 12 or 13 years old, watching Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It's at Joe Louis. It's against the Philadelphia Flyers, who were favored to win the series, and yet, these young, upstart Red Wings have a 3-0 series lead and a 1-0 lead in the game in the second period. And Darren McCarty takes a pass at center ice. He pulls out a truly awesome deke on the Flyers' defenseman, then follows it up with another on All-Star goalie Ron Hextall, backhanding the puck into a virtually empty net. I remember being absolutely slack-jawed. It was a move you expected from Wayne Gretzky. McCarty was our enforcer - our resident beat-'em-up bad boy. He didn't score goals, at least not like that. And yet, there it was. And the Joe Louis Arena erupted. I'd never seen anything like it. The place went nuts. Right there, right then, that series ended and everyone knew it. The Red Wings knew it. The fans knew it. The Flyers knew it. The place rocked for the rest of the game. There was magic in it, magic I still see and feel when I see replays or videos of it now. It just coursed through the place. I knew, when that puck hit the net, when the Joe erupted, that my team was going to win it all. It wasn't the first Detroit sports championship of my lifetime, but it was the first I was actively cheering for; the first I was emotionally invested in.
A week later, Vladimir Konstantinov, a Red Wings defenseman, was in a car crash with a team masseuse and chauffeur. Konstantinov was paralyzed. It was a sobering moment for a city that was still celebrating. I remember it being a shock, as if a family member or, at least, a good friend had been hurt. I remember there being vigils. I remember the city pouring its heart out to a man whose only words in English had come through a translator. But he was one of ours. He was a Red Wing. When the season started, it was never spoken that I can recall, but it seemed like everyone knew... the Wings played knowing it, the fans seemed to know - we were going to win the Stanley Cup again, for Vladimir Konstantinov. We did. And when the buzzer went off and the game ended, who was wheeled onto the ice but Vladimir Konstantinov, in his jersey. And when Steve Yzerman handed the Cup off, it was to set it on Konstantinov's lap. The team surrounded him at that time, a moment that I have a photograph of, set onto a marble plaque that hangs in my office, because of what that meant. Because that's the kind of team the Red Wings are. It's the kind of city Detroit is. It's a big part of why I'll always hold the Red Wings a bit higher than the Tigers, Lions and Pistons. And sure, a long playoff-appearance streak helps. They're the winningest Detroit team of my life. But that's not my first thought. I think of guys who spend their careers in Detroit - Yzerman and Lidstrom, for example. I think of the Joe Louis Arena erupting, of the magic of that fateful McCarty goal. I think of Vladimir Konstantinov, on the ice in a wheelchair, the Stanley Cup on his lap and the Red Wings surrounding him. That's what I think of.
Sports are a trivial thing on the surface. Men battling each other to throw or hit an object into a larger receptacle for metaphysical points. On the surface, it doesn't mean a lot. And yet, somehow, these contests define entire cities, entire populations. People gravitate towards them. They bleed for the game. Fans weep tears of sorrow, tears of joy. Because sports go beyond the game itself, you know. It's about people, about relationships. It's about magic and destiny. It's about someone like Vladimir Konstantinov, paralyzed in a horrible accident, being on the ice for the celebration a year later. It's about Steve Yzerman playing his entire career as a Red Wing, being an icon to the city, growing up in front of the eyes of every Detroit hockey fan, from being a wide-eyed 19 year-old to growing up to be the face of the franchise, becoming a leader before our eyes. It's about watching a city's worth of people set aside multitudes of difference in favor of a single commonality - loyalty to a sports team.
Yzerman returned to Detroit this week. The Red Wings did him the honor of a brief video tribute during the first commercial break; the fans did him the honor of a deserved standing ovation. We love Steve Yzerman, or Stevie Y as we know him, in Detroit. Steve Yzerman, a good sport, came to the ice to wave to the crowd as it ended, to receive the honor. But he looked the slightest bit uncomfortable during it. But that's Stevie Y - he never hogged a spotlight. It was always about the team, always about the game. And for him, it still is, it always will be. It was an unavoidable event - a tribute to Yzerman on his first game back in Detroit after leaving. It was a formality on all sides; something the Red Wings were obligated to do, something that Yzerman knew would happen. He deserves every tribute, but he's not the kind of person who focuses on that or really cares; he's about the game, about his team, about getting points on that night. That attitude is his legacy, the one that builds champions, the one that earns these inconvenient tributes. In the era of the diva athlete, it's no wonder that Detroit loves Steve Yzerman, it's no wonder that we admire him and we love the Red Wings he helped build. He just went to work, did his job, and built something wonderful.
I'm not sure why that is. We have the Red Wings, the Tigers, the Lions and the Pistons in Detroit. Professional basketball stopped appealing to me by the turn of the millennium and really, even before that, the Pistons were never a team I had my eye on - they often put up solid teams, but never a marquee guy you watched for - no Jordan or Ewing or Magic. And we got to see a lot of Jordan in Detroit. There really was no act in basketball in the '90s that compared. But that's another discussion for another day. The Tigers were decent - they had memorable guys like Cecil Fielder and remarkable guys like Lou Whittaker and Alan Trammel. But they didn't contend in the '90s like they did in the '80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders, who was to the NFL what Jordan was to the NBA. That might be an exaggeration, but it felt like it to Detroiters - and quite frankly, there's never been anyone like Barry. But the Lions were never particularly great, either.
Sometimes in sports, a team captures magic. You can feel it around them. I felt it with the Red Wings before anyone else and it's for that reason that the Wings are first and foremost in my heart. I'll remember the moment vividly for all my life - I'm sitting up as a kid, 12 or 13 years old, watching Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It's at Joe Louis. It's against the Philadelphia Flyers, who were favored to win the series, and yet, these young, upstart Red Wings have a 3-0 series lead and a 1-0 lead in the game in the second period. And Darren McCarty takes a pass at center ice. He pulls out a truly awesome deke on the Flyers' defenseman, then follows it up with another on All-Star goalie Ron Hextall, backhanding the puck into a virtually empty net. I remember being absolutely slack-jawed. It was a move you expected from Wayne Gretzky. McCarty was our enforcer - our resident beat-'em-up bad boy. He didn't score goals, at least not like that. And yet, there it was. And the Joe Louis Arena erupted. I'd never seen anything like it. The place went nuts. Right there, right then, that series ended and everyone knew it. The Red Wings knew it. The fans knew it. The Flyers knew it. The place rocked for the rest of the game. There was magic in it, magic I still see and feel when I see replays or videos of it now. It just coursed through the place. I knew, when that puck hit the net, when the Joe erupted, that my team was going to win it all. It wasn't the first Detroit sports championship of my lifetime, but it was the first I was actively cheering for; the first I was emotionally invested in.
A week later, Vladimir Konstantinov, a Red Wings defenseman, was in a car crash with a team masseuse and chauffeur. Konstantinov was paralyzed. It was a sobering moment for a city that was still celebrating. I remember it being a shock, as if a family member or, at least, a good friend had been hurt. I remember there being vigils. I remember the city pouring its heart out to a man whose only words in English had come through a translator. But he was one of ours. He was a Red Wing. When the season started, it was never spoken that I can recall, but it seemed like everyone knew... the Wings played knowing it, the fans seemed to know - we were going to win the Stanley Cup again, for Vladimir Konstantinov. We did. And when the buzzer went off and the game ended, who was wheeled onto the ice but Vladimir Konstantinov, in his jersey. And when Steve Yzerman handed the Cup off, it was to set it on Konstantinov's lap. The team surrounded him at that time, a moment that I have a photograph of, set onto a marble plaque that hangs in my office, because of what that meant. Because that's the kind of team the Red Wings are. It's the kind of city Detroit is. It's a big part of why I'll always hold the Red Wings a bit higher than the Tigers, Lions and Pistons. And sure, a long playoff-appearance streak helps. They're the winningest Detroit team of my life. But that's not my first thought. I think of guys who spend their careers in Detroit - Yzerman and Lidstrom, for example. I think of the Joe Louis Arena erupting, of the magic of that fateful McCarty goal. I think of Vladimir Konstantinov, on the ice in a wheelchair, the Stanley Cup on his lap and the Red Wings surrounding him. That's what I think of.
Sports are a trivial thing on the surface. Men battling each other to throw or hit an object into a larger receptacle for metaphysical points. On the surface, it doesn't mean a lot. And yet, somehow, these contests define entire cities, entire populations. People gravitate towards them. They bleed for the game. Fans weep tears of sorrow, tears of joy. Because sports go beyond the game itself, you know. It's about people, about relationships. It's about magic and destiny. It's about someone like Vladimir Konstantinov, paralyzed in a horrible accident, being on the ice for the celebration a year later. It's about Steve Yzerman playing his entire career as a Red Wing, being an icon to the city, growing up in front of the eyes of every Detroit hockey fan, from being a wide-eyed 19 year-old to growing up to be the face of the franchise, becoming a leader before our eyes. It's about watching a city's worth of people set aside multitudes of difference in favor of a single commonality - loyalty to a sports team.
Yzerman returned to Detroit this week. The Red Wings did him the honor of a brief video tribute during the first commercial break; the fans did him the honor of a deserved standing ovation. We love Steve Yzerman, or Stevie Y as we know him, in Detroit. Steve Yzerman, a good sport, came to the ice to wave to the crowd as it ended, to receive the honor. But he looked the slightest bit uncomfortable during it. But that's Stevie Y - he never hogged a spotlight. It was always about the team, always about the game. And for him, it still is, it always will be. It was an unavoidable event - a tribute to Yzerman on his first game back in Detroit after leaving. It was a formality on all sides; something the Red Wings were obligated to do, something that Yzerman knew would happen. He deserves every tribute, but he's not the kind of person who focuses on that or really cares; he's about the game, about his team, about getting points on that night. That attitude is his legacy, the one that builds champions, the one that earns these inconvenient tributes. In the era of the diva athlete, it's no wonder that Detroit loves Steve Yzerman, it's no wonder that we admire him and we love the Red Wings he helped build. He just went to work, did his job, and built something wonderful.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 13
Last week was 11-5, making my season mark 112-62.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
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