Last week was 11-5, making my season mark 112-62.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
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