I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 9
Last week was 9-4, putting me at 79-37 on the season thusfar.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 8
Oof. Last week saw me sink to 8-5, which puts my season record at 70-33.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 7
Last week saw me go 9-4; six teams not playing again.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 6
A respectable 10-3 record last week in the first week of the year with teams off.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Al Davis, the Eagles, Tim Tebow and the ALCS.
I'm deviating from my normal format today and offering more discussion and prose than that backed by and supplemented with prediction. It's been a busy, intense weekend in sports and it's worth discussing.
Al Davis.
I'm just a random guy, a football fan blogging when he has time. I didn't know Al Davis. I don't have stories about him. I never played for, or was a fan of, the Raiders. But I do know what Al Davis was to the game. I know the history. We've all had our fun at Al Davis's expense over the last decade. He's gotten older. He's spewed vitriol publicly at former employees like Lane Kiffin. I've described things or events as "Al Davis crazy" in the past years. I've joked about how once Al Davis is gone, that'd leave Jerry Jones as the resident "borderline-senile, overly-enthusiastic, crazy old owner guy" in the NFL. Al is gone now. I think I joked because I never thought the day would come.
Jerry Jones, for all his bluster and gusto, will never measure up to Al Davis. No one will. You've heard plenty about how Al Davis was one-of-a-kind. It's not rhetoric. He was. He climbed the ladder of football, he was a coach and a commissioner, an owner and a scout. He presided over the AFL and, without him, mark my words, the NFL as we know it never happens. It was Davis who aggressively lured NFL players to AFL teams, narrowing the gap between the competing leagues and ultimately forcing the merger. But we remember Davis for not only being a driving force in that event, but for being the dissenting vote, for telling the NFL to stick it and that he'd be content turning the AFL into a superior product and grinding the NFL to dust. Al Davis had balls. He did things his way. He was the maverick of the NFL, the aged rebel, still the league's bad-boy owner to his last day. He was the Raiders. There'll never be another Al Davis. He was the last vestige of the previous era and now he's gone.
Those Eagles...
I saw this coming in Week 3. I'll be honest. I didn't say anything, but maybe I should have. I wasn't ready to blog opinions yet. But when Vick went off in his postgame presser about the refs treating him unfairly, I knew the ship was sinking. When he came out the next week after losing and gave short, nasty answers to a reporter asking a completely fair question, I knew we were sinking even faster. And now the ship is... well, some sportswriter said it was on fire and crashing into the iceberg and I think that's pretty apt. Will they recover? I say no way.
Tebow Time!
Tebow is the starter in Denver now and, quite frankly, it's the right move. Will it result in more wins? Probably not. Maybe one or two early on, but in the long run, I doubt it. Here's a prediction - Tebow looks good for two or three weeks. Maybe even great. Just like Vick in his return last season, before teams get tape on him, Tebow will make plays and maybe get some wins. But once teams have tape, expect his performance to decline. He doesn't have a complete set of tools, but he does have a lot of potential - and given how bad the Broncos are, it really is in the best interests of the team to play Tebow and see what happens. He gets an opportunity to show his stuff and prove himself to John Fox and John Elway. If he's good, he stays. If not, they move him in the offseason and push forward. It's a logical move for a bad team and I give them credit for giving up on the season this early to explore their options for next year. It's bad for short-term wins, but that's a strategy that can pay off long-term.
The ALCS.
In short, the Tigers bats are slumping when they're playing the best bullpen in baseball. Let's be honest - the Tigers can't matchup against the Rangers bullpen, not with all the injuries now. And worse yet is a stat that was said on ESPN today - Cabrera and V-Mart are 1-for-9 in the ALCS, and the Tigers have left 22 men on base. These stats mean two things to me. First, the Tigers are getting opportunities but not cashing in. This is the kind of thing that can turn fast - if they start cashing in, the Tigers roar. But this was a theme against the Yankees too - how many games did they leave runners on base in the first three innings and end up behind later as a result? It's more important against Texas - against that bullpen, if they don't make the starting pitching pay, odds are on Texas later. Game 2 was a perfect example - once Valverde/Coke/Benoit were done, we're going to Ryan Perry to hold Texas in extra innings. If you give me a Mike Adams vs. Ryan Perry inning, I take Adams every time.
Three things have to happen for the Tigers to win the ALCS now: first, Cabrera and V-Mart have to get hitting. If those guys are cold, we're done. Simple as that. Secondly, they need to cash in at least some of the time when runners are on base. In truth, those two problems are the same problem - if the first is solved, it takes care of the second, and if the second is solved, odds are the first is how it got solved. Third, the Tigers have to win every game at home. If they drop any of Games 3-5, they lose in Texas in Game 6. End of series. No kidding.
Starting pitching has been pretty good, all things considered, as good as you can ask against a team like Texas. The good relievers - Coke/Benoit/Valverde - have been solid, too. The bats just need to answer the bell.
Al Davis.
I'm just a random guy, a football fan blogging when he has time. I didn't know Al Davis. I don't have stories about him. I never played for, or was a fan of, the Raiders. But I do know what Al Davis was to the game. I know the history. We've all had our fun at Al Davis's expense over the last decade. He's gotten older. He's spewed vitriol publicly at former employees like Lane Kiffin. I've described things or events as "Al Davis crazy" in the past years. I've joked about how once Al Davis is gone, that'd leave Jerry Jones as the resident "borderline-senile, overly-enthusiastic, crazy old owner guy" in the NFL. Al is gone now. I think I joked because I never thought the day would come.
Jerry Jones, for all his bluster and gusto, will never measure up to Al Davis. No one will. You've heard plenty about how Al Davis was one-of-a-kind. It's not rhetoric. He was. He climbed the ladder of football, he was a coach and a commissioner, an owner and a scout. He presided over the AFL and, without him, mark my words, the NFL as we know it never happens. It was Davis who aggressively lured NFL players to AFL teams, narrowing the gap between the competing leagues and ultimately forcing the merger. But we remember Davis for not only being a driving force in that event, but for being the dissenting vote, for telling the NFL to stick it and that he'd be content turning the AFL into a superior product and grinding the NFL to dust. Al Davis had balls. He did things his way. He was the maverick of the NFL, the aged rebel, still the league's bad-boy owner to his last day. He was the Raiders. There'll never be another Al Davis. He was the last vestige of the previous era and now he's gone.
Those Eagles...
I saw this coming in Week 3. I'll be honest. I didn't say anything, but maybe I should have. I wasn't ready to blog opinions yet. But when Vick went off in his postgame presser about the refs treating him unfairly, I knew the ship was sinking. When he came out the next week after losing and gave short, nasty answers to a reporter asking a completely fair question, I knew we were sinking even faster. And now the ship is... well, some sportswriter said it was on fire and crashing into the iceberg and I think that's pretty apt. Will they recover? I say no way.
Tebow Time!
Tebow is the starter in Denver now and, quite frankly, it's the right move. Will it result in more wins? Probably not. Maybe one or two early on, but in the long run, I doubt it. Here's a prediction - Tebow looks good for two or three weeks. Maybe even great. Just like Vick in his return last season, before teams get tape on him, Tebow will make plays and maybe get some wins. But once teams have tape, expect his performance to decline. He doesn't have a complete set of tools, but he does have a lot of potential - and given how bad the Broncos are, it really is in the best interests of the team to play Tebow and see what happens. He gets an opportunity to show his stuff and prove himself to John Fox and John Elway. If he's good, he stays. If not, they move him in the offseason and push forward. It's a logical move for a bad team and I give them credit for giving up on the season this early to explore their options for next year. It's bad for short-term wins, but that's a strategy that can pay off long-term.
The ALCS.
In short, the Tigers bats are slumping when they're playing the best bullpen in baseball. Let's be honest - the Tigers can't matchup against the Rangers bullpen, not with all the injuries now. And worse yet is a stat that was said on ESPN today - Cabrera and V-Mart are 1-for-9 in the ALCS, and the Tigers have left 22 men on base. These stats mean two things to me. First, the Tigers are getting opportunities but not cashing in. This is the kind of thing that can turn fast - if they start cashing in, the Tigers roar. But this was a theme against the Yankees too - how many games did they leave runners on base in the first three innings and end up behind later as a result? It's more important against Texas - against that bullpen, if they don't make the starting pitching pay, odds are on Texas later. Game 2 was a perfect example - once Valverde/Coke/Benoit were done, we're going to Ryan Perry to hold Texas in extra innings. If you give me a Mike Adams vs. Ryan Perry inning, I take Adams every time.
Three things have to happen for the Tigers to win the ALCS now: first, Cabrera and V-Mart have to get hitting. If those guys are cold, we're done. Simple as that. Secondly, they need to cash in at least some of the time when runners are on base. In truth, those two problems are the same problem - if the first is solved, it takes care of the second, and if the second is solved, odds are the first is how it got solved. Third, the Tigers have to win every game at home. If they drop any of Games 3-5, they lose in Texas in Game 6. End of series. No kidding.
Starting pitching has been pretty good, all things considered, as good as you can ask against a team like Texas. The good relievers - Coke/Benoit/Valverde - have been solid, too. The bats just need to answer the bell.
Friday, October 7, 2011
MLB 2011 - Tigers ALCS Preview
So we're here. I predicted, during spring training, that the Tigers would win the AL Central. This was, at the time, laughable to my many friends who are Twins fans. Well, who's laughing now? I always tease them back - hey, we might not make the playoffs every year, but at least when we do, we beat the Yankees. And here we are.
A lot of people panicked after Game 4, and writing this after Game 5 is over is well, obviously you'll take what I say with a grain of salt. I should have been more prudent. But I'm also the kind of hometown fan who likes to ignore the pressure situation until it happens. Don't think about. Don't talk about it. Don't predict anything. Wear the right underwear, wear the lucky shirt. I'm probably more superstitious about baseball than any other sport, if only because the deciding factor can hang on a single pitch. During Game 5, in the 8th and 9th as the Tigers had a 1-run lead, I'm sitting there sweating because you know that the tying run is always at the plate with the Yankees - anyone can blast it out of the park there. So you're just hoping a base-runner doesn't get on, because that can be the end of that.
The Tigers have a Jekyll-and-Hyde bullpen. They have some studs. Benoit. Valverde. I trust these guys. I trust Benoit to be solid and I trust Valverde to almost always give me a heart attack, but somehow come through in the end. I trust Phil Coke to provide 7th inning relief or help out on lefties. I trust Al Alburquerque in the way you can trust a rookie who gets a lot of strikeouts. After that, I don't trust anyone. That's why I didn't take the score of Game 4 to heart. See:
The Tigers were down 4-1 with the bases loaded when Leyland called in Al-Al. No outs. This is a logical move - Al-Al is our best strikeout reliever and if anyone is going to get out of a jam like that, it's him. This was Leyland's turning point. If Al-Al gets out of the jam, the game comes out differently. Not saying the Tigers win, mind you, but it'd look different. Instead, Al-Al gives up two hits on a balk and a single. Al-Al, for all I like him, looks very overwhelmed in the playoffs so far, but maybe that's because Leyland keeps throwing him into the highest of high pressure situations. Anyway. The score is 6-1 and Leyland trots out Daniel Schlereth.
I like Daniel Schlereth. Dude has a good beard. His dad gives decent analysis on ESPN. Good for him. But Schlereth hasn't ever really proven anything to the Tigers yet and, as a result, Leyland always puts him out there when the game is already over. If we're behind, I consider Schlereth to be the white flag of "okay, we're done." And as such, more runs are given up. Schlereth is out, then Ryan Perry. None of our really trusted guys come out. In fact, Game 4's pitching lineup other than Coke was mostly a batch of "adequate" guys - not playoff guys. Leyland had a plan. He wanted Fister and Scherzer, Benoit and Valverde ready for Game 5. That 10-1 wasn't indicative of how the Tigers would play, who they would trot out, the next day. And indeed, Game 5's lineup held the Yankees to 2 runs. That's because two starters went 6 innings (and change) and handed the ball to Benoit and Valverde.
And how about Benoit in the 7th? As I watched that, and saw only Valverde warming up, I knew we would win or lose by Benoit and how he pitched out of that bases loaded jam. He walked in a run, but never lost his composure, although he seemed genuinely irritated at the start by having to remove his band-aid. Seriously, Joe Girardi? That's a dick move. I'm glad you lost. It's a band-aid. Anyway, as I watched, holding my breath, I said to myself, "hey, this was our big-money acquisition this season. We brought him in precisely for this moment." And I knew we had to win or lose by him, because he was the best we had. If he blew it, we're beaten. No losing the game or any sour grapes, just straight up - their guy was better than our guy. Honorable defeat, so to speak. But Benoit lived up to his payday and made it happen. It was easier to cope with when I sat back and said "I trust my front office."
The Tigers will surely have Verlander ready for Game 1, which hopefully will not be rain-delayed again. I'm interested to see if Fister or Scherzer pitch Game 2, or if they bring out Porcello again. I thought Porcello was sufficient in Game 4 of the ALDS and, if Verlander wins Game 1 (is that really a question?), it'd be a safe play to bring in Porcello and then have Fister and Scherzer ready to go for Games 3/4. Assuming those split (and they could both be wins), Verlander comes in again in Game 5 to either win the series or put the Tigers in the lead to eliminate. The pitching matchups favor the Tigers, I think, but their bats need to wake up. Alex Avila has been an MVP for the Tigers - seriously - and needs to get his bat back after an awful ALDS. With Delmon Young possibly out for some time with an oblique injury, an Avila resurgence would make up the difference.
Really, though? I think the Tigers cut through Texas pretty evenly. They take it in six - splitting the first two in Texas, then the first two in Detroit, before winning Games 5 and 6 to end it.
A lot of people panicked after Game 4, and writing this after Game 5 is over is well, obviously you'll take what I say with a grain of salt. I should have been more prudent. But I'm also the kind of hometown fan who likes to ignore the pressure situation until it happens. Don't think about. Don't talk about it. Don't predict anything. Wear the right underwear, wear the lucky shirt. I'm probably more superstitious about baseball than any other sport, if only because the deciding factor can hang on a single pitch. During Game 5, in the 8th and 9th as the Tigers had a 1-run lead, I'm sitting there sweating because you know that the tying run is always at the plate with the Yankees - anyone can blast it out of the park there. So you're just hoping a base-runner doesn't get on, because that can be the end of that.
The Tigers have a Jekyll-and-Hyde bullpen. They have some studs. Benoit. Valverde. I trust these guys. I trust Benoit to be solid and I trust Valverde to almost always give me a heart attack, but somehow come through in the end. I trust Phil Coke to provide 7th inning relief or help out on lefties. I trust Al Alburquerque in the way you can trust a rookie who gets a lot of strikeouts. After that, I don't trust anyone. That's why I didn't take the score of Game 4 to heart. See:
The Tigers were down 4-1 with the bases loaded when Leyland called in Al-Al. No outs. This is a logical move - Al-Al is our best strikeout reliever and if anyone is going to get out of a jam like that, it's him. This was Leyland's turning point. If Al-Al gets out of the jam, the game comes out differently. Not saying the Tigers win, mind you, but it'd look different. Instead, Al-Al gives up two hits on a balk and a single. Al-Al, for all I like him, looks very overwhelmed in the playoffs so far, but maybe that's because Leyland keeps throwing him into the highest of high pressure situations. Anyway. The score is 6-1 and Leyland trots out Daniel Schlereth.
I like Daniel Schlereth. Dude has a good beard. His dad gives decent analysis on ESPN. Good for him. But Schlereth hasn't ever really proven anything to the Tigers yet and, as a result, Leyland always puts him out there when the game is already over. If we're behind, I consider Schlereth to be the white flag of "okay, we're done." And as such, more runs are given up. Schlereth is out, then Ryan Perry. None of our really trusted guys come out. In fact, Game 4's pitching lineup other than Coke was mostly a batch of "adequate" guys - not playoff guys. Leyland had a plan. He wanted Fister and Scherzer, Benoit and Valverde ready for Game 5. That 10-1 wasn't indicative of how the Tigers would play, who they would trot out, the next day. And indeed, Game 5's lineup held the Yankees to 2 runs. That's because two starters went 6 innings (and change) and handed the ball to Benoit and Valverde.
And how about Benoit in the 7th? As I watched that, and saw only Valverde warming up, I knew we would win or lose by Benoit and how he pitched out of that bases loaded jam. He walked in a run, but never lost his composure, although he seemed genuinely irritated at the start by having to remove his band-aid. Seriously, Joe Girardi? That's a dick move. I'm glad you lost. It's a band-aid. Anyway, as I watched, holding my breath, I said to myself, "hey, this was our big-money acquisition this season. We brought him in precisely for this moment." And I knew we had to win or lose by him, because he was the best we had. If he blew it, we're beaten. No losing the game or any sour grapes, just straight up - their guy was better than our guy. Honorable defeat, so to speak. But Benoit lived up to his payday and made it happen. It was easier to cope with when I sat back and said "I trust my front office."
The Tigers will surely have Verlander ready for Game 1, which hopefully will not be rain-delayed again. I'm interested to see if Fister or Scherzer pitch Game 2, or if they bring out Porcello again. I thought Porcello was sufficient in Game 4 of the ALDS and, if Verlander wins Game 1 (is that really a question?), it'd be a safe play to bring in Porcello and then have Fister and Scherzer ready to go for Games 3/4. Assuming those split (and they could both be wins), Verlander comes in again in Game 5 to either win the series or put the Tigers in the lead to eliminate. The pitching matchups favor the Tigers, I think, but their bats need to wake up. Alex Avila has been an MVP for the Tigers - seriously - and needs to get his bat back after an awful ALDS. With Delmon Young possibly out for some time with an oblique injury, an Avila resurgence would make up the difference.
Really, though? I think the Tigers cut through Texas pretty evenly. They take it in six - splitting the first two in Texas, then the first two in Detroit, before winning Games 5 and 6 to end it.
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 5
Week 4 was an improvement on Week 3 - I went 11-5 last week.
That puts my season at 43-21 so far.
So far, I've learned these lessons this season:
1) The Redskins are for real, by playing a run-first, defense-first type of football.
2) The 49ers are for real, but less so than the Redskins, because they're in the NFC West.
3) The Steelers are getting old, fast, and it's showing.
4) The Lions are 4-0 and have yet to play a good, complete 60-minute game this year.
5) The Packers are 4-0 and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL right now.
6) Donovan McNabb is washed up.
7) Cam Newton is the real deal.
8) Josh McDaniels is having a horrifically adverse effect on the Rams offense.
As for this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Philadelphia (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Jacksonville (1-3)
Tennessee (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)
Kansas City (1-3) @ Indianapolis (0-4)
Oakland (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)
Arizona (1-3) @ Minnesota (0-4)
New Orleans (3-1) @ Carolina (1-3)
Seattle (1-3) @ NY Giants (3-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ San Francisco (3-1)
San Diego (3-1) @ Denver (1-3)
NY Jets (2-2) @ New England (3-1)
Sunday Night -
Green Bay (4-0) @ Atlanta (2-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-2) @ Detroit (4-0)
Byes -
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Based on four weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Nice slate this week. Obviously, the Seahawks will lose - West Coast traveling to East Coast for an early game rule in effect. I'm tempted to use that rule on Arizona, but they're only traveling to Central time and the Vikings are awful, so there. The Bills face the desperate Eagles after suffering their first loss - which team reacts to adversity better? Tough call. I think we can officially put every Carolina game in "trap game" status for the other team - the Panthers won't win a lot of games this year, but will be better than their record and good to beat anyone on any given Sunday; I'm still not picking them yet, though. I'm also not ready to pick the Colts to beat anybody - not even the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay and San Francisco game should be educational - it's a big game for those teams as they try to preserve 1-loss records. Pittsburgh has to beat Tennessee, but the Titans are playing some tough ball. Like Philly, though, the Steelers need a win to boost themselves. I think one of the Pennsylvania teams wins this week and the other's downward spiral steepens. Normally, I'd like Houston at home over Oakland - but not with Andre Johnson gone. Gonna be a lot of running the ball in that game.
My sincere hope is for an undefeated Packers team to meet an undefeated Lions team on Thanksgiving - that'd be intense. But I feel like that's unlikely and that something will give this week. Am I picking against either team right now? Hell no. But Matt Ryan's Falcons have only lost twice at home and the Lions have yet to play a complete game. Will Matt Ryan's success at home continue against an awful Packer pass defense? Will the sloppy first half play of the Lions finally catch up to them? I could see these scenarios playing out, but I'm not going to try and predict upsets here yet.
In other news, I have a bone to pick with the NFL. This whole new rule where every scoring play is reviewed is absolutely bogus. It's extending game times and creating one or two extra commercial breaks each touchdown. I'm settling into a rhythm of getting up after every scoring play because I know it'll be reviewed, no matter how clear it is, and I have time to make a sandwich or grab, drink and grab another beer. It's ridiculous. First of all, it's just not necessary. Secondly, isn't that what coaches' challenges are for? It seems that rules are taking challenges more and more out of coaches' hands. Leave it alone. This is a fix for something that wasn't broken and it's infuriating as a fan.
As for my survival picks, which have been completely bad this year, this week is a tougher one. I'd probably take the NY Giants as the surest pick, with secondary considerations to New Orleans and San Diego. But the Giants are only home team of those three, which gives them an edge for me, especially against a West Coast team. Easy one this week, I think.
That puts my season at 43-21 so far.
So far, I've learned these lessons this season:
1) The Redskins are for real, by playing a run-first, defense-first type of football.
2) The 49ers are for real, but less so than the Redskins, because they're in the NFC West.
3) The Steelers are getting old, fast, and it's showing.
4) The Lions are 4-0 and have yet to play a good, complete 60-minute game this year.
5) The Packers are 4-0 and have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL right now.
6) Donovan McNabb is washed up.
7) Cam Newton is the real deal.
8) Josh McDaniels is having a horrifically adverse effect on the Rams offense.
As for this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Philadelphia (1-3) @ Buffalo (3-1)
Cincinnati (2-2) @ Jacksonville (1-3)
Tennessee (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (2-2)
Kansas City (1-3) @ Indianapolis (0-4)
Oakland (2-2) @ Houston (3-1)
Arizona (1-3) @ Minnesota (0-4)
New Orleans (3-1) @ Carolina (1-3)
Seattle (1-3) @ NY Giants (3-1)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (3-1) @ San Francisco (3-1)
San Diego (3-1) @ Denver (1-3)
NY Jets (2-2) @ New England (3-1)
Sunday Night -
Green Bay (4-0) @ Atlanta (2-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (2-2) @ Detroit (4-0)
Byes -
Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, Miami, St. Louis, Washington
Based on four weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
Nice slate this week. Obviously, the Seahawks will lose - West Coast traveling to East Coast for an early game rule in effect. I'm tempted to use that rule on Arizona, but they're only traveling to Central time and the Vikings are awful, so there. The Bills face the desperate Eagles after suffering their first loss - which team reacts to adversity better? Tough call. I think we can officially put every Carolina game in "trap game" status for the other team - the Panthers won't win a lot of games this year, but will be better than their record and good to beat anyone on any given Sunday; I'm still not picking them yet, though. I'm also not ready to pick the Colts to beat anybody - not even the Chiefs. The Tampa Bay and San Francisco game should be educational - it's a big game for those teams as they try to preserve 1-loss records. Pittsburgh has to beat Tennessee, but the Titans are playing some tough ball. Like Philly, though, the Steelers need a win to boost themselves. I think one of the Pennsylvania teams wins this week and the other's downward spiral steepens. Normally, I'd like Houston at home over Oakland - but not with Andre Johnson gone. Gonna be a lot of running the ball in that game.
My sincere hope is for an undefeated Packers team to meet an undefeated Lions team on Thanksgiving - that'd be intense. But I feel like that's unlikely and that something will give this week. Am I picking against either team right now? Hell no. But Matt Ryan's Falcons have only lost twice at home and the Lions have yet to play a complete game. Will Matt Ryan's success at home continue against an awful Packer pass defense? Will the sloppy first half play of the Lions finally catch up to them? I could see these scenarios playing out, but I'm not going to try and predict upsets here yet.
In other news, I have a bone to pick with the NFL. This whole new rule where every scoring play is reviewed is absolutely bogus. It's extending game times and creating one or two extra commercial breaks each touchdown. I'm settling into a rhythm of getting up after every scoring play because I know it'll be reviewed, no matter how clear it is, and I have time to make a sandwich or grab, drink and grab another beer. It's ridiculous. First of all, it's just not necessary. Secondly, isn't that what coaches' challenges are for? It seems that rules are taking challenges more and more out of coaches' hands. Leave it alone. This is a fix for something that wasn't broken and it's infuriating as a fan.
As for my survival picks, which have been completely bad this year, this week is a tougher one. I'd probably take the NY Giants as the surest pick, with secondary considerations to New Orleans and San Diego. But the Giants are only home team of those three, which gives them an edge for me, especially against a West Coast team. Easy one this week, I think.
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