Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 14

Last week saw me at 11-5 again, bumping my mark to 123-67.

This week:

Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)

Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)

Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)

After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.

So.  Thursday Night.  Well, not much to say here.  This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.

For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should.  A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize.  The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining.  I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.

For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later.  Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte.  The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading.  I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team.  You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up.  Chargers win this.  But both teams aren't good.  Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose.  I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.

Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team.  The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are.  Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona.  Reality reasserts.

Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker.  Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost.  I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.

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