Pierce's Picks - MLB Regular Season Finale

The baseball season is ending.  It's been a pretty wild ride.  We had some surprise surges, including memorable first halves of the season by Pittsburgh and Cleveland, and we had some pretty surprising teams fall off - can you say 100 losses in Minnesota this season?  So, since I picked up this blog late in the season, I'm going to tell you how the rest of things will play out.

1) Justin Verlander will be the AL Cy Young winner, but he will not win the MVP, despite being the clear MVP, because he is a pitcher.  While Tigers fans will initially feel burned by this, they won't feel so bad when Verlander takes his quiet fury into the playoffs, is even better than he was in the regular season, and leads them to their first World Series victory since the year of my birth, 1984.

2) Yes, that's a formal prediction - the Tigers are going to win the World Series.

3) The Red Sox fail to collapse entirely (an overblown story, in my opinion) and take the Wild Card spot over the Tampa Bay Rays, only to be swept by the Tigers or Rangers.

4) I really like Clayton Kershaw for the NL Cy Young.  He deserves it; but I can't shake the feeling that somehow either Halladay or Lee end up with it.

5) Atlanta is the NL Wild Card.  This has been known to me since June.  I'm amused at how analysts seem to still think this is a race somehow.

6) I'm not buying the Phillies entirely yet.  Anything can happen in that NL playoff field.

7) On that note - the Diamondbacks meet (and lose to) the Tigers in the World Series.  Really.  I'm going to call it the Sparky Anderson Classic.

8) I predict I don't follow the NL closely enough (outside of pitching stats) to declare an MVP.  Ah, I see I got one prediction right!

9) The Minnesota Twins will become, if memory serves, the second member of the 100-100 club - losing 100+ games with a $100M+ payroll.  I can't see them winning 4 of 11 to finish the season and avoid it.  They'd be joining the 2008 Seattle Mariners, who were the inaugural member of said club.

10) More detailed playoff predictions:

ALDS - Tigers over Red Sox in 3 / Yankees over Rangers in 4.
NLDS - D-Backs over Phillies in 5 / Brewers over Braves in 4.

ALCS - Tigers over Yankees in 6.
NLCS - D-Backs over Brewers in 7.

World Series - Tigers over D-Backs in 4.

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 2

Well, we had a few surprises in Week 1, but that's to be expected... it is the first week of the year, after all.

My Week 1 picks give me a starting record of 10-6.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Oakland (1-0) @ Buffalo (1-0)
Chicago (1-0) @ New Orleans (0-1)
Cleveland (0-1) @ Indianapolis (0-1)
Kansas City (0-1) @ Detroit (1-0)
Green Bay (1-0) @ Carolina (0-1)
Baltimore (1-0) @ Tennessee (0-1)
Tampa Bay (0-1) @ Minnesota (0-1)
Jacksonville (1-0) @ NY Jets (1-0)
Arizona (1-0) @ Washington (1-0)
Seattle (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (0-1)

Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Dallas (0-1) @ San Francisco (1-0)
Cincinnati (1-0) @ Denver (0-1)
Houston (1-0) @ Miami (0-1)
San Diego (1-0) @ New England (1-0)

Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (1-0) @ Atlanta (0-1)

Monday Night -
St. Louis (0-1) @ NY Giants (0-1)

Based on one week of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.

Some tough calls, some easy calls, as I see it.  I think it's safe to say that Indianapolis is a shadow of itself without Peyton Manning, which speaks to his greatness... he's the lynchpin of that team and without him, well... we all saw.  I think Green Bay and Baltimore are the best teams in the league right now.  Pittsburgh will lick its wounds on Seattle, which should establish the tradition of West Coast Teams Traveling East And Laying An Egg as we have every year (same rule for Buffalo over Oakland).  Cincy/Denver is a tough call... Denver looked awful against Oakland; their defense looks much improved though, but that offensive line and running game... bad.  But I like them at home against Cincy.  Oakland will be a good test for Buffalo to see if Week 1 was a mirage or a truth for them.  Detroit should dismantle a hurting Kansas City secondary, but we'll see - no reason to get overconfident there yet.  Will Minnesota have more than 40 yards passing this week?  We'll see, but I think the Bucs are the better team.  I thought Chad Henne had a great game against New England; possible upset there for Miami over Houston, but I'm not sold yet.  Arizona and Washington provide good tests for each other's Week 1 success, too...

The Sunday Night game should be a good one - Atlanta got embarrassed by what I think is an inferior Bears team; how will they respond at home against the hot-to-trot Eagles?  The Monday Night game proves to be less exciting, with a lackluster-looking Giants and the up-and-coming Rams, but the Rams have a dinged up Sam Bradford and an injured Steven Jackson... will Cadillac Williams light up Monday Night Football?  We'll see.

So much for my Kansas City survival pick last week... but I stand by my Week 1 logic of taking teams who need the win.  KC's season is in flux after that devastation.  For this week, depending on who you want to save or not, I like Pittsburgh for sure over Seattle, followed by Detroit or NY Jets.  If you want to be daring, Tampa Bay is a good pick - they need to, and should, beat Minnesota.  Take note that of my four potential survival picks last week, three of four panned out.

Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 1

We're back!  We have an NFL season and we will have a second consecutive year of Pierce's Picks, published online (truly, this is probably the fourth or fifth year in a row I've done this).

For the 2010 season, I finished with my picks at 161-95, approximately a 63% success rate, which was about the equivalent of a 10-6 average each week.  I went 7-4 in the playoffs, including correctly predicting the Green Bay victory.  We'll see how I do this season!

Like last year, my winning picks will be highlighted in gold.  I'll run through all of my picks and some weeks include some thoughts or notes or justifications below.

Thursday Night -
New Orleans (0-0) @ Green Bay (0-0)

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (0-0) @ Chicago (0-0)
Buffalo (0-0) @ Kansas City (0-0)
Cincinnati (0-0) @ Cleveland (0-0)
Detroit (0-0) @ Tampa Bay (0-0)
Tennessee (0-0) @ Jacksonville (0-0)
Indianapolis (0-0) @ Houston (0-0)
Philadelphia (0-0) @ St. Louis (0-0)
Pittsburgh (0-0) @ Baltimore (0-0)

Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Minnesota (0-0) @ San Diego (0-0)
NY Giants (0-0) @ Washington (0-0)
Carolina (0-0) @ Arizona (0-0)
Seattle (0-0) @ San Francisco (0-0)

Sunday Night -
Dallas (0-0) @ NY Jets (0-0)

Monday Night -
New England (0-0) @ Miami (0-0)
Oakland (0-0) @ Denver (0-0)

I'm not sure why everyone is hyped on New Orleans... I guess I'll find out, but I think Green Bay is still better, and that starts now.  Kansas City has to beat Buffalo, with or without Matt Cassel, that's the kind of loss that puts a downer on your whole season.  Likewise, Houston has to beat Indianapolis - they're at home, and besides that, Peyton Manning either won't play or will be playing with no preseason and a bit rusty.  If Houston can't beat a wounded Colts team, they can give up hope now.  I thought Jacksonville was a lock on Tennessee, but with the release of David Garrard, who knows... they're such similar teams, with elite RBs and questionable QB situations and WRs.  Tough call, but I'll take the Tennessee WR corps and defense over Jacksonville's for now.  The Detroit and Tampa game is a great game to see which team's youth movement is ready to push the envelope going forward: both teams are looking great and should expect good things, it's a bigger early-season test for both than people realize.

If you're looking for survival league advice, I'd suggest Houston, Kansas City, San Diego or Arizona.  Personally, I'm going with Kansas City.

Pierce's Pick - Super Bowl XLV

I called the big game correctly, so I'm 6-4 on the playoffs. So, without further ado...

Sunday, February 6th, 2011, at 6:30pm ET -
Super Bowl XLV
The Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC 2-seed) @ The Green Bay Packers (NFC 6-seed)

It took me about a week to decide who to pick for this game. This is one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls I can remember and I honestly believe the best team from both conferences is playing. The Steelers are #1 in points-allowed defense. The Packers are #2. Both have franchise quarterbacks. Both have experienced receiving corps featuring a aged veteran, a younger speedster, and a cast of lesser-known skill receivers. Both have battled injury all season. Both have an iconic playmaker in the secondary. Both have monsters in the linebacking corps. These teams are closely matched.

The differences come here: the Steelers have Super Bowl experience and, perhaps more importantly, rings. The Steelers have backups at every position on the offensive line. The Packers have an unknown at running back. Rodgers posts godly number inside. The Steelers don't match up as well against 4 or 5 receiver sets. Rodgers hasn't performed on a stage this big before.

As far as football logic goes, I ask myself a simple question - given that I expect a close game, if it comes down to one team trailing by 4 with 2 minutes left, from their own 20, do I trust Ben against the Packer defense or Rodgers against the Steeler defense to make the game-winning drive? And in football logic, I would take the experienced, ringed hand of Roethlisberger in that situation normally.

But I don't see Ben with 3 rings in 7 years. I don't see Tomlin with 2 in 4. It's easy to go with experience, but sometimes hunger trumps that. This is a Packer team with swagger, a team that's overcome a lot to get where it is, playing with a chip on its shoulder. Like the Steelers, they can play whatever game they need to in order to win. Have I mentioned Rodgers posts godly numbers indoors?

I like both teams. I think both are built to be good for a long time - perhaps enough so that they'll meet again like this. I think both build properly - by developing young players through the draft and avoiding big free agent moves. Both are long-standing franchises of good reputation. Both are franchises beloved by the blue-collar working man. They're gritty teams, punch-you-in-the-mouth, we-play-in-the-cold teams that it's hard not to respect, if nothing else. But I'm playing my gut this weekend. My gut says Green Bay wins, that these two teams match up well enough across the board that, ultimately, it becomes a game of willpower and hunger and I think in that category, Green Bay wins.

The Lombardi Trophy goes home to Green Bay on Sunday.

Pierce's Picks - Conference Championship Weekend

Last week saw me go 2-2 again, putting me at an even 4-4 for the playoffs thusfar.

As for this weekend's games...

Sunday at 3:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
A cold-weather divisional game in Chicago for two outdoor teams. This is what January football is all about right here. Chicago will have home-field advantage, but Green Bay is comfortable out in the cold, so I question just how advantageous that will be, especially with the two cities close enough that the crowd could very well be split. Both teams have solid defenses - Chicago's might be slightly better due to experience, but Green Bay's might be slightly hungrier being the younger of the two. Chicago has the better run game as well, giving them an advantage if the weather gets really bad and in the clock management department, too. However, I like Aaron Rodgers over Jay Cutler if the game is close and calls for some heroics. I think up to now, Chicago has been the luckiest team in the league, ever since that TD-not-a-TD catch by Calvin Johnson in the first game of the season. I like Aaron Rodgers and a better overall Packers team to give them a dose of reality. I think it'll be close and I take Rodgers in a clutch, cold-weather situation over Cutler any day of the week. Green Bay to the Super Bowl.

Sunday at 6:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
Much like the earlier game, this is going to be a cold-weather outdoor game between two outdoor, cold-weather teams. Much like the other game, both teams have solid defenses - in fact, these two teams have two of the best defenses in the league. So the question becomes, which offense can overcome? I believe have won their big game already - they beat the Patriots and the Colts. But I have to feel like they're out of gas. They've slain their dragons and the Steelers are a new beast entirely. Without the ability to run the ball on the Steeler defense, I don't trust Mark Sanchez to be the game-changing quarterback the Jets might need. He can manage a game just fine, but win it... well, we'll see. Ben Roethlisberger, meanwhile, has two Super Bowl rings and plenty of big-game playoff experience. He's a gamer, a winner and I believe that this game will come down to which QB can make the big play at clutch time - and in that case, it's no question to me, it's Big Ben. Pittsburgh to face Green Bay in the Super Bowl.

Pierce's Picks - Divisional Playoff Weekend

Wild Card Weekend was just that - wild - and I went 2-2 on my picks.

Let's move on to this week's matchups:

Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Pittsburgh (2-seed)
A huge matchup against one of the best rivalries of football right now. These teams are virtually mirror images of each other, built to punch each other right in the mouth and keep punching. I think the Ravens are on the rise with their retooled offense and while they're a great playoff road team, I find it hard to go against a gamer like Ben Roethlisberger, who is one of those guys who goes out there and puts it all on the line to win the game. Defensively, they have Troy Polamalu doing the same thing. I love the intensity of Joe Flacco and Ray Lewis for Baltimore, but at the end of the day, I think Ben can make the big play in the big moment and Joe isn't quite there yet.

Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Atlanta (1-seed)
The two best teams in the NFC are matched up here and I have zero doubt that the winner goes to the Super Bowl. They played a close match in the regular season and while part of me thinks momentum can carry the Packers through the Falcons, I'm sticking to my guns on one of my steady rules of picks over the past two years - don't go against the Falcons at home. I think Aaron Rodgers is a better gamer than Matt Ryan, but I think the healthy Falcons team is better overall than a Packers team ravaged by injury over the season. The Falcons play mistake-free football and their home-field advantage gives them the edge here for me.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Seattle (4-seed) @ Chicago (2-seed)
I don't like either team in the playoffs. As I think about these teams, I see one who stumbled into the playoffs due to a weak division and another who stumbled into the playoffs due to lucky break after lucky break. But one of them has to win and go to the NFC Championship. This is less about which team is better, to me, than it is which team is less worse. It boils to to which I like less... the Seahawks on the road, or Jay Cutler in a pressure situation. Given that it's going to be absolutely freezing out there, I'm going with the home team, perhaps against my better judgment.

Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ New England (1-seed)
All week long, the Jets have yap-yap-yapped. And the Patriots maintain their usual business-like silence. I'm not sure how a team can yap-yap-yap when the last time these teams played, it was a 45-3 obliteration that made one team look like they were still playing high school ball. I consider Tom Brady one of the top-5 all-time QBs and one of the best playoff QBs - I'm not going against him in the playoffs after he's had the most masterful regular season of his career. I don't expect 45-3 to be the score again, but I think this will still likely be the widest margin of victory of the weekend... I get the feeling that Belicheck and the Patriots like rubbing the Jets' nose in it after all the yap-yap-yap... and to be honest, I don't blame 'em.

Pierce's Picks - Wild Card Weekend

I went 11-5 to close out the regular season, putting my final season record at 161-95, giving me a regular season mark of 63% or so, the rough equivalent of a 10-6 average.

Now, onto the playoff picks - as well as a winner, I'll offer my justification.

Saturday at 4:30pm ET -
New Orleans (5-seed) @ Seattle (4-seed)
It's hard to pick for the weakest division winner in the history of the NFL, although I think they have a slight chance here. Qwest Field is a tough place to play and the Saints have run-game troubles. But the Seahawks have been blown out at home this year against other winning teams and I don't expect a team with a losing record to make it a round in the playoffs. The Saints are banged up and not in an ideal state, but I expect them to pull out a win here.

Saturday at 8:00pm ET -
NY Jets (6-seed) @ Indianapolis (3-seed)
Part of me wants to go with the Jets here - they tooled themselves for this game and they gave Peyton and the Colts one heck of a game last year when the Colts were healthy. But I think swagger can only carry you so far and the team has been out of sync lately. I also think the Colts, with their mechanical style of (usually) mistake-free offensive efficiency are one of the best swagger-killers in the league as a result. Much like the Saints, I think the Colts have their problems and aren't likely to go far, but I think they send the Jets packing early.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Baltimore (5-seed) @ Kansas City (4-seed)
Joe Flacco and his Ravens are one of the better road playoff teams around right now and while I do think the Chiefs are a sound team, I think Baltimore's got the big-play capability that the Chiefs lack. In some ways, these teams mirror each other, but Baltimore is a little further along in the process. The Chiefs promising season ends here.

Sunday at 4:30pm ET -
Green Bay (6-seed) @ Philadelphia (3-seed)
The clear game of the weekend, this game will feature two unstoppable, high-power offenses. To me, this game boils down to one simple question - which defense do I expect to make a big play when needed? If that's the question, then the answer is Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. I think the young Eagles defense isn't ready and the seasoned Packers defense is.

Pierce's Picks - Week 17

The fantasy season is over and so goes the regular season. Last week I went 8-8, putting my season mark through 16 up to 150-90.

Winners in gold.

Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (2-13) @ Atlanta (12-3)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (5-10)
Minnesota (6-9) @ Detroit (5-10)
Oakland (7-8) @ Kansas City (10-5)
Miami (7-8) @ New England (13-2)
Cincinnati (4-11) @ Baltimore (11-4)
Tampa Bay (9-6) @ New Orleans (11-4)
Buffalo (4-11) @ NY Jets (10-5)

Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (11-4) @ Green Bay (9-6)
Tennessee (6-9) @ Indianapolis (9-6)
NY Giants (9-6) @ Washington (6-9)
Jacksonville (8-7) @ Houston (5-10)
Dallas (5-10) @ Philadelphia (10-5)
Arizona (5-10) @ San Francisco (5-10)
San Diego (8-7) @ Denver (4-11)

Sunday Night -
St. Louis (7-8) @ Seattle (6-9)

We'll finish the season with one storyline that'll be talked about going throughout the playoffs - finding out whether or not the NFC West will finish with a division winner under .500. Let's hope not. I'm picking St. Louis. Lots of these games mean little and many teams will rest starters, so it's hard to discern winners always. I like Dallas and Miami for those reasons. I like Detroit to beat Minnesota and finish the season strong. Jacksonville loses David Garrard, as well, giving Houston the opportunity to finish with a win, also.

I'll be continuing my picks throughout the playoffs and I'll continue to bring my thoughts to this blog as time allows.