Last week saw a repeat of 9-7, putting my season mark at 149-91.
Let's see if I can turn out a great finale to tie or break last year's record of 161-95.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3)
Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12)
Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1)
Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5)
Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11)
San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13)
NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10)
Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3)
Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6)
Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6)
Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11)
Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7)
San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7)
Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7)
After sixteen weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
For the early games -
I think New England's B-squad can torch Buffalo. Besides, I think New England pushes for the 1-seed.
A depleted Minnesota team against a depleted Chicago team. I just feel like Chicago is due for a win here.
I think Detroit comes into Lambeau with an attitude, fighting for the 5-seed, while Green Bay just wants to stay (and get) healthy for the playoffs. The game just means more to the Lions.
Houston's in a must-win situation. Sounds odd, but after embarrassingly dropping their last two games, they need to go into the playoffs with a win for morale.
I still think Jacksonville is better than Indy. MJD will be running for the rushing title.
San Francisco's B-squad should be able to torch the hapless Rams, but I think Harbaugh makes his team play and play for the win, anyway.
Ugh, both the Jets and Dolphins make me want to barf. I'll take Rex's team putting up this week, but it's not enough to make the playoffs anymore, which means we'll get to hear Rex's "We'll win the Super Bowl next year!" speech a little earlier this year.
I love Carolina as an upset this week, winning a game like this to build momentum for next year. But I think Payton, like Harbaugh, will play his team to win this game. The 2-seed is in the air, after all. But this one looks close to me.
Philadelphia crushes Washington, end of story. One team is more talented than the other.
For the afternoon games -
What happened to Tampa Bay? Ouch. Atlanta wins, even if they don't have anything to play for, in terms of playoff picture. Mike Smith knows they want to go into the playoffs against whomever they face with a win.
Baltimore wants the 2-seed. This game should be close, should be entertaining, but I think Baltimore closes it out.
Pittsburgh, likewise, will be pushing for that 2-seed, and even then, their B-squad can beat Cleveland.
It's the Kyle Orton revenge game, helming the Chiefs as they head to Mile High. Orton outperforms Tebow and knocks the Broncos out of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Raiders knock off the Chargers, sending them to the playoffs and ending the Norv Turner era of underachievement in San Diego.
How is Arizona on the verge of 8-8? Didn't they start 1-6? That's pretty impressive, but I like Seattle to build more momentum for next year.
Sunday Night -
Game of the Week here. Winner takes the NFC East and the 4-seed to most likely be a first-round exit in the playoffs. Both teams are hopelessly flawed in areas. But you know what? I like Romo way more than Eli and the Giants almost always drop the game right after a big win. After squashing the Jets last week, I feel like the Giants lay an egg here. Besides, Dallas will be out for revenge after that debacle the last time these two teams played.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 16
Almost there; two weeks left. Last week I went 9-7, putting my season at 140-82.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
For this week:
Thursday Night -
Houston (10-4) @ Indianapolis (1-13)
Saturday at 1:00pm ET -
Denver (8-6) @ Buffalo (5-9)
Arizona (7-7) @ Cincinnati (8-6)
Cleveland (4-10) @ Baltimore (10-4)
Jacksonville (4-10) @ Tennessee (7-7)
Oakland (7-7) @ Kansas City (6-8)
St. Louis (2-12) @ Pittsburgh (10-4)
Miami (5-9) @ New England (11-3)
Minnesota (2-12) @ Washington (5-9)
NY Giants (7-7) @ NY Jets (8-6)
Tampa Bay (4-10) @ Carolina (5-9)
Saturday at 4:00pm ET -
San Diego (7-7) @ Detroit (9-5)
Philadelphia (6-8) @ Dallas (8-6)
San Francisco (11-3) @ Seattle (7-7)
Sunday Night -
Chicago (7-7) @ Green Bay (13-1)
Monday Night -
Atlanta (9-5) @ New Orleans (11-3)
After fifteen weeks of play, I'm going with Green Bay over Baltimore in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, the Thursday game -
Anyone think the Indy reels off a late-season winning streak against Houston? Yeah, me neither. The Texans are licking their wounds after a tough loss and I think they bounce back and stay in the running for the top seed in the AFC.
For Saturday, the early games -
Denver is simply better than Buffalo, who has lost 9 straight after a 5-0 start. Ouch.
Has anyone else noticed that Arizona keeps winning games? They're 6-1 over their last seven. In fact, they're 5-1 with John Skelton as their starter. No one's noticing over all the Tebow hype, though.
Baltimore should be ready for an angry division game after getting scorched by San Diego on national TV. But this is a good litmus test for them - lose to Cleveland at home, and maybe it's in their best interests after all to let homefield advantage slip away. They might be a better road team, who gets more amped up being on enemy turf.
Tennessee is fading, but they should be able to stop the Jaguars' offense (see: MJD) sufficiently to pick up a win and keep their extremely slim playoff hopes alive.
Oakland's coming off of a very hard loss to Detroit, whereas Kansas City is coming off of a very huge win over Green Bay. I'd normally take Oakland and chalk up a "big-time win = follow-up loss" formula for Kansas City, but not at Arrowhead. I like Kansas City at home and I think Kyle Orton makes them dangerous.
Pittsburgh should crush St. Louis after an excruciating loss to San Francisco, also on national TV. It doesn't even matter who starts at QB or if power is on at the stadium.
New England, the current 1-seed in the AFC, should obliterate Miami. The 1-seed is theirs for the taking and I doubt they'll let it slip.
Minnesota has shown little lately other than Joe Webb lighting up the Lions. But I think Washington has a "big-time win = follow-up loss" game after decimating the Giants last week. I have no faith in the Redskins to hold it together, so I like Minnesota to sneak in a win here with a heavy dose of AP, a more conservative Ponder and a voracious Jared Allen.
The Battle of the Meadowlands - I'm taking the Giants. The Jets haven't shown me a lot this season and the Giants almost always have a big game after they get blown out. They got blown out last week. NY Giants' logic follows that everyone loses faith and picks against them, and then the Giants show up and blaze their opponent. You'll see.
What happened to Tampa Bay? They were such a great story last season, and now they're going to get steamrolled by the Carolina Cam Newtons. Oh well.
Saturday's later games -
I want to pick Detroit. I want to say they're going to blast into the playoffs with confidence. After all, they only have to win one of these next two games to clinch a Wild Card spot. But I don't feel it. They've had two razor-thin wins against a mediocre Raiders team and a bad Vikings team. Meanwhile, the Chargers are one of the best teams of recent history in December - Philip Rivers has only lost twice in December in his career. My heart is Honolulu Blue & Silver, but my brain says the Chargers win. This would huge implications on the playoffs: see below.
Dallas over Philly. Please. I'm tired of the Eagles. Their playoff hopes are dead, they've got nothing to play for other than the dignity they lost earlier this year, and Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win. I think they make it happen.
Seattle will stun the 49ers. Why? Because the Seahawks are better than we give them credit for, they're at home, the 49ers are coming off a big win, and the Seahawks winning sets up a more entertaining Week 17. Oh, and the 49ers losing sets up the Saints to take the 2-seed, which sets up a very entertaining Wild Card match.
Sunday Night -
Please. The Bears are pitiful. Who knew Cutler was so important to the offense? Forte, of course, but Cutler? I guess he deserves more credit than I give him. Oh, and how pissed is Green Bay going to be after that loss? Oh man.
Monday Night -
Atlanta's playoff hope is pretty much set in stone now. They're locked in as the 5-seed. They can't break higher than that and they own the tiebreakers for the 5-seed, so they're set. New Orleans, meanwhile, is at home, and playing for the 2-seed. Saints roll on.
--
So, here's the thing. If Detroit loses, they go to 9-6. If Seattle and Arizona win, they go to 8-7. Make no mistake - Detroit is in charge of its playoff destiny here; Detroit needs only win one to be in. Seattle and Arizona both would need to win both games and have Detroit lose both to have a chance. Now, thing is - Seattle would own the tiebreaker scenario between all three. If Seattle wins out and Detroit loses out, Seattle makes the playoffs. If Seattle loses one, but Arizona wins out and Detroit loses out, Arizona makes it in, because they have a better tiebreaker than Detroit, also. Detroit has a difficult finish ahead - San Diego, a.k.a. Team December, at home; then on the road to Green Bay. Both are realistic opportunities to win. Detroit is, in my opinion, a better team than San Diego. But Detroit keeps letting mediocre teams hang on; what happens against a team like San Diego, which is arguably better than mediocre, especially in December? As for Green Bay, well, it's possible that's easier than it looks because the Packers rest starters in Week 17. Really, it's a shame they lost. My dream scenario was for the 15-0 Packers to face a 9-6 Lions team that needed to "win to get in" - and the Lions could go on, at Lambeau, to shatter the Packers' undefeated season and clinch a playoff berth at the same time. Would have been nice.
But really, this all comes down to this: What kind of team are the Lions now? Two games to go. Win one, you're in. Totally in charge of your playoff destiny. Does this team rise to the challenge, by beating San Diego or Green Bay? Do they limp in meekly, acquiring their slot by their fellow contenders losing? Or do they somehow let it slip away and watch the Seahawks or Cardinals claim the 6-seed? Hope tells me they make it happen. History tells me to prepare for disappointment. If nothing else, at least it's something to keep me entertained as the season wraps up.
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - Week 15
Last week, I went 8-8, putting my season mark at 131-75.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
I'll note at this point that last year I finished 161-95; we'll see how I match up against myself from last year as the season ends.
This week -
Thursday Night -
Jacksonville (4-9) @ Atlanta (8-5)
Saturday Night -
Dallas (7-6) @ Tampa Bay (4-9)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Miami (4-9) @ Buffalo (5-8)
Seattle (6-7) @ Chicago (7-6)
Cincinnati (7-6) @ St. Louis (2-11)
Green Bay (13-0) @ Kansas City (5-8)
Tennessee (7-6) @ Indianapolis (0-13)
New Orleans (10-3) @ Minnesota (2-11)
Washington (4-9) @ NY Giants (7-6)
Carolina (4-9) @ Houston (10-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Detroit (8-5) @ Oakland (7-6)
Cleveland (4-9) @ Arizona (6-7)
New England (10-3) @ Denver (8-5)
NY Jets (8-5) @ Philadelphia (5-8)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (10-3) @ San Diego (6-7)
Monday Night -
Pittsburgh (10-3) @ San Francisco (10-3)
After fourteen weeks of play, I'm still backing Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night, well, I don't think MJD can carry his team past an Atlanta squad desperate to hold onto their playoff seed. The NFC Wild Card race is going to be tight and if they drop a winnable game to the Jaguars, they could fall fast. I think Atlanta has the weapons to win this, especially at home.
For Saturday Night, it's rather tempting to pick against Dallas, which can't close anyone out this year. And honestly, if it were anyone other than Tampa Bay, I might. But the Bucs look completely inept this season and I think even the Cowboys can finish a win against them and keep pace in the NFC East race.
For the Sunday early games -
I don't like Buffalo or Miami, but I won't pick the team that just lost its coach. I think the Bills squeak this one out.
Chicago looks lost. I want to say they'll be angry after the loss to Denver, but I just don't know what they're going to do. They don't score with Caleb Hanie. The Seahawks can put the ball in Marshawn Lynch's hands, control the clock, put up some points, and take this game, effectively ending Chicago's playoff hopes.
St. Louis is maybe the worst team in the league, at least offensively. Cincinnati will roll over them.
Green Bay, likewise, should obliterate the Chiefs, who just saw Todd Haley fired.
Tennessee might have a tougher round of it, but they should also roll over the completely hapless Colts team.
New Orleans, also, should destroy a wounded Vikings team coming off of a tough loss to Detroit.
The Giants are as unpredictable as anyone this year, but I have trouble imagining they'd drop a game to Washington as Dallas breathes down their neck for the NFC East title.
I think Carolina/Houston has all the makings for a trap game for Houston. Carolina can play. But Houston's being efficient and finding ways to do what they need to do to win. I think they escape the trap.
Sunday's later games -
I really don't like Oakland or Detroit a lot right now - both teams have good things about them, both teams have bad things... like, you know, committing lots of penalties. No matter who wins this game, assume there'll be lots of yellow in the air. I think Detroit is the better team here, the more consistent team, and the less turnover-prone team. There's no reason to think that the Lions defense won't pressure Palmer into some bad decisions and take advantage. Jason Campbell is laughing somewhere.
Cleveland and Arizona, what a stinker. The Cardinals find ways to win games, and I think they'll do that here.
New England had best put this Tebow nonsense to rest. If the Broncos somehow win this game, it's going to become absolutely insufferable. But I don't think the Broncos can keep up on the scoreboard, so unless the Broncos D plays absolutely out of its mind, I see the Patriots winning this by two possessions or so.
The way Shonn Greene is running lately, is there any reason to assume he won't gut the weak Philly defense? I can't see the Eagles winning this game, especially with the Jets trying to fight their way into the playoffs.
Sunday Night -
Baltimore has had their moments of inconsistency this year, but not like San Diego. The Chargers find ways to lose too often, but I don't think they'll need a lot of help with that here.
Monday Night -
Easily the best game of the week. What a rough-and-tumble game this ought to be, between two teams preparing for the playoffs. But I like San Francisco over a dinged up Steelers team that I don't have complete faith in. If Big Ben were completely healthy, it might be different, but I think the 49ers make a statement here.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 14
Last week saw me at 11-5 again, bumping my mark to 123-67.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Cleveland (4-8) @ Pittsburgh (9-3)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-5) @ Carolina (4-8)
Houston (9-3) @ Cincinnati (7-5)
Minnesota (2-10) @ Detroit (7-5)
New Orleans (9-3) @ Tennessee (7-5)
Indianapolis (0-12) @ Baltimore (9-3)
Kansas City (5-7) @ NY Jets (7-5)
Philadelphia (4-8) @ Miami (4-8)
New England (9-3) @ Washington (4-8)
Tampa Bay (4-8) @ Jacksonville (3-9)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-5) @ Denver (7-5)
San Francisco (10-2) @ Arizona (5-7)
Buffalo (5-7) @ San Diego (5-7)
Oakland (7-5) @ Green Bay (12-0)
Sunday Night -
NY Giants (6-6) @ Dallas (7-5)
Monday Night -
St. Louis (2-10) @ Seattle (5-7)
After thirteen weeks of play, I'm going back to Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So. Thursday Night. Well, not much to say here. This is a snooze, Pittsburgh will roll.
For the early Sunday games -
I think Carolina has a legitimate upset chance here, but Atlanta has to win and keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and I still think they're the better team, likely to play angry after losing to Houston.
Speaking of Houston - I still like them as the AFC's Super Bowl team, but I think they got a little lucky in Atlanta and a Cincy team licking its wounds after two in-division losses comes out hot in their bid to stay alive in the playoff hunt.
Detroit has to beat Minnesota - and should. A loss here derails the Lions season entirely.
New Orleans, on the road, outside, has a tougher test in Tennesee than people probably realize. The way Chris Johnson has been running, and with Tennessee in the more perilous playoff position, I actually like the Titans here.
Baltimore over Indy, no explanation here, although if you look at Baltimore's losses, this fits the bill for a trap game for them.
The Jets have to win to keep pace in the AFC race and I think they're good enough to beat up on Kansas City.
Miami's simply the better team over Philadelphia right now; the Eagles are in full implosion mode, no reason to think they'll win again this year.
The Patriots will steamroll the Redskins, this one seems obvious.
Tampa Bay and Jacksonville might prove entertaining. I'm not really sure who to like here and if Josh Freeman is out again, it's not unreasonable to think MJD carries the Jaguars, but... I'll take the Bucs.
For Sunday's later games -
I think Tebow has to lose sooner or later. Chicago is still a team that can win, even without Cutler or Forte. The Bears have to avoid implosion and take charge of a playoff picture they're leading. I think they pull the upset this week against a Broncos team that people are really favoring for the first time.
San Francisco ought to roll over a really hapless-looking Cardinals team. You know, provided they don't ice their own kicker.
Buffalo... I give up. Chargers win this. But both teams aren't good. Buffalo's lost 7 straight and San Diego tends to find ways to lose. I'm actually going to take the Bills here.
Green Bay is going undefeated, at least until Week 17.
Sunday Night - I simply think Dallas is a better team. The Giants are prone to letdowns after monumental efforts and they really put on a show last week against Green Bay, making everyone think they're better than they are. Likewise, Dallas isn't as bad as it was against Arizona. Reality reasserts.
Monday Night - Ugh, another stinker. Seattle rolls over a Rams team that looks completely lost. I bet Pat Shurmur wishes he stayed the Rams OC instead of becoming the Browns head coach.
Friday, December 2, 2011
What sports can mean to a person...
Steve Yzerman returned to the Joe Louis Arena in Detroit this past week for a game in which his Tampa Bay Lightning faced off against the Detroit Red Wings. I caught the game on Versus, as I typically try to catch Red Wings games when they're on. You see, the Red Wings are the most important sports team there is to me.
I'm not sure why that is. We have the Red Wings, the Tigers, the Lions and the Pistons in Detroit. Professional basketball stopped appealing to me by the turn of the millennium and really, even before that, the Pistons were never a team I had my eye on - they often put up solid teams, but never a marquee guy you watched for - no Jordan or Ewing or Magic. And we got to see a lot of Jordan in Detroit. There really was no act in basketball in the '90s that compared. But that's another discussion for another day. The Tigers were decent - they had memorable guys like Cecil Fielder and remarkable guys like Lou Whittaker and Alan Trammel. But they didn't contend in the '90s like they did in the '80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders, who was to the NFL what Jordan was to the NBA. That might be an exaggeration, but it felt like it to Detroiters - and quite frankly, there's never been anyone like Barry. But the Lions were never particularly great, either.
Sometimes in sports, a team captures magic. You can feel it around them. I felt it with the Red Wings before anyone else and it's for that reason that the Wings are first and foremost in my heart. I'll remember the moment vividly for all my life - I'm sitting up as a kid, 12 or 13 years old, watching Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It's at Joe Louis. It's against the Philadelphia Flyers, who were favored to win the series, and yet, these young, upstart Red Wings have a 3-0 series lead and a 1-0 lead in the game in the second period. And Darren McCarty takes a pass at center ice. He pulls out a truly awesome deke on the Flyers' defenseman, then follows it up with another on All-Star goalie Ron Hextall, backhanding the puck into a virtually empty net. I remember being absolutely slack-jawed. It was a move you expected from Wayne Gretzky. McCarty was our enforcer - our resident beat-'em-up bad boy. He didn't score goals, at least not like that. And yet, there it was. And the Joe Louis Arena erupted. I'd never seen anything like it. The place went nuts. Right there, right then, that series ended and everyone knew it. The Red Wings knew it. The fans knew it. The Flyers knew it. The place rocked for the rest of the game. There was magic in it, magic I still see and feel when I see replays or videos of it now. It just coursed through the place. I knew, when that puck hit the net, when the Joe erupted, that my team was going to win it all. It wasn't the first Detroit sports championship of my lifetime, but it was the first I was actively cheering for; the first I was emotionally invested in.
A week later, Vladimir Konstantinov, a Red Wings defenseman, was in a car crash with a team masseuse and chauffeur. Konstantinov was paralyzed. It was a sobering moment for a city that was still celebrating. I remember it being a shock, as if a family member or, at least, a good friend had been hurt. I remember there being vigils. I remember the city pouring its heart out to a man whose only words in English had come through a translator. But he was one of ours. He was a Red Wing. When the season started, it was never spoken that I can recall, but it seemed like everyone knew... the Wings played knowing it, the fans seemed to know - we were going to win the Stanley Cup again, for Vladimir Konstantinov. We did. And when the buzzer went off and the game ended, who was wheeled onto the ice but Vladimir Konstantinov, in his jersey. And when Steve Yzerman handed the Cup off, it was to set it on Konstantinov's lap. The team surrounded him at that time, a moment that I have a photograph of, set onto a marble plaque that hangs in my office, because of what that meant. Because that's the kind of team the Red Wings are. It's the kind of city Detroit is. It's a big part of why I'll always hold the Red Wings a bit higher than the Tigers, Lions and Pistons. And sure, a long playoff-appearance streak helps. They're the winningest Detroit team of my life. But that's not my first thought. I think of guys who spend their careers in Detroit - Yzerman and Lidstrom, for example. I think of the Joe Louis Arena erupting, of the magic of that fateful McCarty goal. I think of Vladimir Konstantinov, on the ice in a wheelchair, the Stanley Cup on his lap and the Red Wings surrounding him. That's what I think of.
Sports are a trivial thing on the surface. Men battling each other to throw or hit an object into a larger receptacle for metaphysical points. On the surface, it doesn't mean a lot. And yet, somehow, these contests define entire cities, entire populations. People gravitate towards them. They bleed for the game. Fans weep tears of sorrow, tears of joy. Because sports go beyond the game itself, you know. It's about people, about relationships. It's about magic and destiny. It's about someone like Vladimir Konstantinov, paralyzed in a horrible accident, being on the ice for the celebration a year later. It's about Steve Yzerman playing his entire career as a Red Wing, being an icon to the city, growing up in front of the eyes of every Detroit hockey fan, from being a wide-eyed 19 year-old to growing up to be the face of the franchise, becoming a leader before our eyes. It's about watching a city's worth of people set aside multitudes of difference in favor of a single commonality - loyalty to a sports team.
Yzerman returned to Detroit this week. The Red Wings did him the honor of a brief video tribute during the first commercial break; the fans did him the honor of a deserved standing ovation. We love Steve Yzerman, or Stevie Y as we know him, in Detroit. Steve Yzerman, a good sport, came to the ice to wave to the crowd as it ended, to receive the honor. But he looked the slightest bit uncomfortable during it. But that's Stevie Y - he never hogged a spotlight. It was always about the team, always about the game. And for him, it still is, it always will be. It was an unavoidable event - a tribute to Yzerman on his first game back in Detroit after leaving. It was a formality on all sides; something the Red Wings were obligated to do, something that Yzerman knew would happen. He deserves every tribute, but he's not the kind of person who focuses on that or really cares; he's about the game, about his team, about getting points on that night. That attitude is his legacy, the one that builds champions, the one that earns these inconvenient tributes. In the era of the diva athlete, it's no wonder that Detroit loves Steve Yzerman, it's no wonder that we admire him and we love the Red Wings he helped build. He just went to work, did his job, and built something wonderful.
I'm not sure why that is. We have the Red Wings, the Tigers, the Lions and the Pistons in Detroit. Professional basketball stopped appealing to me by the turn of the millennium and really, even before that, the Pistons were never a team I had my eye on - they often put up solid teams, but never a marquee guy you watched for - no Jordan or Ewing or Magic. And we got to see a lot of Jordan in Detroit. There really was no act in basketball in the '90s that compared. But that's another discussion for another day. The Tigers were decent - they had memorable guys like Cecil Fielder and remarkable guys like Lou Whittaker and Alan Trammel. But they didn't contend in the '90s like they did in the '80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders, who was to the NFL what Jordan was to the NBA. That might be an exaggeration, but it felt like it to Detroiters - and quite frankly, there's never been anyone like Barry. But the Lions were never particularly great, either.
Sometimes in sports, a team captures magic. You can feel it around them. I felt it with the Red Wings before anyone else and it's for that reason that the Wings are first and foremost in my heart. I'll remember the moment vividly for all my life - I'm sitting up as a kid, 12 or 13 years old, watching Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Finals. It's at Joe Louis. It's against the Philadelphia Flyers, who were favored to win the series, and yet, these young, upstart Red Wings have a 3-0 series lead and a 1-0 lead in the game in the second period. And Darren McCarty takes a pass at center ice. He pulls out a truly awesome deke on the Flyers' defenseman, then follows it up with another on All-Star goalie Ron Hextall, backhanding the puck into a virtually empty net. I remember being absolutely slack-jawed. It was a move you expected from Wayne Gretzky. McCarty was our enforcer - our resident beat-'em-up bad boy. He didn't score goals, at least not like that. And yet, there it was. And the Joe Louis Arena erupted. I'd never seen anything like it. The place went nuts. Right there, right then, that series ended and everyone knew it. The Red Wings knew it. The fans knew it. The Flyers knew it. The place rocked for the rest of the game. There was magic in it, magic I still see and feel when I see replays or videos of it now. It just coursed through the place. I knew, when that puck hit the net, when the Joe erupted, that my team was going to win it all. It wasn't the first Detroit sports championship of my lifetime, but it was the first I was actively cheering for; the first I was emotionally invested in.
A week later, Vladimir Konstantinov, a Red Wings defenseman, was in a car crash with a team masseuse and chauffeur. Konstantinov was paralyzed. It was a sobering moment for a city that was still celebrating. I remember it being a shock, as if a family member or, at least, a good friend had been hurt. I remember there being vigils. I remember the city pouring its heart out to a man whose only words in English had come through a translator. But he was one of ours. He was a Red Wing. When the season started, it was never spoken that I can recall, but it seemed like everyone knew... the Wings played knowing it, the fans seemed to know - we were going to win the Stanley Cup again, for Vladimir Konstantinov. We did. And when the buzzer went off and the game ended, who was wheeled onto the ice but Vladimir Konstantinov, in his jersey. And when Steve Yzerman handed the Cup off, it was to set it on Konstantinov's lap. The team surrounded him at that time, a moment that I have a photograph of, set onto a marble plaque that hangs in my office, because of what that meant. Because that's the kind of team the Red Wings are. It's the kind of city Detroit is. It's a big part of why I'll always hold the Red Wings a bit higher than the Tigers, Lions and Pistons. And sure, a long playoff-appearance streak helps. They're the winningest Detroit team of my life. But that's not my first thought. I think of guys who spend their careers in Detroit - Yzerman and Lidstrom, for example. I think of the Joe Louis Arena erupting, of the magic of that fateful McCarty goal. I think of Vladimir Konstantinov, on the ice in a wheelchair, the Stanley Cup on his lap and the Red Wings surrounding him. That's what I think of.
Sports are a trivial thing on the surface. Men battling each other to throw or hit an object into a larger receptacle for metaphysical points. On the surface, it doesn't mean a lot. And yet, somehow, these contests define entire cities, entire populations. People gravitate towards them. They bleed for the game. Fans weep tears of sorrow, tears of joy. Because sports go beyond the game itself, you know. It's about people, about relationships. It's about magic and destiny. It's about someone like Vladimir Konstantinov, paralyzed in a horrible accident, being on the ice for the celebration a year later. It's about Steve Yzerman playing his entire career as a Red Wing, being an icon to the city, growing up in front of the eyes of every Detroit hockey fan, from being a wide-eyed 19 year-old to growing up to be the face of the franchise, becoming a leader before our eyes. It's about watching a city's worth of people set aside multitudes of difference in favor of a single commonality - loyalty to a sports team.
Yzerman returned to Detroit this week. The Red Wings did him the honor of a brief video tribute during the first commercial break; the fans did him the honor of a deserved standing ovation. We love Steve Yzerman, or Stevie Y as we know him, in Detroit. Steve Yzerman, a good sport, came to the ice to wave to the crowd as it ended, to receive the honor. But he looked the slightest bit uncomfortable during it. But that's Stevie Y - he never hogged a spotlight. It was always about the team, always about the game. And for him, it still is, it always will be. It was an unavoidable event - a tribute to Yzerman on his first game back in Detroit after leaving. It was a formality on all sides; something the Red Wings were obligated to do, something that Yzerman knew would happen. He deserves every tribute, but he's not the kind of person who focuses on that or really cares; he's about the game, about his team, about getting points on that night. That attitude is his legacy, the one that builds champions, the one that earns these inconvenient tributes. In the era of the diva athlete, it's no wonder that Detroit loves Steve Yzerman, it's no wonder that we admire him and we love the Red Wings he helped build. He just went to work, did his job, and built something wonderful.
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 13
Last week was 11-5, making my season mark 112-62.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Philadelphia (4-7) @ Seattle (4-7)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (7-4) @ Houston (8-3)
Tennessee (6-5) @ Buffalo (5-6)
Kansas City (4-7) @ Chicago (7-4)
Cincinnati (7-4) @ Pittsburgh (8-3)
Denver (6-5) @ Minnesota (2-9)
Indianapolis (0-11) @ New England (8-3)
Oakland (7-4) @ Miami (3-8)
NY Jets (6-5) @ Washington (4-7)
Carolina (3-8) @ Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (8-3) @ Cleveland (4-7)
Dallas (7-4) @ Arizona (4-7)
Green Bay (11-0) @ NY Giants (6-5)
St. Louis (2-9) @ San Francisco (9-2)
Sunday Night -
Detroit (7-4) @ New Orleans (8-3)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-7) @ Jacksonville (3-8)
After twelve weeks of play, I like Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday Night - what's to like about this game? Neither team is particularly good. The Eagles are floundering and given DeSean's Jackson's antics and the ever-increasing injury report, that they've given up. The Seahawks play good on occasion; they're streaky. But I like a young team at home looking to the future versus a team on a lost season with nothing left to play for. Except maybe Andy Reid's job, but it seems to me he's had many instances where he's tried to coach himself out of Philly but ownership didn't notice.
For Sunday's early games -
I still like Houston. What can I say? I don't care who their quarterback is. When you can hand-off or dump-off to Arian Foster and Ben Tate all day, it helps a guy out. You're going to see 8- or 9-man fronts and it'll leave open receivers downfield. They'll run the ball a lot and they'll do it well. I still think they're a top-3 team in the AFC, but without a competent quarterback, they'll exit the playoffs earlier than they would have with Matt Schaub. And on a sidenote, how horrible for Matt Leinart - he had a perfect opportunity to rehab his career and all it took was one injury to derail that chance. What're the odds he gets a chance like that again? Pretty slim. And really, what have the Falcons given us to believe in? Streaky team that beats bad teams and loses to good ones. Houston is a good one. Speaking of Houston - why aren't they calling David Garrard?
I'm off the Buffalo bandwagon. I'm not entirely on the Tennessee bandwagon, but if Chris Johnson gets his motor going again like he did last week, well, it makes them a strong Wild Card contender, if you ask me. They know, also, that with Houston's QB problems, some wins could - improbably - net them the division. Tennessee wants this game more.
I'm tempted to take Kansas City here - a team that plays a much stouter defense, usually, than anyone seems to realize (partly because of the occasional blowout this year). And it's a revenge game for Kyle Orton, if he gets the nod in Kansas City. What a coup that pick-up was for the Chiefs, by the way - Orton is a very capable starter (look at what he did in Denver last year with no defense and no running game!). He loses some credit for quitting on the Broncos this year, but who can blame him in all the Tebow hype? Anyway, I could see him turning the Chiefs offense more dynamic and that could be enough against a Bears offense that won't bounce back from QB problems as easily as Houston does. But I'm going to take Forte and the Bears this week anyway, because they know they have to keep pace in the NFC Wild Card race and whoever starts for the Chiefs at QB doesn't have the needed on-field experience with that team to capitalize here.
Cincy and Pittsburgh could be another great feature matchup - that game a couple weeks ago was a good one, too. I think Cincy has every possibility to pull an upset here; I think Pittsburgh is getting slowly exposed as being old on defense and streaky on offense. But it doesn't matter yet; they're still better than most teams and, for this year at least, still better than the Bengals.
I'm taking Minnesota over Denver. Look at Tebow's loss: Detroit - against a team with a shaky, albeit better-than-known secondary, and a stout front-seven. Tebow got chased all over by Detroit's dynamic defensive line and there's no reason Jared Allen won't enjoy similar success in this game, or at least create havoc for his fellow linemen to reap the rewards of. The real match-up here is how the Vikings handle the Broncos pass-rush, particularly Von Miller. They need a healthy Adrian Peterson for this game and, if they have him, I think they can overpower Denver.
Patriots over Colts. No explanation needed. Anyone else realize that these two teams shouldn't meet in the regular season next year and that hasn't happened in... close to a decade?
Raiders over Dolphins. Matt Moore has the Dolphins really clicking, but I just like the Raiders. I still think they're the best team in the weakest division in the AFC and that means they beat teams like the Dolphins. They do it with stout defense, no-name WRs, a backup RB who is as solid as many starters in the league (I bet the Lions wish they had Michael Bush) and Carson Palmer. Go figure.
Jets over Redskins. Both teams are in their own brand of disarray, but the Redskins' is far, far worse.
I'm taking the Panthers over the Bucs. If you could pick one of these teams to root for, wouldn't you take the Panthers? The Bucs have regressed remarkably from their surprising success last year; they seem like a team without an identity. I don't know what to make of them. Meanwhile, the Panthers are playing good, competitive football - I think they're the team on the upswing here and they take a win.
For Sunday's later games -
What happened to Cleveland? I think Colt McCoy has all the makings of a successful pro QB, but man, he needs some weapons. They need to help him out. Name a starter Cleveland has beyond him. Exactly. Greg Little is emerging, but they really need to deepen this roster. It's a bit of a trap game for Baltimore, but the Ravens have to know that if they lose this game, it's a huge shot in the foot. They need it, they'll win it.
Dallas rolls Arizona. Even if Beanie Wells piles up 200 yards again, Dallas is simply the better team here and, I think, a better team than many people are realizing right now.
Packers over Giants. I feel like the Packers are better than the 16-0 Patriots team and have had to navigate a tougher schedule and tougher division. I think the best chance to the Packers losing again is when Detroit comes for revenge at Lambeau in Week 17, but even then... it's hard to believe it. The Giants are good, but they're not as good as the Packers or as good as Dallas. They're a mediocre team, a streaky team, an inconsistent team. They're one of the better mediocre teams out there, but that's all they are.
What happened to St. Louis? Whatever Pat Shurmur had going on offense, Josh McDaniels somehow completely trashed it. You have to trace Bradford's regression to the change in offensive coordinator; the defense still plays relatively well. The 49ers - who I believe are the most fundamentally sound team in the NFL - should get an easy win here.
Sunday Night -
How much do you believe in the Lions? This is a huge game for them, not just for their playoff chances, but as a gut-check and character-check after the Suh debacle all week and after registering a disappointing Thanksgiving Day loss. A win here says they're a team to be feared; a loss says they're a young team still learning how to be disciplined, consistent winners. And let's be honest - what about the Lions makes you think they're disciplined? Yeah, I can't think of anything, either. Factor in a banged-up secondary for the Lions and an aggressive Saints defense that should bait Stafford into more interceptions and I think we have the recipe for the most lop-sided loss of the season for the Lions.
Monday Night -
Another snoozefest on Monday Night this week, with the hapless Chargers against the hapless Jaguars. However, the Jaguars are decidedly more hapless - how will the players react to finding out that their coach is fired and the team is being sold? Tough week. Meanwhile, the Chargers are... well, the Chargers. As has been the trend lately, they're the most fundamentally unsound team in the league and despite being impressive at times, that's why they lose. But they should beat the Jaguars here, I would think - but I find it hard to bet on this one. Still, I'll take a more-dynamic-on-paper Chargers squad. While talking about the Jaguars - how did it take so long for Jack Del Rio to get fired, anyway? That decision seemed to be obvious to me years ago and what was the deal with them letting David Garrard go this year? What a terribly mismanaged team.
Friday, November 25, 2011
The 2011 Detroit Lions, as the turkey digests...
The Lions stand at 7-4 after Thanksgiving, with some tough games and some not-so-tough games yet on the schedule. It still seems realistic, if not likely, that they'll hit my projected 10-6 mark and have a shot at an NFC Wild Card playoff spot. They're a good team for the first time in a decade, a team that should have a winning record every year and should be in playoff contention. But when I watch them play good teams, it becomes evident to me that there's yet a gulf between the Lions and the way playoff-winning teams look.
That's okay. A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time. I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half. But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.
The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen. You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early. I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart. To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive. In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB. Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything. That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.
The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving. First is the penalties. They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up. At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have. If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers. Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely. As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert. When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers. They need to clean up the penalties. Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.
The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync. It's not. Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue. After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way. Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had. They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later. Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game. Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having. Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.
Third - Ndamukong Suh. I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique. Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well. He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength. This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders. The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact. On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff. Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.
But I can no longer defend Suh. Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away. On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line. It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play. He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team. A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.
Suh deserved to get ejected. That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator. And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned. Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs. I like that fiery attitude. I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off. Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see. And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem. The NFL should suspend Suh. I expect that to happen. I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh. I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too." It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him. I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.
Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted. I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression. As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world? Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it. It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player. Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it. He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that. But the Detroit Lions need to step up here. Suh is one of the faces of the team. It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation. The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it. They should. At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.
That's okay. A lot of teams have that look, particularly young teams: and the Lions are a young team, winning for the first time. I thought they showed a great deal of mettle against the Packers, especially in that first half. But watching Louis Delmas, Chris Houston and Kevin Smith all leave with injuries in that first half made me think that if they couldn't register points before halftime, things would probably start to go against them.
The propensity of the Lions to fall behind and rally late is something that good teams don't let happen. You play a tight game, but you don't play asleep at the wheel early. I thought the first half of the Green Bay game was a step forward - sure, they were behind, but it was due to missed opportunities and their defense had been stalwart. To do that against the Aaron Rodgers offense was impressive. In fact, take a look at the Lions' wins: TB, KC, MIN, DAL, CHI, CAR; losses: SF, ATL, CHI, GB. Only two of their seven wins have been against teams with winning records, which tells me that the honest truth is that the Lions are benefiting from a weak schedule as much as anything. That's not to say they'll fall off next year if they play a harder schedule; I fully believe this is a team on the rise and they'll continue to improve, but let's be honest - they're reaping some schedule-given benefits this year and learning to win against some soft teams.
The Lions have three glaring issues as we move on from Thanksgiving. First is the penalties. They play undisciplined at times and while I understand that a sort of reckless abandon is part of Schwartz & Gun's pass-rushing scheme, they need to clean it up. At this point, the refs are against the Lions because of the reputation the Lions have. If they see something that looks close, they're going to call it against the Lions, whereas they might not against the Colts or the Packers or the Buccaneers. Sports referring has always shown that teams perceived as dirty (truthfully or not) receive more calls against them because the refs are watching them more closely. As the first half of the Green Bay game went, on every good drive that got into Green Bay territory got stalled by a penalty - resulting in numerous 2nd & 15s or 2nd & 20s that the Lions were unable to convert. When the halftime numbers read a time of possession advantage of 15 minutes and a yardage advantage of over 100, but you're behind, it usually means penalties or turnovers. They need to clean up the penalties. Even if it means two or three games of less aggressive pass-rushing, it's worth it to shed that image of a dirty, over-aggressive team.
The second problem is that the offense isn't in sync. It's not. Stafford is inconsistent, but I believe this is a lack-of-running-game issue. After Kevin Smith went out of the game, the offense stopped clicking the same way. Mo Morris wasn't grabbing extra yards or moving with the same speed and agility that Kevin Smith had. They were slicing the Packers up across the middle and underneath early on, which, if they had been able to continue to do so, would have opened things up over the top later. Hopefully this isn't an issue next year - with Mikel Leshoure healthy and, I would think, Kevin Smith staying on the roster, along with Jahvid Best, the Lions should be putting forth a very dynamic rushing game. Outside of that, it's hard to diagnose the exact problem the offense is having. Calvin Johnson isn't getting as open as he was earlier, but again, it could be a mark of the teams they're winning against that they put up 40 on them but only hang 20 on teams they're losing to.
Third - Ndamukong Suh. I've defended Suh for awhile now, although I've always criticized his technique. Suh strikes me as an intelligent man when he speaks, a guy who wants to win and play well. He strikes me as uniquely powerful, a freakish athlete, who has always been able to compensate a lack of technique with his superior strength. This is becoming problematic in the NFL this year - if you watch tape of Suh, he wraps guys up or hits them high - often around the chest or shoulders. The upward momentum of his hit, combined with the often falling momentum of a runner or blocker going to the ground, causes his arms to slide up the player in question, sometimes resulting in a helmet being popped off, or some incidental helmet-to-helmet contact. On this, I (continue to) fault the Lions' coaching staff. Suh is a superior athlete and if he would tighten up his technique, he'd avoid dumb penalties and become an even better player.
But I can no longer defend Suh. Whether it was a moment of testosterone or adrenaline or an inclination to do dumb, dirty things, Suh crossed a line on Thanksgiving that has me turning away. On a failed third down conversion by the Packers, inside the Lions' 10, to see him grinding some guy's helmet into the turf and then kicking at or stepping on him as he's pulled off... it crosses a line. It crosses a line because, for one, it's blatantly dirty - previous reputation aside, it's straight up dirty, and for two, it's the worst possible time to do it, against the worst possible team, an impressively low-IQ football play. He basically handed the Packers 4 points and sucked the life out of the team. A penalty like that not only gives them fresh downs, but it's like taking the Lions' cumulative morale, gift-wrapping it, and transferring it to the Packers.
Suh deserved to get ejected. That move brought back shades of Albert Haynesworth, when he was a dominant defensive linesman in Tennessee... which makes a person realize, that was when Schwartz was their defensive coordinator. And that, in conjunction with the multitude of penalties, is when I start to get concerned. Schwartz likes to rip off his headpiece and yell at refs. I like that fiery attitude. I wanted to see him ripping Suh's head off. Instead, I see them talking - sure, Schwartz looks heated, but they appeared to be having more of a discussion than I wanted to see. And I start to wonder if this is a systemic coaching problem. The NFL should suspend Suh. I expect that to happen. I want to see the Detroit Lions suspend Suh. I want to see the team take a stance that says "clean up your act; we're holding you accountable too." It disturbs me that we haven't seen that yet; it makes me wonder if the Lions' coaching staff is enabling Suh as it so vigorously has defended him. I was fine with the team defending its player, but I hoped that there was something else happening behind closed doors.
Suh is a young man, a powerful young man who has been highly-touted. I'm sure he enjoys reveling in his strength and gets pretty excited during games, resulting in his aggression. As a second-year player with a true strength advantage over his foes, coming off of a fantastic rookie season, is it surprising for a young man's ego to inflate, to start to feel like he can do what he wants and, when rebuked for it, feel like it's him against the world? Most young men have felt that way, regardless of what they do and how good they are at it. It's up to the coaching staff to educate him, to bring him down to earth and teach him to be a solid player, a disciplined player. Criticize Suh all you want, he deserves it. He deserves an NFL suspension of 2-4 games and a team suspension of 1-2 games after that. But the Detroit Lions need to step up here. Suh is one of the faces of the team. It's on them to say - not just to Suh, but to Detroit, to Lions fans, to the NFL - that they hold him to a high standard and won't stand for him acting like bully, giving the Lions an even dirtier reputation. The Lions are deep enough at defensive line that they could have Suh gone the rest of the year and not take a huge personnel hit from it. They should. At this point in his career, at this point in the rising arc of the young Lions, sending a message that says "we hold you, all of you, accountable, and we expect better" is the most important thing they can do.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 12
Happy Thanksgiving!
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Last week saw me go 9-5, putting my season mark at 101-57.
For this weekend:
Thursday (Thanksgiving) -
Green Bay (10-0) @ Detroit (7-3)
Miami (3-7) @ Dallas (6-4)
San Francisco (9-1) @ Baltimore (7-3)
Sunday @ 1:00pm ET -
Minnesota (2-8) @ Atlanta (6-4)
Buffalo (5-5) @ NY Jets (5-5)
Cleveland (4-6) @ Cincinnati (6-4)
Tampa Bay (4-6) @ Tennessee (5-5)
Carolina (2-8) @ Indianapolis (0-10)
Arizona (3-7) @ St. Louis (2-8)
Houston (7-3) @ Jacksonville (3-7)
Sunday @ 4:00pm ET -
Chicago (7-3) @ Oakland (6-4)
Washington (3-7) @ Seattle (4-6)
Denver (5-5) @ San Diego (4-6)
New England (7-3) @ Philadelphia (4-6)
Sunday Night -
Pittsburgh (7-3) @ Kansas City (4-6)
Monday Night -
NY Giants (6-4) @ New Orleans (7-3)
After eleven weeks of play, I'm sticking with Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
For Thursday's games - I'm on board. I'm a Lions fan, born-and-raised, full into Detroit Thanksgiving football tradition (which I subject my in-laws to). Logic says the Packers win this, but I feel like if any team can exploit the Packers flaws, it's the Lions. And understand - Thanksgiving is our Super Bowl. I have to believe they've had this game circled on the calendar and if Kevin Smith can give another solid performance at RB, the Lions can win this game. Dallas has to beat Miami to stay credible. And San Francisco plays consistent football week-in and week-out, whereas Baltimore... well, they don't.
For Sunday's early games - Atlanta is a good team, Minnesota is not; no reason to expect an upset. The Bills are collapsing and the Jets are going to be out to pound someone after losing to Denver. The Bengals are good and the Browns are not; another game to not expect an upset. Tampa Bay could beat Tennessee, but if the Titans trot out a Jake Locker that a not-too-solid Bucs team has no film on, well, I'll go with the rookie. Carolina should beat Indianapolis, but this has upset potential - one of Indy's last remaining chances to avoid a winless season, but I like the spunk of the young Panthers and have trouble going against them in a game they should clearly win. I have zero faith in Arizona and I think the Rams are just, simply, a better team now with Brandon Lloyd helping Bradford. As for Houston - that's the best team in the AFC, even without Matt Schaub. Put me at QB, I can handoff to Arian Foster and Ben Tate as well as the next guy. It's a great situation for Matt Leinart to reclaim some credibility and I don't think they'll be phased by the change.
For Sunday's later games - I'm totally on-board with Chicago now, whether Caleb Hanie or Kyle Orton starts at QB. I like Oakland, but not as much as Chicago. Seattle should, at home, beat a hapless Redskins team. Denver seems to find ways to win games, whereas San Diego consistently finds ways to lose. The Patriots should spank the terrible Eagles.
For the two later night games - how did Pittsburgh/Kansas City stay on Sunday Night when better options (CHI/OAK?) could have been flexed? Oh well. Pittsburgh should win this game, but they've dropped games to questionable teams this year, and Kansas City is tough at home... but nonetheless, I can't go with the Chiefs here, not with Tyler Palko starting. For Monday, it's a great matchup between two good teams - the Giants can upset, but I'll take the Saints at home, simply based on homefield advantage and the Giants being most likely unable to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 11
Ouch. 5-11 last week.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
92-52 on the season now.
This week:
Thursday Night -
NY Jets (5-4) @ Denver (4-5)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Buffalo (5-4) @ Miami (2-7)
Cincinnati (6-3) @ Baltimore (6-3)
Jacksonville (3-6) @ Cleveland (3-6)
Dallas (5-4) @ Washington (3-6)
Carolina (2-7) @ Detroit (6-3)
Tampa Bay (4-5) @ Green Bay (9-0)
Oakland (5-4) @ Minnesota (2-7)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Seattle (3-6) @ St. Louis (2-7)
Arizona (3-6) @ San Francisco (8-1)
Tennessee (5-4) @ Atlanta (5-4)
San Diego (4-5) @ Chicago (6-3)
Sunday Night -
Philadelphia (3-6) @ NY Giants (6-3)
Monday Night -
Kansas City (4-5) @ New England (6-3)
Byes -
Houston, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
After ten weeks of play, I'm still on board for a Green Bay victory over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
Thursday Night's easy. No offense to the Broncos, but I don't think the Jets let them get away with an option offense and win after completing only two passes. It's not gonna happen. Plus the Jets are going to be in a bad mood after being crushed by the Patriots.
For the early Sunday games... if Buffalo can't beat Miami, well, that's it for them. Same for Detroit over Carolina. Both teams need to rebound now - in fact, I'll predict that if either of them lose this week, they'll miss the playoffs. I'm almost, almost taking Cincinnati over Baltimore. Who can get a handle on the Ravens? They beat Pittsburgh twice, lose to Seattle. Whatever. I like them at home, in their own division, though. But they don't look like a compelling threat in the playoffs, do they? Washington is a mess and I think Dallas, if they get their game straight, is the best team in the NFC East, or at least the most dynamic. Jacksonville and Cleveland is close, but I'm going to play that game again, same as last week - name a game-changer on Cleveland's roster... right. Jacksonville has MJD. Done. Green Bay is going undefeated. Seriously. I'm not even going to rationalize a pick against a Tampa Bay team that is struggling far more than anyone expected. I think the Vikings have upset potential against the Raiders, but with a dinged up secondary, the Raiders will take advantage.
For the later Sunday games... I don't like Seattle on the road, even if they appear to be a better team this year than St. Louis. I think the 49ers are leagues ahead of anyone else in the NFC West (and owe part of their success to the weakness of the division) and won't lose a game in-division. Tennessee has a shot against Atlanta, but Atlanta needs that game more - if Atlanta loses and drops to .500 again, they're basically conceding the division to New Orleans, so in a must-win game at home, I take the Falcons. Meanwhile, I'm sold on the Bears. That team is coming together at just the right time and I think, much like they did to Detroit, they'll capitalize on the mistakes the Chargers are bound to make.
Sunday Night - I think the Eagles are terrible and the Giants are fundamentally sound; although the Giants occasionally have a dumper game, they should know the Cowboys are breathing down their necks and they need to win here. Besides that, have I mentioned the Eagles are really terrible?
Monday Night - The Patriots are going to eviscerate a reeling Chiefs team. If this were in Kansas City, I'd pause, but it's not, so the Patriots will roll. But they'll score less points than people think.
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 10
I went 8-6 last week, giving me a season mark so far of 87-43.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
This week:
Thursday Night -
Oakland (4-4) @ San Diego (4-4)
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
New Orleans (6-3) @ Atlanta (5-3)
Buffalo (5-3) @ Dallas (4-4)
Pittsburgh (6-3) @ Cincinnati (6-2)
St. Louis (1-7) @ Cleveland (3-5)
Denver (3-5) @ Kansas City (4-4)
Tennessee (4-4) @ Carolina (2-6)
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (0-9)
Washington (3-5) @ Miami (1-7)
Arizona (2-6) @ Philadelphia (3-5)
Houston (6-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Baltimore (6-2) @ Seattle (2-6)
Detroit (6-2) @ Chicago (5-3)
NY Giants (6-2) @ San Francisco (7-1)
Sunday Night -
New England (5-3) @ NY Jets (5-3)
Monday Night -
Minnesota (2-6) @ Green Bay (8-0)
Byes -
None. There are no byes this week, yet there are four next week. Someone explain this to me. Seriously.
After nine weeks of play, right now I would predict, again, Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
So - Thursday night's game. The Raiders look like a team that's tanked, jumped the shark. I understand that they didn't like their backups with Jason Campbell hurt, but it looks like Campbell had the locker room and now that he's been unceremoniously replaced, the team just looks flatter. Having McFadden hurt doesn't help, but the Raiders have a very capable guy in Michael Bush. They ought to start impersonating the Houston Texans a bit and work on getting both guys 15+ carries per week right now. Either way, after two weeks, the Carson Palmer experiment is a failure and I don't expect that to change when they face a Chargers team smarting from a last-minute loss to Green Bay.
For the early games on Sunday - I like Atlanta at home against a Saints team that really has yet to impress me all that much. I think the NFC West is a lot weaker than a lot of people think; I don't particularly like any of the teams there for the long haul this year. I still have faith in Buffalo, less than before, but still enough to go over a mediocre Dallas team that's a bit banged up. I think Cincinnati has a change for a very legitimate upset against Pittsburgh, which would be amazing and really throw the AFC North into upheaval, but I expect the Steelers to go to town after losing again to Baltimore - a loss here is a big blow; it's a must-win for the Steelers. I like St. Louis over Cleveland - they've played tough lately and the Browns... well... name a starter other than Colt McCoy who's a real game-changer. Right, I can't think of one either. I still like Kansas City at home, to rebound after being pummeled by the winless Dolphins against a still-mediocre Broncos team, despite their win last week. I have zero faith in Tennessee; the Panthers can get a solid win there. I'm also picking the Colts to win - yes! - only because this game, at home, against Jacksonville, might be their only chance to dodge an 0-16 season. I think there's enough pride there to get the single win. I think Washington and Miami are both awful, but Miami's home record the last two years speaks for itself - pick the away team. I have almost no faith in Philadelphia, but I have less for a punch-less Cardinals team that has proven to me the last two years just how good Kurt Warner was. When his turn for the Hall of Fame comes up, he only needs to bring tape of the '10 and '11 Cardinals to prove his case. I think Houston is the best team in the AFC and should trounce a mediocre Bucs team.
For the three later afternoon games - I think Seattle could play an upset against a Ravens team that is hot one week, cold the next way too often. The Ravens need a win to get some consistency going. The Lions and Bears is the game of the week - a huge game for both teams' playoffs hopes. I like the Lions after a bye, with the Bears on a short week. That's a mismatch in and of itself. But it'll be a good game - the Bears know if they lose, they're three games behind the Lions for, presumably, the second Wild Card later. Big implications there. But the Lions know it too and they'll want it more. And again, bye vs. short week; ouch. I think the Giants can beat the 49ers, but I also lack faith in that team, whereas the 49ers are rock-solid every week. I don't bet against consistency like that.
For Sunday Night - well, I'm off the Patriots. They're being exposed. They have a terrible pass defense, a terrible defense in general, and as has been noted this week - no deep threat to complement their short passing game. Teams are noticing that if you jam the receivers at the line, you get pressure on Brady and he'll make mistakes. I think the Jets are peaking at the right time for this game as the Patriots continue to nosedive.
For Monday Night - the Vikings put up a fight the last time these two teams met, but let's be honest - the Packers roll to 9-0 here. The talent gap is just too big.
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 9
Last week was 9-4, putting me at 79-37 on the season thusfar.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (4-3) @ Indianapolis (0-8)
NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2)
Cleveland (3-4) @ Houston (5-3)
Seattle (2-5) @ Dallas (3-4)
Miami (0-7) @ Kansas City (4-3)
Tampa Bay (4-3) @ New Orleans (5-3)
San Francisco (6-1) @ Washington (3-4)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cincinnati (5-2) @ Tennessee (4-3)
Denver (2-5) @ Oakland (4-3)
Green Bay (7-0) @ San Diego (4-3)
St. Louis (1-6) @ Arizona (1-6)
NY Giants (5-2) @ New England (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Baltimore (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-2)
Monday Night -
Chicago (4-3) @ Philadelphia (3-4)
Byes -
Carolina, Detroit, Jacksonville, Minnesota
After eight weeks of play, right now I would predict Green Bay over Houston in Super Bowl XLVI.
I feel like I'm taking too many home teams. I have a hunch that either the Giants, Ravens or Broncos pull a win. One of the three. Mark my words. Just no idea which. Tebow is going to get another ugly win before he gets benched, just hard to say when.
Of the early games...
The Colts are awful. Worst team in the NFL. Peyton Manning is the MVP, obviously. He masked their deficiencies admirably well, although even with him at the helm this year, I don't think they're a playoff team. Defense got old too fast. Oh, and I think Peyton's played his last game. Sorry. Too many neck surgeries. He's done, they'll win the Luck Lottery. I think the Bills are a better team than the Jets - but it'll be high-scoring. If you make me choose between Fitzpatrick and Sanchez in clutch time, I go Fitz. Houston is the best team in the AFC right now, as far as I'm concerned, and I'm not going against them against a worse-than-advertised Cleveland team. Dallas is better than they seem; they have to handle Seattle at home. Miami is as bad as Indianapolis and as we saw this past Monday, Kansas City finds ways to win at home - I never like going against the Chiefs at Arrowhead, even against good teams, so I won't against a bad team. New Orleans will rip Tampa up, even coming off a bye, after their debacle in St. Louis. They have to. San Francisco, also coming off a bye, might be the second-best team in the NFC and should hand it to a Redskins team that seems to have lost its identity (more on that below).
For the afternoon games...
I like Cincinnati, but I think Tennessee is a better team than they've been facing and wants to stay in the hunt. Cincy is a year away from winning a game like this. Denver... well, I think Tebow is a disaster and good teams (see: not Miami or Indianapolis) expose him. Oakland will continue the trend. Green Bay is the best team in the NFL and the Chargers are, in their own special way, one of the worst, so that's a no-brainer to me, but after Monday, the Chargers could surprise... either way, it's a high-scoring game. St. Louis loses to Arizona because they're going to come in overhyped from beating the Saints, the same way the Saints came in overhyped to St. Louis after crushing the Colts like they were a JV softball team playing football. The Giants could surprise against New England - this one is close - but I think the Patriots come out and play one of those nasty Belicheck games after being embarrassed by Pittsburgh last week.
For Sunday Night - this is a tough call, but we should all know that this game has been circled on Pittsburgh's calender since that Week 1 blowout loss. This is a revenge game for them, and the icing on the cake is that it gives them a mighty lead in the division if they win. Baltimore will want it, but can we really count on them for anything right now? Like Washington, they've inexplicably lost their identity, at least on offense. This game just means too much to the Steelers, they return the favor from earlier this year with a blowout of their own.
For Monday Night - do people really believe in the Eagles? That's a bad team. Actually, they're a lot like the Bears - awful offensive line, QB running for his life, one of the most dynamic RBs out there, softer on defense than people think. It could prove to be a high scoring affair. But I tip my hat to the Bears defense, which I think hassles Vick and hems in McCoy more than the Eagles defense will Cutler and Forte.
On Washington and, to a lesser degree, Baltimore now. What is wrong with these teams? Both are good teams. I said it. Baltimore is obviously a good team, we know this. Washington seemed great early on. What happened? Baltimore, for some reason, seems to be spastic on offense. What's with Flacco's decline this year? From what I can tell, it's a shuffled offensive line. If Bryant McKinnie were guarding your blind side these days, you'd probably be nervous, too. That's actually the crux of Baltimore's offensive woes. As for Washington - I have to ask this single question - why was Grossman benched long-term? I understand the short-term benching in that game where he threw four picks against the Eagles. I understand that. Makes sense. But given that he'd been solid up to then (mostly), I didn't feel it warranted a total benching, especially when your next option is John Beck. Especially not when Grossman had bought in - publicly - to Shanahan and the 2011 Redskins. I feel like that, combined with Shanahan's usual merry-go-round at running back, blew up the locker room. The team has been in free-fall since then and why wouldn't it be? Grossman had emerged as a leader of the team and got unceremoniously dumped after one bad game. Beck was respectable against Carolina, but who isn't? Then he got ripped up by the Bills. With the 49ers on tap next, you can't have high hopes. I feel like the team was responding to Grossman's leadership - benching him for the Eagles game was a good move; you say "hey, you mess up, we'll explore our options." But you gotta give him a second chance. If he blows it, then you make a stronger case with your veterans. Instead, we have a Redskins team that looked oh-so-promising in a not-particularly-strong NFC East that has gone into a nosedive. If I'm running that team, I'm thinking about swallowing my pride and giving Rex another shot.
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 8
Oof. Last week saw me sink to 8-5, which puts my season record at 70-33.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
This week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Indianapolis (0-7) @ Tennessee (3-3)
New Orleans (5-2) @ St. Louis (0-6)
Miami (0-6) @ NY Giants (4-2)
Minnesota (1-6) @ Carolina (2-5)
Arizona (1-5) @ Baltimore (4-2)
Jacksonville (2-5) @ Houston (4-3)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Washington (3-3) @ Buffalo (4-2)
Detroit (5-2) @ Denver (2-4)
Cincinnati (4-2) @ Seattle (2-4)
Cleveland (3-3) @ San Francisco (5-1)
New England (5-1) @ Pittsburgh (5-2)
Sunday Night -
Dallas (3-3) @ Philadelphia (2-4)
Monday Night -
San Diego (4-2) @ Kansas City (3-3)
Byes -
Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, NY Jets, Oakland, Tampa Bay
After seven weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the fourth week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
For our early games, well, how can you pick for any of the three winless teams in these matchups? I think all of them have a shot at going winless and joining the '08 Lions, with the Colts looking the most hapless of the bunch. The Rams will squeeze one out eventually, but the Dolphins might not, just due to living in the AFC East. It's possible the Bad Giants will come out to play and the Fins take one here, but I'm not picking it, nor do I think the Colts find sudden mojo against a Titans team that took a beating last week - both have things to prove. Does anyone else think that Caldwell is out of his league as a coach? He inherited a stacked team from Dungy, one that I felt coached itself. Now that the talent pool is dwindling (that's not Caldwell's fault, of course), they just seem uninspired, unmotivated and plain bad. Maybe it's time for Peyton Manning to become the first player-coach in NFL history?
The Vikings/Panthers game could go either way and merits watching to me - both are starting quality rookie quarterbacks that I want to watch. Yes, I believe in Ponder, although I think he may grow up to be more of a Trent Dilfer type of QB - which is okay, as long as he has AP behind him. That's a run-first team and as long as the Vikes stick to that, they'll be okay in the future. Anyway, I still like the Panthers at home in this one. The Vikes defense isn't exactly top-notch anymore and I think they won't be able to scheme completely against Cam Newton. Baltimore has to be steaming after their embarrassing Monday Night loss... they have to beat Arizona here or I'm pushing the panic button on them; I think they keep going for now. As for Jacksonville... enjoy that win, because the euphoria will wear off once Houston slams 'em.
I'm picking the Lions to win this week because they have to - two losses in a row and we're seeing an ugly Lions team come out, one that gets into unnecessary fights and seems to amp itself up by acting like bullies, at least on defense. Meanwhile, the offense looks completely lost. They have to beat Denver, or I'm pushing the panic button here. But the offense will have to roll to do it - I expect Tebow's pocket mobility to inflict some damage on their Wide-9 defense, which has been susceptible to the run. By no means is this a confident Lions pick - it's their first must-win game of the year and if they lose it, possibly their only one. Odd to say about a 5-2 team, but if you saw the Atlanta game last week, I think you'd agree. This team is one loss away from coming apart at the seams.
Cincy/Seattle is an interesting matchup - normally, I'd take Seattle at home, but I like how the Bengals have been playing lately, and coming off of a bye... sure. The Bills should roll a Redskins team that's having an identity crisis, but I'm least confident of all of that pick - the Redskins need to win that game, or they go into a tailspin, too. As for what will almost certainly be a nationally-televised Patriots/Steelers game... it's Patriots, and I'm not even questioning it. Brady owns the Steelers and the Pats are simply the better team this year. And I'm buying the 49ers 100% right now, so they'll beat the Browns.
For Sunday Night, I like neither the Cowboys or Eagles, but someone has to win. I'll take the Eagles at home, coming off a bye over a Cowboys team I don't trust - but this game could go either way and be honest, both teams need to win it. Even if both teams are mediocre teams (they are), this should be an entertaining game. For Monday Night, well, it's not as easy as it looks. San Diego has wins, looks good on paper, but still seems to find ways to lose. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are a tougher opponent at home than you'd think and are rolling hot right now. I still like a better Chargers team, but anything could happen in this one.
So much for liking Oakland or Baltimore last week in survival, but who knew the Raiders would lose Run DMC early and have to try and air it out with Kyle Boller and a rusty Carson Palmer? Oh well.
This week, I like San Francisco, Tennessee and the Giants as obvious picks. I like the 49ers the most of them all. Alternatively, play it safe with Houston.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 7
Last week saw me go 9-4; six teams not playing again.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
This puts my season at 62-28.
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Atlanta (3-3) @ Detroit (5-1)
Chicago (3-3) @ Tampa Bay (4-2)
Seattle (2-3) @ Cleveland (2-3)
Denver (1-4) @ Miami (0-5)
Houston (3-3) @ Tennessee (3-2)
San Diego (4-1) @ NY Jets (3-3)
Washington (3-2) @ Carolina (1-5)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Kansas City (2-3) @ Oakland (4-2)
Pittsburgh (4-2) @ Arizona (1-4)
St. Louis (0-5) @ Dallas (2-3)
Green Bay (6-0) @ Minnesota (1-5)
Sunday Night -
Indianapolis (0-6) @ New Orleans (4-2)
Monday Night -
Baltimore (4-1) @ Jacksonville (1-5)
Byes -
Buffalo, Cincinnati, New England, NY Giants, Philadelphia, San Francisco
After six weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the third week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
As far as picks go, I need to see more out of the Lions before I give up on them completely - more on that below, though. That's a tough game to call, but I like them over a questionable Falcons team on the road. Tampa and Chicago is a tough call too; Tampa has a Jekyll-and-Hyde thing going on this year and Chicago is still not as good as people think... I'll take Tampa at home. Seattle... yeah, still not buying. Miami gave one of the saddest performances of the year on Monday night, and on a short week, I expect them to get obliterated by a Tebow-led Broncos team coming off their bye. Does this mean Tebow will ascend? I don't think so, but expect 2-3 good weeks while teams gather substantial amounts of pro-level film on him... and he should feast on a Miami defense that looked completely disinterested against the Jets. Houston/Tennessee is an interesting matchup; it'll say much about both, but I like Houston more, even without Andre Johnson. San Diego, coming off a bye, over a Jets team on a short week, no question... and I do like Carolina to win this week over a Redskins team in flux, even as teams start to figure out Cam Newton (it's that whole having film thing that helps, as I mentioned re: Tebow above).
For the afternoon games, well they're all four no-brainers pretty much. I like the Chiefs the most out of the underdogs there, but let's face it - those four games and the two night games are your eliminator/survival buffet this week. I don't buy Dallas entirely, and I think St. Louis has to win sooner or later, but with a brand-new Brandon Lloyd and a banged up Bradford? Hm. The Ponder-led Vikings could have a surge against a suspect Green Bay pass defense, too (again, that film thing), but come on, no matter how bad the Packer defense is, Aaron Rodgers makes up for it.
Indianapolis gets another night game, despite being awful. Peyton Manning is the league's MVP among all players injured right now. And how did Jacksonville get a Monday Night ticket? Seriously.
I'm gambling on Dallas as my top survival pick this week, with Pittsburgh (if you didn't use them last week), Oakland, New Orleans, Baltimore and Green Bay all on the table too. If you're feeling frisky, I love Carolina as a ballsy survivor pick this week.
--
Some discussion this week. I like the Lions this year. That's my team. But they have some serious concerns. Let's face it. First up - Jahvid Best with another concussion. That's three in three years. I think the NFL is as shady as it gets about concussions (which are season-ending injuries in baseball and hockey, often enough), and I hope for the young man's future that he ends up shut down for much of the year, if not the rest of it. This leaves the Lions with three RBs on roster - all-purpose Mo Morris, power-back Keiland Williams and the suddenly-damaged Jerome Harrison. That Ronnie Brown trade? Not happening, because Harrison failed his physical. So let's be real and realize they only have two RBs. This bodes poorly because if the Lions are to have a tenuous lead over another team late in a game, they don't have the running game to draw it (and the clock) out. This was part of their loss to San Francisco. Secondly, the Lions have a suspect pass defense, as we all knew. Look at the Chicago game - despite the D-line playing a lights-out game, Cutler had a great stat-line. I'm thinking of 2007 right now, when a less-talented Lions team was 6-2 at the halfway mark. That team floundered, finishing the season 7-9 before going 0-16. Do I think this Lions team has similar woes in store? Of course not. But given the above issues, 5-1 start aside, I wonder about this team going forward. I expect a 10-6 record from them, which means going 5-5 the rest of the way. I think they can still do it, but the euphoria of a 5-1 start may trip them up going forward as they do begin to lose games. Let this team respond better to adversity than the Lions of 2007.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Pierce's Picks - NFL Week 6
A respectable 10-3 record last week in the first week of the year with teams off.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
That puts me at 53-24 so far! Not bad!
For this week:
Sunday at 1:00pm ET -
Carolina (1-4) @ Atlanta (2-3)
Buffalo (4-1) @ NY Giants (3-2)
Indianapolis (0-5) @ Cincinnati (3-2)
San Francisco (4-1) @ Detroit (5-0)
St. Louis (0-4) @ Green Bay (5-0)
Philadelphia (1-4) @ Washington (3-1)
Jacksonville (1-4) @ Pittsburgh (3-2)
Sunday at 4:00pm ET -
Cleveland (2-2) @ Oakland (3-2)
Houston (3-2) @ Baltimore (3-1)
Dallas (2-2) @ New England (4-1)
New Orleans (4-1) @ Tampa Bay (3-2)
Sunday Night -
Minnesota (1-4) @ Chicago (2-3)
Monday Night -
Miami (0-4) @ NY Jets (2-3)
Byes -
Arizona, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego, Seattle, Tennessee
After five weeks of play, right now I would predict, for the second straight week, Green Bay over New England in Super Bowl XLVI.
So, we have some interesting games here. Detroit and San Fran is my marquee game of the week - two good, young teams, facing another good, young team. Which team wins out? Does Detroit stay unbeaten? I like the Lions at home in this one, but it's going to be a lower-scoring game than we'd expect and it'll be close. And mark my words, I live in Minnesota, I'm going to end up with the Rams being blown out by the Packers on FOX instead of the more competitive Lions game. Sigh.
Colts have a chance against the Bengals, but I'm not buying it. The Panthers will pull another close one against Atlanta, but the Falcons need a win and I don't like going against Matty Ice at home. Buffalo and the Giants are both hot; that game says a lot about both teams. The Eagles need to stop the bleeding, but they're up against a rested Washington team coming off a bye who can trounce them in the trenches, where Washington is strongest and Philadelphia weakest. Baltimore/Houston would be tougher to pick if Andre Johnson is healthy... but he's not, and the Ravens are coming off a bye. And we enter our first week where both primetime games are going to be unappetizing at best. Here's hoping they push flex-scheduling Sunday night to earlier in the season sometime soon.
Once again, last week, I made a terrible survival pick, although almost everyone was on the Giants over the Seahawks. Surprise, surprise. That was the first time in ten years the Seahawks had won a 1:00pm ET start on the East Coast. Oh well.
As for this week - Pittsburgh looks like a good matchup; Jacksonville isn't good and the Steelers aren't either, but they're better than the Jags. The Jets look good, but be careful of teams coming off of bye weeks. Bye week teams always have a slight advantage, no matter how bad they are. If you're desperate, you could use Green Bay right now, but I try to save teams like that. Same for the Patriots or Saints. Personally, Pittsburgh is my top survival pick this week, followed by Washington and New Orleans.
In other news, with Tebow starting in Denver now, does Orton get traded? Miami sure could use him now... I'd think there's no way he doesn't get shopped by the Broncos. I can't imagine they intend to retain him after this season, so I'm sure they can find some value for him somewhere. Miami makes the most sense, but what about Washington, or Indianapolis, or Jacksonville? I could see Orton thriving in Washington, with that run-first, strong-in-the-trenches style of play. He did very well in Chicago when they played that way. But that's assuming Washington moves away from Rex Grossman. And how ironic would it be to have Grossman and Orton together again, competing for the job again, on a team that basically plays just like their old one did! I can appreciate irony! Really, though, you have to think Miami goes after him. It just makes sense. Or maybe Seattle.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Al Davis, the Eagles, Tim Tebow and the ALCS.
I'm deviating from my normal format today and offering more discussion and prose than that backed by and supplemented with prediction. It's been a busy, intense weekend in sports and it's worth discussing.
Al Davis.
I'm just a random guy, a football fan blogging when he has time. I didn't know Al Davis. I don't have stories about him. I never played for, or was a fan of, the Raiders. But I do know what Al Davis was to the game. I know the history. We've all had our fun at Al Davis's expense over the last decade. He's gotten older. He's spewed vitriol publicly at former employees like Lane Kiffin. I've described things or events as "Al Davis crazy" in the past years. I've joked about how once Al Davis is gone, that'd leave Jerry Jones as the resident "borderline-senile, overly-enthusiastic, crazy old owner guy" in the NFL. Al is gone now. I think I joked because I never thought the day would come.
Jerry Jones, for all his bluster and gusto, will never measure up to Al Davis. No one will. You've heard plenty about how Al Davis was one-of-a-kind. It's not rhetoric. He was. He climbed the ladder of football, he was a coach and a commissioner, an owner and a scout. He presided over the AFL and, without him, mark my words, the NFL as we know it never happens. It was Davis who aggressively lured NFL players to AFL teams, narrowing the gap between the competing leagues and ultimately forcing the merger. But we remember Davis for not only being a driving force in that event, but for being the dissenting vote, for telling the NFL to stick it and that he'd be content turning the AFL into a superior product and grinding the NFL to dust. Al Davis had balls. He did things his way. He was the maverick of the NFL, the aged rebel, still the league's bad-boy owner to his last day. He was the Raiders. There'll never be another Al Davis. He was the last vestige of the previous era and now he's gone.
Those Eagles...
I saw this coming in Week 3. I'll be honest. I didn't say anything, but maybe I should have. I wasn't ready to blog opinions yet. But when Vick went off in his postgame presser about the refs treating him unfairly, I knew the ship was sinking. When he came out the next week after losing and gave short, nasty answers to a reporter asking a completely fair question, I knew we were sinking even faster. And now the ship is... well, some sportswriter said it was on fire and crashing into the iceberg and I think that's pretty apt. Will they recover? I say no way.
Tebow Time!
Tebow is the starter in Denver now and, quite frankly, it's the right move. Will it result in more wins? Probably not. Maybe one or two early on, but in the long run, I doubt it. Here's a prediction - Tebow looks good for two or three weeks. Maybe even great. Just like Vick in his return last season, before teams get tape on him, Tebow will make plays and maybe get some wins. But once teams have tape, expect his performance to decline. He doesn't have a complete set of tools, but he does have a lot of potential - and given how bad the Broncos are, it really is in the best interests of the team to play Tebow and see what happens. He gets an opportunity to show his stuff and prove himself to John Fox and John Elway. If he's good, he stays. If not, they move him in the offseason and push forward. It's a logical move for a bad team and I give them credit for giving up on the season this early to explore their options for next year. It's bad for short-term wins, but that's a strategy that can pay off long-term.
The ALCS.
In short, the Tigers bats are slumping when they're playing the best bullpen in baseball. Let's be honest - the Tigers can't matchup against the Rangers bullpen, not with all the injuries now. And worse yet is a stat that was said on ESPN today - Cabrera and V-Mart are 1-for-9 in the ALCS, and the Tigers have left 22 men on base. These stats mean two things to me. First, the Tigers are getting opportunities but not cashing in. This is the kind of thing that can turn fast - if they start cashing in, the Tigers roar. But this was a theme against the Yankees too - how many games did they leave runners on base in the first three innings and end up behind later as a result? It's more important against Texas - against that bullpen, if they don't make the starting pitching pay, odds are on Texas later. Game 2 was a perfect example - once Valverde/Coke/Benoit were done, we're going to Ryan Perry to hold Texas in extra innings. If you give me a Mike Adams vs. Ryan Perry inning, I take Adams every time.
Three things have to happen for the Tigers to win the ALCS now: first, Cabrera and V-Mart have to get hitting. If those guys are cold, we're done. Simple as that. Secondly, they need to cash in at least some of the time when runners are on base. In truth, those two problems are the same problem - if the first is solved, it takes care of the second, and if the second is solved, odds are the first is how it got solved. Third, the Tigers have to win every game at home. If they drop any of Games 3-5, they lose in Texas in Game 6. End of series. No kidding.
Starting pitching has been pretty good, all things considered, as good as you can ask against a team like Texas. The good relievers - Coke/Benoit/Valverde - have been solid, too. The bats just need to answer the bell.
Al Davis.
I'm just a random guy, a football fan blogging when he has time. I didn't know Al Davis. I don't have stories about him. I never played for, or was a fan of, the Raiders. But I do know what Al Davis was to the game. I know the history. We've all had our fun at Al Davis's expense over the last decade. He's gotten older. He's spewed vitriol publicly at former employees like Lane Kiffin. I've described things or events as "Al Davis crazy" in the past years. I've joked about how once Al Davis is gone, that'd leave Jerry Jones as the resident "borderline-senile, overly-enthusiastic, crazy old owner guy" in the NFL. Al is gone now. I think I joked because I never thought the day would come.
Jerry Jones, for all his bluster and gusto, will never measure up to Al Davis. No one will. You've heard plenty about how Al Davis was one-of-a-kind. It's not rhetoric. He was. He climbed the ladder of football, he was a coach and a commissioner, an owner and a scout. He presided over the AFL and, without him, mark my words, the NFL as we know it never happens. It was Davis who aggressively lured NFL players to AFL teams, narrowing the gap between the competing leagues and ultimately forcing the merger. But we remember Davis for not only being a driving force in that event, but for being the dissenting vote, for telling the NFL to stick it and that he'd be content turning the AFL into a superior product and grinding the NFL to dust. Al Davis had balls. He did things his way. He was the maverick of the NFL, the aged rebel, still the league's bad-boy owner to his last day. He was the Raiders. There'll never be another Al Davis. He was the last vestige of the previous era and now he's gone.
Those Eagles...
I saw this coming in Week 3. I'll be honest. I didn't say anything, but maybe I should have. I wasn't ready to blog opinions yet. But when Vick went off in his postgame presser about the refs treating him unfairly, I knew the ship was sinking. When he came out the next week after losing and gave short, nasty answers to a reporter asking a completely fair question, I knew we were sinking even faster. And now the ship is... well, some sportswriter said it was on fire and crashing into the iceberg and I think that's pretty apt. Will they recover? I say no way.
Tebow Time!
Tebow is the starter in Denver now and, quite frankly, it's the right move. Will it result in more wins? Probably not. Maybe one or two early on, but in the long run, I doubt it. Here's a prediction - Tebow looks good for two or three weeks. Maybe even great. Just like Vick in his return last season, before teams get tape on him, Tebow will make plays and maybe get some wins. But once teams have tape, expect his performance to decline. He doesn't have a complete set of tools, but he does have a lot of potential - and given how bad the Broncos are, it really is in the best interests of the team to play Tebow and see what happens. He gets an opportunity to show his stuff and prove himself to John Fox and John Elway. If he's good, he stays. If not, they move him in the offseason and push forward. It's a logical move for a bad team and I give them credit for giving up on the season this early to explore their options for next year. It's bad for short-term wins, but that's a strategy that can pay off long-term.
The ALCS.
In short, the Tigers bats are slumping when they're playing the best bullpen in baseball. Let's be honest - the Tigers can't matchup against the Rangers bullpen, not with all the injuries now. And worse yet is a stat that was said on ESPN today - Cabrera and V-Mart are 1-for-9 in the ALCS, and the Tigers have left 22 men on base. These stats mean two things to me. First, the Tigers are getting opportunities but not cashing in. This is the kind of thing that can turn fast - if they start cashing in, the Tigers roar. But this was a theme against the Yankees too - how many games did they leave runners on base in the first three innings and end up behind later as a result? It's more important against Texas - against that bullpen, if they don't make the starting pitching pay, odds are on Texas later. Game 2 was a perfect example - once Valverde/Coke/Benoit were done, we're going to Ryan Perry to hold Texas in extra innings. If you give me a Mike Adams vs. Ryan Perry inning, I take Adams every time.
Three things have to happen for the Tigers to win the ALCS now: first, Cabrera and V-Mart have to get hitting. If those guys are cold, we're done. Simple as that. Secondly, they need to cash in at least some of the time when runners are on base. In truth, those two problems are the same problem - if the first is solved, it takes care of the second, and if the second is solved, odds are the first is how it got solved. Third, the Tigers have to win every game at home. If they drop any of Games 3-5, they lose in Texas in Game 6. End of series. No kidding.
Starting pitching has been pretty good, all things considered, as good as you can ask against a team like Texas. The good relievers - Coke/Benoit/Valverde - have been solid, too. The bats just need to answer the bell.
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