Almost there; two weeks left. Last week I went 9-7, putting my season at 140-82.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
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So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
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